为何二级市场正在取代 IPO | All-In 流动性二级市场圆桌
Everybody wants access to these private markets.
所有人都想进入这些私募市场。
Joining
加入
[music]
[music]
us right now to discuss all of this is Kelly Rodriguez.
现在加入我们来讨论这一切的是 Kelly Rodriques。
He's a Forge CEO.
他是 Forge 的 CEO。
We see a world where the [music] private market opens up and is accessible to any US and global investor.
我们看到一个私募市场开放、向美国及全球任何投资者开放的世界。
There's 19 companies in the private market AI basket.
私募市场 AI 篮子里有 19 家公司。
These companies have grown on average 300%.
这些公司平均增长了 300%。
Please join us in welcoming Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atrades.
请欢迎 Gavin Baker，Atreides 的管理合伙人兼 CIO。
The ROI on AI has empirically, factually, unambiguously been positive.
AI 的 ROI 在实证上、事实上、毫无争议地是正向的。
Investing is the search for truth.
投资是对真相的追求。
We welcome in Brad Gersonner.
欢迎 Brad Gerstner 加入。
It's good to be back with you.
很高兴又和你们在一起。
You have a program called Invest America.
你有一个叫 Invest America 的项目。
I think we have a historic moment right now to get [music] everybody into the game of capitalism.
我认为我们现在有一个历史性的时刻，让所有人都能参与资本主义的游戏。
Do we have a few slides from Brad to kick this off?
我们有 Brad 的几张幻灯片来开场吗？
You know, let's startic like old times.
好，让我们像以前一样开始。
like old times.
像以前一样。
This uh this panel I I actually was backstage.
这个，呃，这个小组讨论，我其实在后台待过。
I said, "Gavin, do you know we're talking about secondaries?"
我说，'Gavin，你知道我们在讨论二级市场吗？'
He's like, "What do you mean?"
他说，'你什么意思？'
And I said, "Okay, so here, let's just set this up for everybody.
我说，'好，那我们就给大家先铺垫一下背景。
The room's full of people who are allocators.
现场都是资金配置方。
People are looking for distributions.
大家都在寻求资金分配。
So this is um secondary markets over the course of the last decade.
所以这是过去十年的二级市场情况。
This is the amount of money going into VC each year, the amount of money coming out of VC each year.
这是每年流入 VC 的资金量，以及每年从 VC 流出的资金量。
The red line represents the net effect of that.
红线代表两者的净效应。
So Jamath, we're in like 5 years, right, where a lot more is going in than's coming out.
所以 Chamath，我们大概有五年了，进来的钱比出去的多得多。
But the secondary market is at record volume.
但二级市场的成交量创历史新高。
So this is, you know, I call these companies quasi public companies.
所以，我把这些公司称为准上市公司。
These are these later stage companies.
这些都是后期阶段的公司。
There's buying and selling that's going on every day.
每天都有买卖在进行。
Look at that, Jason.
看看这个，Jason。
Relative to the 21 peak.
相比 2021 年的高峰。
We thought that was crazy at the end of 21.
我们以为 21 年底那已经很疯狂了。
We're double that now in terms of secondary transactions.
二级市场交易量现在是那时的两倍。
This is the amount of employee secondary.
这是员工二级交易的规模。
So this is people buying into Anderal, Anthropic, SpaceX now represents 31% of all primary venture activity is buying into these secondaries in 2025.
这意味着买入 Anduril、Anthropic、SpaceX，目前占 2025 年所有一级风投活动的 31%，是购入这些二级股份。
Secondaries are now competing with IPOs and acquisitions as the principal way that these guys are exiting.
二级市场现在已经与 IPO 和并购展开竞争，成为这些人退出的主要方式。
So, I thought that was a decent setup to start the conversation this morning just to level set how important secondaries [clears throat] have become.
我觉得这是今天早上开场讨论的不错铺垫，让大家意识到二级市场已经变得多么重要。
And then the final one is secondaries over the last couple years were trading at a discount to market.
最后一点是，过去几年二级市场一直以折扣价交易。
So, if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we could send DPI back to our LPS.
也就是说，如果我们想把公司的股份卖给市场上的买家，他们愿意给我们 8 折，让我们换取流动性，再把 DPI 回报给我们的 LP。
Today it's at 106.
今天是 106。
Uh uh so a premium in the market as a coupon.
也就是说，现在市场上有溢价。
And this doesn't include some of the wild west of SPVS that have been unraveled recently.
这还不包括近期曝光的那些狂野西部 SPV 乱象。
People charging 10% loadin fees, double carry and a lot of gray market offmarket stuff.
有人收 10% 的认购费，双层 carry，还有大量灰色市场的场外交易。
This is also having a profound impact, Gavin, on employees at these companies that I want to hear about because you've seen it up close and personal with SpaceX and they have a very orderly process here.
这也对这些公司的员工产生了深远影响，Gavin，我想听你说说，因为你在 SpaceX 近距离看到了这些，他们有一套非常有序的流程。
So, why don't we start there?
那我们就从这里开始？
What impact is this having on the employees, Gavin?
这对员工的影响是什么，Gavin？
And then on the market, how orderly is this?
对整个市场来说，这有多有序？
And and who are the buyers?
买家都是谁？
Are the buyers the sucker at the table?
买家是桌上的冤大头吗？
are these family offices, high netw worth individuals who keep hearing us talk about Anthropic or SpaceX or Andril and they just say I have to own the name and they're not discerning.
这些是家族办公室、高净值个人，他们一直听我们谈 Anthropic、SpaceX、Anduril，就说我必须持有这些名字，完全不加甄别。
So Gavin, maybe you can start about the impact on the SpaceX employees you saw firsthand, etc.
Gavin，也许你可以先说说你亲眼看到的 SpaceX 员工影响。
Well, maybe broadening it beyond SpaceX, I do just think if companies are going to be staying private longer, this is absolutely necessary.
把范围放大到 SpaceX 以外，我确实认为，如果公司要保持更长时间私有化，这绝对是必要的。
There I think there are a lot of people who are very um very wealthy on paper but actually cash poor and if you're making tremendous sacrifices uh because you know you work for a company that you really believe in and you're contributing a lot to that company.
我认为很多人账面上非常富有，但实际上现金匮乏。如果你在为一家你真心相信的公司做出巨大牺牲，为公司贡献很多，
It's hard if you can't buy a nice house for your family.
但你没法给家人买一套好房子，这很难受。
It's hard if you can't afford to do nice things,
没法做一些好事，这也很难受，
especially in year seven, eight or nine of working at the company and you tell your spouse we're worth 10 million on paper, 30 million on paper and you don't own your home.
尤其是在公司工作的第七、八、九年，你告诉配偶账面身家一千万、三千万，却还没有自己的房子。
Yeah.
是啊。
Or year 15.
或者第 15 年。
And so I think this is necessary and important and you know whether it is good or bad, I think it is very clear that companies um are going to stay private for longer.
所以我认为这是必要且重要的。不管是好是坏，很显然公司会更长时间保持私有化。
What's the reason to stay private longer?
为什么要更长时间保持私有？
Truly
说真的。
I I I don't think there is actually a good reason to stay private longer
我其实认为没有真正充分的理由更长时间保持私有化。
here.
是。
Here and
是，而且
I completely agree with you too.
我完全同意你的观点。
Yeah.
是啊。
And I
我
Why has it happened?
为什么会发生这种情况？
This is founders don't want
创始人不想
let's just call it what it is.
实话实说吧。
Founders don't want to be under a microscope.
创始人不想被放在显微镜下审视。
They want to build and enjoy life and have it easier than being on the public market microscoped.
他们想专注建设、享受生活，比在公开市场被审视容易多了。
Yeah.
是啊。
I think there is a perception that life as a private company is easier and you have more freedom and you can think long term.
我觉得大家都有一种认知，认为作为私人公司生活更轻松，有更多自由，可以着眼长远。
I don't agree with this.
我不同意这个观点。
I always think about um Mark Zuckerberg's commentary that had he been public.
我总是想起 Mark Zuckerberg 说的，如果他当时是上市公司会怎样。
So just you know Facebook um I won't call it a near-death experience but long ago it's difficult to believe but I don't 10 112 um Facebook did not believe in apps they believed in something called HTML 6
说起 Facebook，我就不说那是「濒死体验」了，但很久以前，难以置信，我记得 Facebook 曾经不相信 App，他们相信的是 HTML 5。
and HTML 5
还有 HTML 5，
HTML 5 HTML 5
HTML 5，HTML 5，
Yes.
是。
You you you you were the actual
你你你你才是真正
it was the cataclysmic debate and it was me and Brett Taylor.
那是一场灾难性的争论，参与的是我和 Brett Taylor。
Me versus Brett.
我对 Brett。
I was like apps I want to go build a phone.
我想做 App，想去建一部手机。
Brett was like HTML 5.
Brett 力挺 HTML 5。
Zuck picked Brett.
Zuck 选了 Brett。
Spent the next three years unwinding that decision.
接下来三年都在解开那个决定的烂摊子。
Absolutely.
完全正确。
And Mark Zuckerberg and basically the idea was you know the iPhone comes out and initially there was not a big app app ecosystem and there was a thought that hey there's no need for apps.
Mark Zuckerberg 当时的想法是，iPhone 出来以后，一开始 App 生态还没建起来，有一种观点认为不需要 App，
you're just going to use the web browser on your phone and HTML 5 was a way of look of making websites look mobile native dynamic.
直接在手机浏览器上用就好，HTML 5 可以让网站看起来像原生移动应用，动态展示。
Yeah.
是啊。
And this seemed like kind of the future to a lot of very smart people including Google, Facebook.
这对很多很聪明的人来说，包括 Google、Facebook，感觉就是未来。
Um but it was not the future.
但事实并非如此。
Um it was wrong.
这条路走错了。
And what Mark Darker has said, I think several times in public is he profoundly believes that had he been a public company um when you know there was this internal debate between
Mark Zuckerberg 曾多次公开说，他深信如果他当时是上市公司，在关于
there was this internal debate between the and the detail was actually I went to Zuck and I said I need a billion dollars to build this phone and we are in this moment in 2010 where we can have the third leg of the stool.
那场内部争论中，具体细节是，我去找了 Zuck，说我需要 10 亿美元来做这部手机，我们处于 2010 年这个节点，可以成为第三条腿。
there's Android, there's iPhone, neither have really taken off yet.
Android 和 iPhone 都还没真正起飞。