Dan Dreyfus：铜才是 AI 的下一个瓶颈
We've got Dan Drifus on the show.
今天节目嘉宾是 Dan Dreyfus。
He's with Fortnite Capital.
他代表 Bornite Capital。
We're going to be measuring human progress by how much electricity we consume.
我们将用电力消耗量来衡量人类的进步。
The semiconductor industry, I view that as an industrial or infrastructure company.
半导体行业，在我看来本质上是一个工业或基础设施行业。
I mean, it's effectively a factory.
说到底，它就是一座工厂。
We try to figure out where the world is going and then we try to figure out what we're going to need to get there.
我们的工作是判断世界走向，再弄清楚实现那个未来需要什么。
In the next 10 minutes, I am going to try to teach you about critical minerals, commodities, our incredibly fragile infrastructure here in the US that is going to require trillions and trillions of dollars of investment if we want to achieve our technological objectives, our reshoring, re-industrialization objectives, and our national security and military objectives.
接下来十分钟，我要给大家讲关键矿产、大宗商品，以及美国这套极度脆弱的基础设施，要实现我们的技术目标、制造业回流与再工业化目标，以及国家安全与军事目标，就必须投入数以万亿计的资金。
news.
说正题。
But first, a little bit of history.
但首先，先讲一点历史背景。
We are at a very significant inflection point right now in US economic growth and what it's going to look like.
我们现在正处于美国经济增长方式的一个极为重要的拐点。
really from the early 2000s until just a few years ago, the US went through effectively what I think was an economic miracle where we created so much growth, so much market cap, so much value without really having to invest any capital at all.
从本世纪初一直到几年前，美国经历了一段我认为堪称经济奇迹的时期，几乎不需要投入任何资本，就创造出了惊人的增长、市值和价值。
I mean, think of all the companies that were created with no capital.
想想那些无需资本就建立起来的公司。
You had Google with the search engine.
有 Google 的搜索引擎。
You had Meta with social media.
有 Meta 的社交媒体。
They bought WhatsApp for $30 billion with 12 employees, you know, no capital whatsoever.
他们用 300 亿美元、12 名员工收购了 WhatsApp，几乎不花任何资本。
You had the streaming platforms.
还有流媒体平台。
You had the food delivery platforms.
还有外卖配送平台。
You had Apple computer which was Capital Light created trillions of market cap.
还有 Apple，轻资本模式，创造了数万亿的市值。
You had software as a service.
还有软件即服务 SaaS。
Absolutely no capital required to create all that value.
创造了所有这些价值，完全不需要资本投入。
And at the same time we were creating these companies, at the same time we were doing that, we were literally tearing down all of our critical infrastructure and moving it overseas to China.
而与此同时，就在我们建立这些公司的时候，我们却把大量关键基础设施拆掉，搬到了中国。
So we were really doubling down on that capital light mentality.
我们是真的在加倍押注轻资本模式。
But then it sort of started to come back to bite us, right?
但这开始反噬我们了，对吗？
We had COVID, we had the Russia Ukraine conflict, we had the tariffs, now we have the Iranian conflict.
我们经历了新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、关税战，现在又有伊朗冲突。
And every time we had one of these geopolitical flare-ups, inflation spiked like a rocket.
每一次地缘政治危机爆发，通货膨胀就像火箭一样飙升。
You need a telescope to see how high inflation went.
你需要望远镜才能看到通胀涨到了多高。
And it never came down.
而且从未回落。
And the reason for that is we let our supply chains get way too fragile and way too weak.
根本原因是我们让供应链变得极度脆弱、极度薄弱。
And there's no resiliency in the supply chains.
供应链毫无韧性可言。
And now we're at this inflection point where we want to reshore everything that we tore down and moved to China.
现在我们来到了这个拐点：我们想把所有拆掉、迁往中国的东西都搬回来。
We want to re-industrialize.
我们要实现再工业化。
We have this technological compute revolution that is infinitely more infrastructure intensive than compute was in the last generations.
这场计算技术革命对基础设施的依赖程度，远超以往任何一代。
And this is creating this really wild demand shock for infrastructural critical minerals commodities at the same time where there's a supply shock because we just haven't invested in this stuff for so now.
这正在制造一场真正狂野的需求冲击，对基础设施类关键矿产大宗商品的需求，同时还叠加了供给冲击，因为我们在这方面已经太久没有投入了。
There are so many capital cycles going on at the same time.
当前同时并行的资本周期数量之多，令人叹为观止。
I've never seen this many going on at the same time in my career.
我职业生涯中从未见过这么多资本周期同时启动。
We have the aerospace cycle.
我们有航空航天周期。
Boing and Airbus have a trillion dollars of backlog over the next 10 years.
波音和空客未来十年的订单积压高达一万亿美元。
Now throw in the space economy which is going to compete for the exact same materials and backlog that Boeing and Airbus are trying to source.
再加上太空经济，它将与波音和空客争夺完全相同的材料和供应资源。
We have the grid right anytime it gets a little bit cold in Texas.
还有电网，每逢德克萨斯州稍微降温。
The Eurot the Texas grid's not connected not connected to the rest of the US grid.
德克萨斯州的电网与美国其他地区的电网没有互联。
Every time it gets a little bit cold that grid shuts down and they're freezing in the dark.
每次天气稍微变冷，那个电网就会崩溃，人们在黑暗中受冻。
Then we've got, you know, here in California, Paradise, California, that power line that caught on fire and killed 300 people.
还有加利福尼亚州天堂镇，那根引发大火、夺走 300 条人命的输电线。
Did you know that that power line was over 106 years old?
你知道那根输电线已经超过 106 年历史了吗？
There's parts of the grid in this country that are over 106 years old.
这个国家有些电网基础设施的历史超过 106 年。
And here in California, if half the people buy electric cars or there's robo taxis and we all go and plug them in at 6:00 p.m. after work and turn up the air conditioning, we're just going to kill the grid.
就在加州，如果一半的人买了电动车，或者满大街都是无人驾驶出租车，大家都在下班后六点钟一起插上充电器、打开空调，我们就会直接把电网打垮。
Boom.
轰。
We're going to kill it.
直接打垮。
We're all going to be sitting in the dark.
大家都会坐在黑暗中。
So, the grid barely works for what we need it for right now.
所以，电网目前勉强够用。
And we haven't even started talking about the tsunami of demand, electricity demand that AI is going to bring.
而我们甚至还没开始讨论 AI 带来的那场电力需求海啸。
And there's power generation.
还有发电端。
You know, we've let China go and build multiples more power generation than what we have here.
我们让中国建造了比我们多出好几倍的发电能力。
And this is a trillion dollar plus capital cycle.
这是一个规模超过万亿美元的资本周期。
That's probably going to be a trillion dollars every 10 years for the next 30 years.
未来 30 年，大概每 10 年就要投入一万亿美元。
data centers.
数据中心。
This is now a trillion dollars per year.
这现在是每年一万亿美元。
Per year, all infrastructure, all all commodities.
每年，全是基础设施，全是大宗商品。
Then there's semifabs.
还有半导体晶圆厂。
Um the CPU is making a huge resurgence.
CPU 正在强势回归。
CPU intensity is is going up like a rocket.
CPU 需求强度正像火箭一样飙升。
And and I I bet you this number is way too low.
而且我打赌这个数字还是低估了。
$750 billion.
7500 亿美元。
I bet you that's going to be measured in the trillions.
我打赌实际规模会是万亿级别的。
And then there's defense, right?
还有国防，对吧？
Everybody, you know, Taiwan's turned into a porcupine.
你知道，台湾已经把自己变成了一只刺猬。
Japan's raising their defense budgets.
日本在提高国防预算。
Europe's raising their defense budgets, the US raising their defense budgets.
欧洲在提高国防预算，美国也在提高国防预算。
What the similarity is amongst all of these end markets is none of them will work without critical minerals.
这些终端市场的共同点是：没有关键矿产，一样都运转不了。
None of it.
一样都不行。
None of this can happen.
这一切都无从实现。
And so here's the problem.
所以问题来了。
Last April, China announced that they were going to cut off exports of some critical materials to the US.
去年四月，中国宣布将切断向美国出口部分关键材料。
Samarium, Gandelinium, Turbium, Dprosium, Lutium, Scandium, Yitriium, herbium, silver, just cut it off.
钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇、铒、银，直接切断。
And we're close to a lot of big industrial supply chains.
我们与很多大型工业供应链的关系极为紧密。
and the cut off of Samrium cobalt magnets, we learned that the Ford Motor Company was within days, literally days of their entire production line shutting down, the whole Ford Motor Company.
钐钴磁铁断供之后，我们得知福特汽车公司距离整条生产线停摆只有几天，真的就是几天。
And same with McDonald Douglas, too, by the way.
麦道公司也一样，顺便说一句。
And this put people in the Department of War, Department of Energy into a panic.
这让国防部和能源部的人陷入了恐慌。
And to their credit, they're doing something really aggressive and really important.
值得称道的是，他们正在采取非常积极、非常重要的行动。
They are now going around to small resource owners across the US and into Canada and they're knocking on the doors of these companies that were left for dead in the last 20 years and they're saying here is three pieces of paper.
他们现在正走遍美国和加拿大的中小型资源企业，敲响那些在过去 20 年被遗弃的公司的大门，拿出三张纸。
The first piece of paper is an equity check that we're investing into your company so that you can go and start converting your resource into a mine.
第一张纸是一张股权支票，我们投资你的公司，让你能够把资源开发成矿山。
And then the company says, "Oh, that's great.
然后公司说，太好了。
Wow, that's that's that's a shock.
哇，这真是太意外了。
But you know, the problem is I've been waiting on my permit for the last 20 years.
但问题是，我的许可证申请已经等了 20 年了。
Nobody wants to give me a permit.
没有人愿意给我发许可证。
They say, "Oh, look at the second piece of paper.
他们说，你再看看第二张纸。
There's your permit.
这是你的许可证。
Go and start building right now."
现在就去开工吧。
And then they show them a third piece of paper and then the company says, "What's this?"
然后他们拿出第三张纸，公司问，这是什么？
And they say, "This is an offtake agreement.
他们说，这是一份包销协议。
Take or pay with a minimum floor price that's going to guarantee you a very high internal rate of return on your project where you can keep all the upside above the minimum price.
照单全收，设有最低保底价，保证你的项目能获得非常高的内部收益率，最低价以上的超额收益全部归你。
But here's a minimum price that you can go out and raise a bunch of capital to get this thing fasttracked and up and running.
但这里有一个最低保底价，你可以凭此去融到大量资本，快速推进、上马投产。
Now, China has an absolute grip.
而现在，中国对所有这些关键矿产掌握着绝对控制权。
It's absolute on all of these critical minerals.
是绝对的控制。
And it's going to take at least 10 years, probably 20 to catch up.
要追上至少需要 10 年，可能要 20 年。
But we got to start somewhere because we just can't have China leading over us and squeezing our testicles every time that we don't do something that they don't like and say,"We're going to cut off your exports.
但我们必须从某处开始，因为我们不能任由中国踩在我们头上，每次我们做了他们不喜欢的事，就卡住我们的要害，威胁要切断出口。
So, we're going to cough our exports of critical minerals and you guys are going to freeze in the dark.
所以，我们要切断对你们的关键矿产出口，让你们在黑暗中受冻。
So, I give a lot of credit to the administration for doing this.
所以，我非常肯定政府在这方面的行动。
And really, you know, I've done commodities now for 25 years and I've never seen something like this happen before.
说真的，我做大宗商品已经做了 25 年，从没见过这种情况。
It's truly what I call a vuja day moment, which is the overwhelming feeling that none of this has ever happened before.
这真的是我所说的「似曾未历」时刻，那种铺天盖地的感觉，这一切从来没有发生过。
So, here's copper.
来看看铜。