All-In 最佳投资点子路演大赛：四位投资人现场分享各自最看好的交易
Maybe you could tell us a little bit about how you selected our presenters and your vision for this.
你能跟我们说说你是如何挑选今天的演讲者的，以及你对这个活动的愿景吗？
I mean for any of you guys who've been involved in Ira this is a gentleman that passed away from cancer far too young and his family created this thing called the sone foundation and they would host this event and it started in Lincoln Center and they would ask these managers and so at the time I was like a young venture investor and I got this invite and I showed up in New York at Lincoln Center in 2015 and I said Amazon's going to be a trillion dollar company and I was laughed out of the room.
我是说，对于你们中间曾经接触过 Ira 的人来说，这位先生因癌症英年早逝，他的家人因此创立了一个叫做 Sone 基金会的组织，他们会举办这个活动，最初是在林肯中心，他们邀请这些基金经理来参加，那时候我还是一个年轻的风险投资人，我收到了邀请，2015 年来到纽约林肯中心，我说亚马逊将成为一家万亿美元的公司，然后我就被轰出去了。
Uh David Einhorn, who's a friend of mine, but who was totally wrong, said, "I know trillion dollar companies.
David Einhorn 是我的朋友，但他完全错了，他说：「我了解万亿美元级别的公司。
This is not a trillion dollar company."
这家公司绝不是。」
Wrong.
大错特错。
It turned out to be a great bet.
结果证明这是一笔很好的赌注。
I went back.
我又回去了。
I did Tesla in 2016.
2016 年我做了特斯拉。
We picked the converts.
我们选的是可转债。
And then in 2017, I was like, "All right, this is my this is this is it.
然后在 2017 年，我心想，好了，这就是它了。
This is my magnumopus."
这就是我的巅峰之作。
And I said, "AI is the future."
我说：「AI 是未来。」
And then I picked box.
然后我选了 Box。
I was like, if I had just picked Nvidia, I would have been an Irish legend legend and I could have retired.
我想，如果当时我选的是英伟达，我现在就是爱尔兰的传奇人物，早就可以退休了。
Anyway, so we wanted to recreate Iris and start to get these great managers who are making great picks, making a ton of money for their LPs.
不管怎样，我们想重现 Iris，让这些做出了出色选择、为 LP 赚了大钱的优秀基金经理有机会出现在这里。
They don't get the distribution and so it's just a chance to like get to know some of these names.
他们平时没有曝光机会，这就是一个让大家认识这些名字的机会。
You don't have to see them on CNBC.
你不需要在 CNBC 上看到他们。
You'll see them here more and more often.
你会越来越频繁地在这里看到他们。
And we can just get to Opine.
我们可以直接发表意见。
Roll the video.
播放视频。
Yeah.
好的。
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the best ideas pitch.
女士们先生们，欢迎来到最佳投资点子路演大赛。
Let's meet our contestants.
我们来认识一下今天的参赛者。
Anyone should be able to trade any asset anywhere in the world, anytime, 24/7, with just an internet connection and a phone in their pocket.
任何人都应该能够在任何地方、任何时间，7 天 24 小时，只需一部手机和一个网络连接，交易任何资产。
We're building a new financial system from the ground up here.
我们正在从零开始搭建一套全新的金融体系。
People are going to want to own equities, and it's going to be fun.
人们会想持有股票，这会很有意思。
In the next couple years, companies going to innovate and create products and applications, and that's where hopefully long short managers like us can make a boatload of money.
在未来几年，公司将不断创新，推出新产品和新应用，这正是我们这类多空对冲基金经理有望大赚一笔的地方。
My fund, Eco R1 Capital, which is based in San Francisco, thinks of investing in biotech in a slightly different way.
我的基金 EcoR1 Capital 总部位于旧金山，我们以略有不同的方式看待生物科技投资。
We're looking for unfollowed, unloved, misunderstood biotech companies.
我们寻找那些无人关注、无人喜欢、被市场误解的生物科技公司。
It's an amazing moment in time for those types of companies.
对于这类公司来说，现在是一个绝佳时机。
There's been a structural and permanent perception shift where both sides of the aisle are going to be leaning into nuclear in a big way.
核电在两党之间已经发生了结构性、永久性的认知转变，双方都将大力押注核能。
I'm massively optimistic.
我对此极度乐观。
You know, all of this leads me to just the maximum risk on.
你知道，这一切都让我达到了最大化风险敞口的状态。
Thanks the besties for having me.
感谢 Besties 邀请我。
And this is obviously a fabulous event you guys have put on.
你们举办的这个活动显然非常精彩。
I'm happy to be here.
很高兴来到这里。
Um, for those of you who don't know me, um, I run a $4 billion firm in New York called Serreta Capital.
对于不认识我的朋友，我在纽约经营一家规模 40 亿美元的基金，叫做 Suvretta Capital。
Um, before founding my firm, I was, uh, I ran the equities business for George Soros.
在创立自己的基金之前，我曾负责 George Soros 的股票业务。
Uh, I was then CIO for Steve Cohen.
之后我担任 Steve Cohen 的首席投资官。
Uh, and I've been doing hedge funds now for 29 years.
到现在我已经做了 29 年的对冲基金。
So, um, definitely on the older edge of my my pure group.
所以在我这个圈子里，我绝对算是老资历了。
Um, so I was thinking about, you know, I run a generalist fund.
我在想，我经营的是一个综合型基金。
Um, and you know, we own a bunch of tech stocks, but you know, given this audience here, for me to pitch a tech stock would be absolutely completely stupid.
我们持有不少科技股，但面对这个观众群体，向大家推荐科技股简直太蠢了。
Um, so I was thinking about what else.
所以我在想还能推荐什么别的。
And you know, obviously the theme of this conference besides tech is poker.
这次大会除了科技，另一个主题显然是扑克。
So I'm going to pitch to you MGM.
所以我要向大家推荐 MGM。
Now most of you know MGM as uh you think about it as the Vegas um company.
你们大多数人了解 MGM，把它当成拉斯维加斯的代表公司。
They own 13 properties in Vegas.
他们在拉斯维加斯拥有 13 处房产。
Um they're one they're them and Caesars are the two largest owners of uh casino assets in Vegas.
他们和 Caesars 是拉斯维加斯两家最大的赌场资产持有方。
Um now if you notice um the other day um Caesars got taken out.
你们可能注意到，前几天 Caesars 被收购了。
Um and so we think Vegas is actually starting to improve.
所以我们认为拉斯维加斯实际上正开始好转。
Um but I'm not here to pitch MGM because of Vegas.
但我今天来推荐 MGM，不是因为拉斯维加斯。
What I'm going to tell you is there's a couple of things we noticed.
我要告诉你们的是，我们注意到了几件事。
One is this company's been very aggressively been stock's been aggressively acquired by Barry Dillard lately.
其一是，这家公司的股票最近被 Barry Diller 大举买入。
Um Barry now owns 26% of the company.
Barry 目前已持有公司 26% 的股份。
Um now I put this presentation together two weeks ago.
我是两周前整理这份报告的。
Yesterday he actually bid for the company.
昨天他实际上提出了要约收购。
Okay.
好的。
So when I put the presentation together the stock was about $37.
我整理报告时股价大约在 37 美元。
It's now high40s.
现在已经涨到 40 美元出头了。
He bid $48.
他出价 48 美元。
Okay.
好的。
I would not sell my shares to him.
我不会把我的股票卖给他。
When did we get this presentation?
我们是什么时候收到这份报告的？
Did we get it early enough to trans?
我们收到的时间够早，能做空吗？
Uh I would not sell his I would not sell my stock to him for a second.
我根本不会把我的股票卖给他，一秒钟都不卖。
And the reason is also besides him buying the stock, the company's also been buying the stock.
原因不仅在于他在买股票，公司本身也在回购股票。
Rarely have I ever seen a company in 6 years buy half their float back.
我很少见到一家公司在 6 年内回购了一半的流通股。
So you have Barry Diller who's the legend aggressively buying the stock and it's also now 80% of his NAV.
所以你既有传奇人物 Barry Diller 在大举买入，而且这笔持仓已占到他净资产的 80%。
Okay.
好的。
So you most people think of Barry Diller as the ABC producer.
大多数人对 Barry Diller 的印象还停留在他是 ABC 的制片人。
He did I which owned assets like Expedia and now he's a casino guy.
他做过 IAC，旗下拥有 Expedia 等资产，现在他摇身一变成了赌场大亨。
What is going on here?
这是怎么回事？
So we spent a lot of time um asking ourselves why um and why is MGM has two hidden assets.
所以我们花了大量时间思考，为什么 MGM 会有两项隐藏资产。
Okay.
好的。
The first one is, and this is sort of our the punchline of what we think the stock is worth.
第一项，也是我们认为股票价值所在的核心亮点。
So you add the Vegas assets plus China, you get about little low60s.
如果把拉斯维加斯资产加上中国业务，大约能得到 60 出头的估值。
So from $48 or 37 when I started this, great return.
那么从 48 美元或者我开始研究时的 37 美元算，回报已经相当不错了。
What is they what they have now is a license to open a casino in Aaka, Japan.
他们现在持有的是在日本大阪开设赌场的许可证。
Japan a couple years ago went through a whole referendum around the country.
几年前，日本全国就此进行了公投。
They have prefixures.
他们有各都道府县。
The prefixures voted.
各都道府县进行了投票。
The only one that decided to own open a casino is Osaka.
唯一决定开放赌场的是大阪。
Now Osaka is and this is what the asset's going to look like.
大阪就是这样，这就是这个资产未来的样貌。
It's going to open in 2030.
将于 2030 年开业。
If you go to the company slide presentations, they sort of mention this, but they're not really talking about it.
如果你去看公司的投资者介绍材料，他们多少提到了这一点，但并没有大肆宣传。
Um, Japan, just for you people, um, sorry, I don't know, this is very slow.
日本，告诉你们，抱歉，我不知道，这个太慢了。
Um, Japan actually has a reasonably large gambling market.
日本实际上有相当庞大的博彩市场。
They have pachinko parlors and they have horses.
他们有柏青哥和赛马。
That's about a $40 billion market.
那大约是一个 400 亿美元的市场。
If you look at the market in Macau, that's $30 billion.
如果看澳门市场，规模是 300 亿美元。
And if you look at Vegas, it's only $10 billion.
拉斯维加斯呢，只有 100 亿美元。
So, this could be a massive opportunity.
所以这可能是一个巨大的机遇。
Um, you know, we're estimating they'll do about $2 billion of IBIDA.
我们估计他们将产生约 20 亿美元的 EBITDA。
They own 40% of the property.
他们持有该物业 40% 的权益。
Um, they also get a management fee for this.
他们还会收取管理费。
Um, if you also look at where Osaka is located, it's a great, you know, so the Japanese like to gamble, but the Chinese really gamble.
另外，看看大阪的地理位置，日本人喜欢赌博，中国人则更是热衷于此。
Okay.
好的。
So, if you look at where it is from Shanghai, it's shorter than Macau and Singapore, which are the two big gaming options in Asia.
所以如果你看它距离上海的距离，比澳门和新加坡都要近，而那两个是亚洲两大博彩目的地。
And from and from Beijing, about the same distance as Macau, and obviously much shorter than going to Singapore.
从北京出发，与澳门距离差不多，当然比去新加坡近得多。