斯科特·加洛韦：AI 不是为你设计的，富人已不再需要你！
I think the greatest brand destruction over the last 18 months is the US brand abroad and AI.
我认为，过去18个月里品牌毁损最严重的，是美国品牌在海外的形象，以及 AI。
So with America, Trump has been convinced that this was his defining moment of being known as the president that liberated the Middle East.
就美国而言，Trump 被说服相信这将是他最大的历史定义时刻——以解放中东的总统身份被铭记。
But I think the Trump administration will be known for criminal corruption and incompetence.
但我认为，Trump 政府将以刑事腐败和无能被历史记住。
And that incompetence is bubbling up.
而那种无能正在不断暴露。
And then the second greatest fall is AI.
紧随其后的第二大陨落，就是 AI。
And also Sam Alman who's gone to the dark side.
还有 Sam Altman，他已经倒向黑暗面了。
And I'm an AI optimist.
我是 AI 乐观主义者。
But here's what we fail to understand.
但这是我们没看清楚的：
These techs, they do not have our best interests at heart.
这些科技公司，根本没把我们的利益放在心上。
Scott, I often come to you to help myself form my opinions on some of the most sort of consequential issues going on in the world.
Scott，每当我对世界上一些最重大的问题需要形成自己的判断时，我都会来找你。
And when I look at some of the quotes from the CEOs of these AI companies, I've got one here from Elon that says,"AI and robots will replace all jobs."
我看那些 AI 公司 CEO 的言论，这里有 Elon 说的一句话：「AI 和机器人将取代所有工作。」
What's your view here?
你怎么看？
I think it's mostly the catastrophizing is nothing more than thinly veiled attempt to say my technology is so devastating that it's going to shift society and you should invest at this crazy valuation.
我觉得这种末日式渲染，不过是在用一层薄薄的面纱包裹一句话：我的技术太颠覆性了，它将重塑社会，所以你应该按这个疯狂的估值来投资。
And the data doesn't reflect that there's some big exogenous meteor coming for the employment market.
而数据根本没有显示，就业市场将有什么外来大陨石砸下来。
But I believe it's actually going to create more jobs than it destroys.
我相信它实际上创造的岗位会比消灭的更多。
But the scary thing for me is that because of AI and because of these frictionless relationships that people are engaging in online.
但真正让我担忧的是：因为 AI，因为人们在网上参与的这些无摩擦关系——
I think a lot of young people are losing the ability to endure rejection.
很多年轻人正在失去承受拒绝的能力。
But I think a more important technology in terms of how it's going to change the world and what will create more shareholder value is not AI.
但我认为，就改变世界和创造股东价值而言，还有一项更重要的技术，不是 AI。
It's really
而是真的——
This is super interesting to me.
这太有意思了。
My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe.
我的团队给了我这份报告，告诉我你们当中有多少人订阅了这个节目。
And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly.
你们中有些人告诉我们，据这份报告显示，你们被随机取消了订阅。
So favor to ask all of you please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here.
所以拜托大家，如果你是这个节目的常规观众，如果你喜欢我们做的内容，现在就看看你有没有点击订阅按钮。
We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number.
在订阅人数方面，我们正接近一个相当重要的里程碑。
So if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it.
如果有一件简单免费的事你能为我们做，为我的团队，为这里所有人，让这个节目保持免费、持续进步——那就是点击订阅，并确认你已经点了。
Only thing I'll ever ask of you.
这是我唯一会求你的事。
Do we have a deal?
我们成交了吗？
If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do.
如果你做到了，我承诺：
I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear.
每一周、每一个月，我们都会越来越努力、越来越努力，把你想听的嘉宾和对话带给你。
I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the D of Sio, and I will not let you down.
从 The Diary Of A CEO 一开始，我就一直信守这个承诺，我不会让你失望。
Please help us.
请帮帮我们。
Really appreciate it.
非常感谢。
Let's get on with the show.
我们继续节目吧。
Scott, welcome back.
Scott，欢迎回来。
I um I often come to you to help myself form my opinions on some of the most sort of consequential issues going on in the world because I I find you always have a very interesting perspective and one of the things that's been front of mind for me and I think the audience as well is this subject of artificial intelligence.
嗯——每当我对世界上一些最重大的议题需要形成自己的判断时，我都会来找你，因为你总是能提供非常有趣的视角。最近我和观众都非常关注的一个话题，就是人工智能。
It's moving incredibly quickly.
它发展得太快了。
It feels like a moving target.
感觉像个移动的靶子。
And I think I saw some stats the other day that said the subject of artificial intelligence is less popular as like an industry than even ICE in the United States.
我看到一些数据说，人工智能这个行业现在的关注度，甚至还不如美国的制冰行业。
Mhm.
嗯。
In part because the big CEOs of these companies are saying that our jobs and our way of life is going to be fundamentally disrupted and people don't feel like they have a say in that.
部分原因是那些 AI 公司的大 CEO 们声称，我们的工作和生活方式即将被彻底颠覆——而人们感觉自己没有任何发言权。
We didn't choose this.
我们没有选择这一切。
What's your perspective on everything that's going on?
你对这一切怎么看？
There have been few brands that have fallen further faster in the last 18 months than two brands.
过去18个月里，有两个品牌的陨落是最深最快的。
The United States brand abroad.
第一个是美国在海外的品牌形象。
We used to be the enforcer of the operating system to keep rogue nations in check.
我们曾是维护全球秩序、制衡流氓国家的执法者。
The US is now that rogue nation.
现在，美国自己成了那个流氓国家。
So the US brand abroad for the first time in history more people feel that China is a force of good in the world than the US.
所以美国的国际品牌——有史以来第一次——更多人认为中国是对世界有益的力量，而不是美国。
That's never happened before.
这从未发生过。
So the brand US has fallen furthest fastest.
美国品牌陨落得最深、最快。
The second greatest fall is AI.
第二大陨落，就是 AI。
Your view of AI is directly correlated to your wealth.
你对 AI 的看法，和你的财富直接相关。
The only cohort that has a positive rating of AI is people making over $200,000.
对 AI 持正面评价的，只有年收入超过20万美元的群体。
Because generally speaking, wealthy people look at AI as something that's fueling their portfolios and uh wealthy people are the biggest users of AI.
因为总体而言，富人把 AI 看作推动他们投资组合增长的东西，而且富人也是 AI 最大的使用者。
So they see it as a positive.
所以他们觉得 AI 是积极的。
They see it as innovation.
他们把它看作创新。
They see it as the S&P going up.
他们把它看作标普上涨。
But if you're an average middle class person, what you may see is that your electricity bills have gone up and you don't even have access to invest in these companies.
但如果你是普通中产阶层，你看到的可能是电费上涨，而你甚至没有机会投资这些公司。
And you see some statements from people Sam Alman saying,"Stop complaining about energy costs.
你还看到 Sam Altman 这样的人说：「别抱怨能源成本了。
Think about the amount of energy it takes to raise a child."
想想养大一个孩子需要耗费多少能源吧。」
So they haven't really managed the brand well.
所以他们对品牌的管理其实相当糟糕。
In the last 18 months, it's gone from something kind of scary, but we can be optimistic and a wealth creator to something that's very scary and something that's a wealth creator for the wealthiest already.
在过去18个月里，AI 从一个有些令人担忧、但可以乐观看待的财富创造引擎，变成了一个非常可怕的、只为最富有者创造财富的东西。
The brand in the last 18 months has had tremendous, tremendous erosion.
在过去18个月里，这个品牌遭受了极其惨烈的侵蚀。
When I look at some of the quotes from the CEOs of these AI companies, I've got one here from Elon that says,"AI and robots will replace all jobs.
当我看到那些 AI 公司 CEO 们的言论，这里有 Elon 说的一句话：「AI 和机器人将取代所有工作。
Working will be optional, like growing your own vegetables instead of buying them from a store.
工作将成为可选项，就像自己种蔬菜而不是去超市买一样。
The challenge will be fulfillment.
难题将是成就感。
How do you derive fulfillment and meaning in life?"
你如何从生活中获得成就感和意义？」
And Sam Molman said,"By the end of 2028, more of the world's intellectual capacity could reside inside data centers than outside them."
而 Sam Altman 说：「到2028年底，全球智识能力中居于数据中心内的，可能将超过在数据中心外的。」
And when I went through Sam's blog several times, I mean, he's talking about a fairly dystopian future.
当我多次读过 Sam 的博客时，他描绘的未来颇为反乌托邦。
And many of the CEOs are I mean even Amadea Enthropic talks a lot about you know his his bare case for AI and the job disruption that will follow
很多 CEO 都这样——就连 Anthropic 的 Dario Amodei 也大谈 AI 的悲观情景以及随之而来的就业冲击。
and so I think I'm trying to get clarity for myself really on like what what is the truth what's marketing and what's the truth and I want to add another point which is I hire a lot of people
所以我真的在尝试给自己厘清：什么是真相？什么是营销噱头？我还想补充一点——我雇用了很多人，
and I'm already finding that our framework specifically for entry-level y
而我已经发现，我们针对入门级职位的框架，
has has quite radically changed and so I didn't believe this stuff like a lot of people told me about oh Sam Alman these guys they're doing marketing to make their company seem powerful.
已经发生了相当根本性的改变。我之前确实不相信这些，很多人告诉我说 Sam Altman 他们只是在给公司做营销，把自己的技术吹得无所不能。
But then when I noticed a change in my own behavior when I'm sifting through these CVs, yeah, I thought,"Oh, maybe things are going to change."
但当我在翻简历的时候，发现自己的行为确实改变了，我想：「哦，也许事情真的要变了。」
I think it's mostly and catastrophizing and a means of fundraising.
我认为这大部分就是末日渲染，是一种募资手段。
Every technology in history goes through a similar arc.
历史上的每一项技术都经历过类似的轨迹。
There's some catastrophizing, there's some job loss, that increase in productivity results in additional margin, new business opportunities, and employment growth.
先是一番末日渲染，先是一些岗位流失，然后生产力的提升带来了额外利润、新的商业机会，最终推动了就业增长。
I don't see any reason why this would be any different.
我看不出为什么这次会有任何不同。
And I think that catastrophizing and talking about this massive destruction in jobs is a way of saying or justifying the massive investments these companies want enterprises to make in their companies.
我认为，这些末日式的渲染和大规模裁员的说法，实际上是一种方式——用来说明、合理化这些公司希望企业客户对它们做出的巨额投资。
Because if you look at the amount of capital they have committed and the valuations of these companies, one of two things needs to happen in the next 5 years at least in the US.
因为如果你看看这些公司承诺投入的资本规模和它们的估值，未来至少5年内有两件事之一必须发生。
There either needs to be a trillion dollars in incremental revenue from new products from companies that have licensed AI.
要么获得许可使用 AI 的企业，能带来一万亿美元的新产品增量收入。
So L'Oreal does a big site license with say open AI.
比如欧莱雅跟 OpenAI 签下了大型站点许可协议。
Does it come up with new products?
它能推出什么新产品吗？
It's like how does it justify that investment?
这笔投资怎么证明它的价值？
We're not seeing a lot of AI moisturizer or cars that are built by AI.
我们没看到多少「AI 润肤霜」或「AI 造的汽车」。
I mean, there's AI has hit industrialized robots at Amazon, but there's not a lot you would call new AIdriven or AI products.
我是说，AI 确实在 Amazon 的工业机器人上有所应用，但你很难找到真正的 AI 驱动型产品。
AI plays a role in the background, but it's very hard for companies right now to point to incremental growth or revenues from AI.
AI 在幕后扮演着角色，但现在企业很难拿出 AI 带来的增量增长或营收。
So, in order to justify these valuations, then they have to say, all right, there's going to be massive cost savings or efficiencies.
所以，为了证明这些估值的合理性，他们就必须说：好吧，这将带来巨大的成本节约或效率提升。
And there's some examples.
当然也有些案例。
I think Meta Meta has just announced new layoffs because of efficiencies they're getting with AI targeting.
我想 Meta 刚刚宣布了新一轮裁员，因为 AI 精准投放带来了效率提升。
So, one of two things needs to happen in the next three three years.
所以，未来三年内，有两件事之一必须发生。
Either these companies valuations need to be cut by 50 or 70%.
要么这些公司的估值需要缩水50%到70%。
Or you need a massive destruction in the labor market that creates tons of efficiencies that their customers can then flow to the bottom line.
要么劳动力市场必须发生大规模破坏，产生大量效率空间，让它们的客户得以流入利润端。
And I think what the CEOs are saying is that there's going to be massive efficiencies.
我认为 CEO 们所说的，就是将要出现大规模效率提升。
I also think that you sound more interesting and it makes your technology sound more seinal when you say it's changing the world and we don't know how to control it.
我也认为，当你说「我的技术在改变世界、我们不知道如何控制它」时，你听起来更有趣，你的技术也显得更划时代。
And quite frankly, I find it a little bit obnoxious that some of the founders in key figures in AI catastrophize just about the time they take a secondary and peace out to the Kotazura.
坦率地说，我觉得有点令人反感的是：某些 AI 的创始人和核心人物，恰恰在他们套现离场、飞去科达苏拉度假的时候，突然大谈 AI 的末日风险。
That's not helpful.
这没什么用。
I'm I'm Dr. Frankenstein and I've created this monster, but I don't know how to deal with it.
「我是弗兰肯斯坦博士，我造了这个怪物，但我不知道怎么对付它。」
So, I'm going to go peace out to Sanrope.
所以我要去桑托里尼潇洒一下了。
That's just not very helpful.
这真的帮不上忙。
They always talk about the peril.
他们总是谈论危险。