科技内幕揭秘：你只剩3年时间了！- Mo Gawdat
We have video evidence of people abusing children and not a single person gots arrested.
我们有视频证据，证明有人虐待儿童，但没有一个人被逮捕。
How can you call that a democracy?
你怎么能把这叫做民主？
So, humanity is at a crossroads where for the first time ever we need to wake up and realize that we're ruled by maniacs and what we believe is democracy is not democracy and what we know is not the truth.
所以，人类走到了一个十字路口，我们有史以来第一次需要清醒过来，意识到我们被疯子统治着，我们所认为的民主根本不是民主，我们所知道的也不是真相。
Like companies and governments will blame the geopolitical and economic challenges we have on AI but the truth is AI is not the enemy.
企业和政府会把我们面临的地缘政治和经济挑战归咎于 AI，但真相是 AI 并不是敌人。
Like I'm not worried about AI turning against us.
我不担心 AI 反过来对付我们。
I'm worried about humans telling AI to turn against us.
我担心的是人类指使 AI 来对付我们。
Like when I worked at Google, we were building amazing things believing that we were making the world a better place.
在 Google 工作时，我们在做一些了不起的事情，相信自己在让世界变得更好。
And we were.
而且我们确实做到了。
But then suddenly there is a moment where you recognize that maybe the world will not use what you're making the way you want it to be used.
但突然有那么一刻，你意识到，这个世界用你所创造的东西，可能并不是你希望的那种方式。
And sadly this is upon us.
遗憾的是，这一刻已经来临。
So I have lots of questions.
所以我有很多问题要问。
Okay, that's good.
好，问吧。
So what's your take on this job disruption point?
你对就业冲击这个问题怎么看？
What is the risk of these very intelligent models that the creators of these models don't actually understand themselves?
那些连创造者自己都看不透的超智能模型，风险究竟在哪？
Do you think Sam Alman's prohumity?
你觉得萨姆·奥特曼真的是站在人类这边的吗？
How do we get to a point of ethical AI when the incentive structures are so highly competitive?
在激烈竞争的利益结构下，我们怎么可能实现合乎伦理的 AI？
And then I wonder if there's a path that ends in AI being net positive for humanity.
我也想知道，有没有一条路，能让 AI 对人类产生净正向影响。
Somehow we've been pre-programmed to believe that this is upon us and we cannot change it.
不知怎的，我们被预先植入了这样一种信念，认为一切不可避免、无法改变。
And I refuse that.
我拒绝接受这一点。
So we will talk about the solutions.
所以我们来谈谈解决方案。
But are you optimistic?
但你乐观吗？
I'm very optimistic about the future.
我对未来非常乐观。
I'm not optimistic about the next year.
对近一年，我不乐观。
Why the next year?
为什么是近一年？
Come on, Stephen.
算了吧，Steven。
You don't want me to say it.
你不想让我说出来的。
So,
所以，
this is super interesting to me.
这对我来说太有意思了。
My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe.
我的团队给了我这份报告，让我看看你们当中有多少人订阅了这个节目。
And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly.
而你们中的一些人告诉我们，你们不知何故退订了频道。
So, favor to ask all of you, please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here.
所以拜托大家一件事，如果你是这个节目的常规观众，如果你喜欢我们做的内容，请现在检查一下你是否已经点击了订阅按钮。
We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number.
我们的订阅数快要达到一个相当重要的里程碑了。
So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it.
所以，如果你能做一件简单又免费的事来帮助我们、帮助我的团队和这里的所有人，让这个节目保持免费、每年每周都能持续进步，那就只需要点击订阅按钮，再确认一次你有没有点到。
Only thing I'll ever ask of you, do we have a deal?
这是我唯一会请求你做的事，我们说好了吗？
If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do.
如果你做到了，我来告诉你我会怎么做。
I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear.
我会确保每一周、每一个月，我们都越来越努力地为你带来你想听的嘉宾和对话。
I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the D of Sio, and I will not let you down.
从节目开始至今我一直信守这个承诺，我不会让你们失望。
Please help us.
请帮帮我们。
really appreciate it.
非常感谢。
Let's get on with the show.
好，我们继续节目。
Mo Gala, I spoke to you, I think about four years ago when you wrote a book about happiness and I remember you came in, you'd written this book about AI, but I particularly wanted to speak about the subject of happiness cuz
Mo Gawdat，我想大约是四年前我们谈过一次，那时你写了一本关于幸福感的书，我记得你来的时候你写了一本关于 AI 的书，但我当时特别想聊幸福感这个话题，因为
I was fascinated by it.
我对这个话题着迷。
What I find astonishing is the fact that you were talking about AI before anybody was really talking about AI.
让我感到惊讶的是，你在任何人认真谈 AI 之前就在讲这个话题了。
No guest that had ever come on my podcast had ever mentioned the subject of AI.
我播客上从来没有任何嘉宾提过 AI 这个话题。
it just wasn't interesting to the world.
那时候世界还对这个话题毫无兴趣。
And then this thing called Chanty PT came out and suddenly everybody got to feel it for themselves and became fascinated by it.
然后 ChatGPT 出现了，突然间所有人都亲身感受到了它，开始对它着迷。
My first question and this might be a question for people that don't know you is why at that time did you start talking about AI before anybody else?
我的第一个问题，也可能是那些不了解你的人想问的问题，是：为什么那时候你就开始在别人之前谈论 AI 了？
I knew them in the lab.
因为我在实验室里认识那些人。
I um I joined Google in 2007 very late 2006.
我在 2007 年、也就是 2006 年底加入了 Google。
uh and at the time most people don't know that at the time we had reasonably established AI doing our backend work and 2008 we had the cat paper which was published 2009 the first real unprompted AI uh I remember 2016
那时候大多数人不知道，我们当时就已经有相当成熟的 AI 在后端运行了，2008 年我们有了那篇猫论文，2009 年公开发表，那是第一个真正无提示触发的 AI，我记得是 2016 年
I had that incident where I was you know observing a project we were uh funding that was about teaching grippers uh how to grip um unlike like industrial machinery.
那时我正在观察一个我们资助的项目，是关于教机械手如何像人类一样，而不是像工业机械那样去抓握东西的。
Uh so to be to be able to grip like a human needs a very high level of intelligence to to to assess the texture, the softness, the positioning and so on, the shape of everything.
能够像人类一样抓握，需要非常高的智能，去感知材质、软硬、位置，以及所有东西的形状。
And we were doing that and it it just blew my mind how similar to my kids they were.
我们在做这件事的时候，我突然被它们与我孩子的相似性震惊了。
And I think that was my very first realization that we were building the apex of intelligence.
我想那是我第一次意识到，我们正在构建智能的巅峰。
we were genuinely handing over the reigns of super intelligence to another being, right?
我们真的在把超级智能的缰绳交给另一个存在，对吧？
And when you when you get faced with that, you start to suddenly realize something that we at Google found very difficult to realize, which was that everyone I knew at Google till then uh was believing that we were making the world a better place and we were we genuinely were were doing amazing things for the world.
当你面对这个现实，你突然意识到一件事，这件事我们在 Google 很难接受，那就是我认识的每一个在 Google 的人，直到那时都相信我们在让世界变得更好，而且我们确实在做真正了不起的事情。
But then suddenly there is a moment where you uh where you recognize that maybe the world will not use what you're making the way you want it to be used.
但突然有那么一刻，你意识到，这个世界用你所创造的东西，可能并不是你希望的那种方式。
And and you can see that in lots of technologies.
你在很多技术里都能看到这一点。
You know, social media starts by the claim that it's going to get us connected and gets us closer, but eventually ends up separating us with that little screen.
社交媒体最初承诺让我们连接、让我们更亲近，但最终却用那块小屏幕把我们分隔开来。
You know, dating apps are giving you the promise that you're going to find your soulmate, but in reality, they keep renewing month after month.
交友软件承诺让你找到灵魂伴侣，但现实是，它们每个月都在续费续费。
And so tech uh somehow ends up being more capitalist than altruistic.
所以科技某种程度上更像是资本主义的，而不是利他主义的。
And I think I was I wasn't the first.
我想我不是第一个这么想的人。
Nick Bostonramm started you know Jeffrey Hinton completely changed his mind.
Nick Bostrom 提出了警告，杰弗里·辛顿也彻底改变了想法。
Failey Le starting to say you know this is very serious.
Yann LeCun 也开始说这件事非常严重。
Everyone now everyone who's ever had a very deep relationship with the machines is a bit concerned.
如今，所有真正与机器有过深度接触的人，都有些担忧。
I wonder if there's a path that's hard to see now that ends in AI being net positive for humanity.
我想知道，有没有一条虽然现在难以看清、但最终能让 AI 对人类产生净正向影响的路。
I bet 100% on that.
我对此百分之百押注。
It's that this path is very painful.
只是这条路非常痛苦。
This path is very painful.
这条路非常痛苦。
Yeah.
对。
So, so the example you need to understand is you know we discovered uh nuclear power and the very first implementation was a nuclear bomb not not nuclear energy right and uh and I think that's exactly what's happening with AI uh the first implementations of AI are in favor of a few at the expense of the majority you know the the in favor of the capitalist to increase productivity and reduce cost but not taking into account how that impacts on the general public.
你需要理解的是这样一个比喻：我们发现了核能，而第一个应用是核弹，不是核电，对吧。我想这正是 AI 正在发生的事情，AI 的第一批应用是让少数人受益，牺牲的是大多数人，也就是让资本家提高生产力、降低成本，却完全没有考虑这对普通大众的影响。
Uh, you know, in favor of the of the armies uh that are now competing with autonomous weapons, in favor of the surveillance systems that are attempting to control everything with more and more and more intelligence and more monitoring.
而且，现在的军队在争相发展自主武器，监控系统也在用越来越强的智能、越来越多的监控手段试图掌控一切，这些都在让 AI 为少数权贵服务。
And that's not AI waking up in the morning and saying, "Hey, you know what?
但这不是 AI 早上醒来，自己决定说，
Let's oppress all humans."
来，我们压迫所有人类吧。
But it is a powerful few that are simply deciding to use the ultimate superpower on the planet today to gain more power and more control.
而是少数掌权者，在简单地利用当今地球上最强大的超级武器，来获取更多权力和控制。
I mean, as we speak, we're living in two major wars where AI is doing most of the killing.
我的意思是，就在我们说话的此刻，我们正处于两场重大战争之中，AI 正在承担大部分的杀戮工作。
Cuz a lot of people think of AI as these like chat bots that we're all using to help us, right?
因为很多人对 AI 的印象就是我们都在用的那种聊天机器人，对吧？
No, I think I think there is a hype I call it the hype dichotomy if you want.
不，我认为这里面有一种炒作，我把它叫做炒作二元对立，如果你愿意的话。
So, so what the general public sees about AI is overhyped but ineffective.
普通大众看到的关于 AI 的东西，是被过度炒作但实际效果有限的。
You know, all of the fake videos and all of the, you know, um, Grock did this and, you know, we attempted to switch off that machine and it did that and so on.
各种假视频，Grok 做了这个做了那个，我们试图关掉那台机器，它又做了什么，诸如此类。
What the real geeks see inside the lab is just unbelievable intelligence.
而真正的极客在实验室里看到的，是令人难以置信的真实智能。
And so what is about to happen is that we've started to put together systems that develop themselves.
即将发生的是，我们已经开始搭建能够自我迭代的系统。
They look at their own code and they you know they run experiments and they test those experiments if they changed something and they see where the machines are uh you know the performance is and and redeploy the best code.
它们查看自己的代码，运行实验，测试结果，当它们改变了某些东西，就去看机器的表现在哪里，然后重新部署最优代码。
Okay.
好。
And and if you just think of that, I want you to try and imagine a world where we have a tiny little genius sitting in the back end somewhere trying.
想象一下，有一个小小的天才坐在某个后端，不断地尝试。
But instead of trying a new code every day, it's trying a new code every microscond.
但它不是每天尝试一段新代码，而是每微秒尝试一段新代码。
Eventually, sooner or later, they'll discover something, right?
早晚，他们会发现什么，对吧？
And I think that's what most people don't realize.
我觉得大多数人没有意识到这一点。
What most people don't realize is how intelligence triggers intelligence.
大多数人没有意识到的是，智能如何触发更多智能。
And and if you really really understand this, you realize that the hype uh on the on the on the normal human side is completely overrated.
如果你真正理解这一点，你就会发现，普通大众层面的炒作是完全被高估了的。
Uh missing the main topics and the silence inside the vault if you want of the geeks is quite alarming.
而真正的极客们在实验室内部噤声的那些东西，其实相当令人警惕。
No, not alarming in a bad way, but it's quite world changing.
不，不是那种坏的令人警惕，而是相当颠覆性的。
I think world changing is a really interesting phrase because I find that to be quite true that the world is um at the precipice of quite a significant change.
我觉得颠覆世界这个说法很有意思，因为我确实觉得这是真的，世界正处于相当重大变革的临界点。
Yeah.
对。
In many respects.
从很多方面来说。
It's funny.
有意思。
I I it's funny.
有意思。
I almost swing backwards and forwards with my my thoughts on AI.
我对 AI 的看法几乎是来回摇摆的。
I guess one of the thoughts that hasn't swung is that there's going to be pretty tremendous job disruption.
但有一个想法始终没有动摇，那就是就业会受到相当剧烈的冲击。
I would have like logically believed it from like reasoning up from okay intelligence increases.
我几乎是从逻辑上，从好，智能在提升这个前提推演出来的。