特朗普-习近平峰会、Benioff："这不是我第一次经历 SaaS 末日"、OpenAI 对抗 Apple、多感知 AI、厄尔尼诺

All right, everybody. 好了，各位。 Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world, the allin podcast. 欢迎回到全球第一播客，All-In Podcast。 Episode 273. 第273期。 It's a huge week. 这周大事不断。 Saxs is our show. 这是Sacks的show。 We got to get Mark Beni off, CEO of Salesforce. 今天请来了Salesforce CEO，Mark Benioff。 I'm the only one left here. 就剩我一个了。 You're the only one left. 就剩你一个了。 That's why that's how I made it on. 所以我才能上节目。 No software CEOs, right, to China. 没有软件CEO去中国，对吧。 There's no software uh CEOs in China. 中国这边没有软件CEO。 Interesting. 有意思。 But did you get the invite? 但你收到邀请了吗？ What's your what's your status with this administration because you were obviously very famous for, you know, being a Democrat on the left? 你和这届政府的关系怎么样？因为大家都知道你之前是个很出名的左派民主党人。 Um, and 嗯，然后 I'm not a Democrat on the left. 我不是左派民主党人。 I never have been. 从来都不是。 What are you talking about? 你在说什么？ You donated to all these folks and now you're kind of in Trump's camp. 你给这些人捐了款，现在又站到特朗普那边了。 What is it? 怎么回事？ Listen, um, uh, the number one thing is, hey, I'm here to support the country. 听着，最重要的一点是，我在这里是为了支持国家。 That's what I do. 这就是我做的事。 Yeah. 是的。 So, you're right in the middle. 所以你站在中间。 You have uh an allegiance to America. 你对美国有忠诚。 I hope so. 希望如此。 Yeah. 是的。 I'm not a Democrat or Republican. 我既不是民主党也不是共和党。 You're an independent. 你是独立派。 I'm an American. 我是美国人。 Okay. 好的。 I like it. 我喜欢。 Ben off got the invite to the two hottest tickets. Benioff拿到了两张最热门的入场券。 He got the invite to Windsor Castle in Tales and then he got the invite uh when Prince Charles came here too. 他受邀去了温莎堡在泰尔斯，然后查尔斯王子来这边时他也受邀了。 I saw he was in Tales then too. 我看到他那时也在泰尔斯。 And also we were at that Saudi dinner too. 还有，我们也参加了那个沙特晚宴。 Weren't you there? 你没去吗？ I did not go to that one. 那个我没去。 All right. 好了。 Well, we have a big docket here. 今天有很多议题要谈。 The Trumpi summit has begun. 特习峰会开始了。 That is the number one story right now after a two-month delay because of the war in Iran. 这是当前头号新闻，因为伊朗战争延误了两个月。 This is the first visit to China since 2017. 这是自2017年以来特朗普首次访华。 Seventh face-to-face meeting for Trump and President Xi. 特朗普和习主席第七次面对面会谈。 There are 12 hours, 15 hours ahead of us. 还有12到15个小时在我们前面。 Today, Thursday was officially day one. 今天，周四，正式是第一天。 Here's what happened. 发生了什么。 China agreed that the straight of Hormuz should remain open with no military commitment and that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. 中国同意霍尔木兹海峡应保持开放，没有军事承诺，伊朗不应拥有核武器。 So, we're in sync on that. 在这一点上我们立场一致。 On Taiwan, this is a little spicy. 关于台湾，这有点辣。 She warned that quote if handled poorly the two countries will collide or even clash putting the entire USChina relationship in an extremely dangerous situation. 习警告说，如果处理不当，两国将碰撞甚至冲突，使整个中美关系陷入极度危险的境地。 Poly market says Taiwan is safe for 2026 only 6% chance China invades this year on 23 million in volume which is a lot of volume 17% chance roughly triple that something happens by the end of 2027. Polymarket显示台湾2026年安全，今年中国入侵的概率仅6%，2300万美元的交易量相当大，到2027年底发生某些事的概率约17%，是三倍左右。 There's been a lot of debate. 关于这个有很多讨论。 Uh some people say it will happen after Trump is out of office. 有人说会在特朗普卸任后发生。 Some people think it's going to happen while he's in office on trade. 有人认为会在他任期内，在贸易问题上。 She committed to buy more soybeans, US oil, LNG, and 200 Boeing jets. 习承诺购买更多大豆、美国石油、LNG和200架波音飞机。 She said the talks laid out a vision for constructive, strategic, and stable ties. 习说会谈为建立建设性、战略性和稳定的关系勾勒了愿景。 Uh Trump was effusive in his praise uh for his friendship, giving the disclaimer that people don't like it when he praises she. 特朗普在称赞自己与习的友谊时相当热情，并加了一个免责声明说人们不喜欢他称赞习。 Let's stop here and have a bit of a discussion. 我们来停一下，讨论一下。 Freedberg, you uh have been a bit obsessed with this relationship and the bipolar nature of it. Friedberg，你一直对这段关系以及它的两极性很着迷。 What are your thoughts here? 你怎么看？ And what is the goal for Trump? 特朗普的目标是什么？ What is winning for Trump coming out of this? 从这次会谈中走出来，什么叫特朗普赢了？ What is winning for she? 什么叫习赢了？ I mean, she made comments in his uh opening remarks that it would be ideal if the United States and China could avoid the Thusidities trap, which as you'll recall, we talked about with Graeme Allison and we've talked about several times over the last few years that as a a rising power meets a kind of declining power, there's always some moment where you end up in this kind of state of conflict. 我是说，习在开场白中提到，如果中美能避免修昔底德陷阱会很理想，就是你们记得的那个，我们和Graham Allison讨论过，这几年多次提到的，当崛起的大国遇上衰退的大国，总会有某个时刻走向冲突的状态。 And the question is, can the US and China avoid conflict and find a path to cooperation, which has happened a few times in history when we found ourselves in this moment, but doesn't often happen. 问题是，中美能否避免冲突，找到合作的路径，这在历史上有过几次，但并不常见。 And I think the way to kind of think about the opportunity is if you're in a resource expansive world where you are increasing productivity and increasing production globally at an accelerating pace, perhaps there's less of a reason to have conflict. 我觉得看待这个机会的方式是，如果你处在资源扩张的世界，全球生产力和产出以加速的节奏提升，也许就没那么多冲突的理由了。 Perhaps there's a way that uh both societies, both countries can increase the quality of life for their people without taking it away from the other side. 也许两个社会、两个国家都能在不损害对方的情况下提升本国人民的生活质量。 And in a world where you're more resource constrained or resource static, that becomes less possible. 而在资源受限或静止的世界里，这就难以实现了。 You have to fight and grab land and grab territory and grab resources from the other side. 你得抢夺土地、领土和资源。 And it seems like in this moment when we are seeing these extraordinary technology shifts unlocked by AI and automation and biotech and all of these kind of moments of which could be true abundance ahead of us. 在这个时刻，AI、自动化、生物技术等一系列非凡的技术变革正在涌现，前方可能是真正的丰盛。 It seems like the perfect moment to say hey maybe the world can be more multipolar. 现在正是说出「也许世界可以更多极」的最佳时机。 It doesn't need to be uniolar. 不必是单极。 It doesn't need to be bipolar but everyone can participate in the expansion of the pie. 也不必是两极，每个人都可以参与蛋糕的扩大。 And I think that that's kind of the idealistic way to look at the opportunity in front of the administration and Chinese leadership right now. 我觉得这是看待当前政府和中国领导层面前机会的理想主义方式。 Is there a way to kind of look at the next 30 years and ask the question, how do we all share proportionally in growing the pie and not find ourselves in a moment of conflict where we assume the pie is static? 能不能展望未来30年，问一个问题：我们怎样按比例共同做大蛋糕，而不是在蛋糕固定的假设下走向冲突？ That's I think hopefully the message that comes out of this from an administration political perspective. 希望这是从政治层面从这次会谈中传出来的信息。 It just seems like this is going to be a major coup for the president if he can walk away with a series of trade deals with China that increase job security, increase prosperity, increase income levels, increase investment in America and American jobs. 如果总统能走出去带回一系列对华贸易协议，增加就业安全感、提升繁荣、提高收入水平、增加对美国和美国就业的投资，这对总统来说将是一次重大胜利。 It would be a huge win. 那将是巨大的胜利。 And I think that's the tactical stuff that people will be truly looking for. 我认为这是人们真正期待看到的战术层面的东西。 And I think the big strategic question which I care most about which is avoiding conflict. 我最关心的大战略问题是避免冲突。 Is there a way we can chart an economic and cooperative path that doesn't involve eating each other and involves sharing in a bigger pie? 我们能不能走出一条经济合作的路径，不需要互相蚕食，而是共享更大的蛋糕？ Chimoth, why is Trump bringing all of these CEOs with him and what does success look like uh coming out of this meeting? Chamath，特朗普为什么带着这些CEO同行，这次会议结束后成功是什么样子？ I think that you find a resolution and a path forward with China through economic cooperation. 我认为，通过经济合作能找到与中国的解决方案和前进路径。 It's the largest consumer economy in the world. 中国是世界上最大的消费经济体。 It's still largely closed off. 还基本上是封闭的。 And so I think what this is was about bringing some amount of financial firepower with them so that they could start to penetrate that market. 所以我认为这次是要带着一些金融火力去，开始打入那个市场。 Planes, cars, chips, you know, very much hard equipment type stuff. 飞机、汽车、芯片，很多硬件类的东西。 I've said this before, but I think the Chinese are very much a top- down confusion societal philosophy, whereas Americans are much more bottoms up kind of an individualist construction. 我之前说过，我认为中国人非常自上而下的儒家社会哲学，而美国人更多是自下而上的个人主义。 The fact that we're so different actually gives us a lot of room to find cooperation and not find conflict. 我们如此不同，反而为找到合作而非冲突留下了很大空间。 And I think at the center of that is economic cooperation. 核心还是经济合作。 I had a friend call me this morning, very prominent Democrat. 今天早上有个朋友打电话给我，一位很有名气的民主党人。 And you know, he was the one that called out the media, which I was surprised by, and he said, you know, the media gets it all wrong because they're talking about why is he bringing these CEOs? 他批评媒体，这让我挺意外的，他说媒体完全搞错了，因为他们在问为什么要带这些CEO？ And instead the reality is that the simplest and shest path to a no conflict dant with China is economic entanglement and it has to be birectional because really for so many years it's been one way where they're sending us the cheap goods that they've wanted. 而现实是，与中国实现无冲突共存最简单直接的路径就是经济绑定，而且必须是双向的，因为多年来一直是单向的，他们把廉价商品卖给我们。 So I think strategically it's good and I think you know I'll just take a slightly different take on what Freick said. 所以我认为战略上是对的，我会从稍微不同的角度补充Friedberg说的。 I think behind closed doors they're probably just figuring out how to divide the pie. 我认为在闭门会谈中，他们可能只是在想办法分蛋糕。 Uh unpack that for a second. 稍微展开一下。 divide which pie the the globe the economy the the western hemisphere versus 分哪个蛋糕，全球的？经济的？西半球还是 look China 你看，中国 China still needs a lot of energy 中国还需要大量能源，