Goldman Sachs 회장이 말하는 AI와 금융의 미래 | The a16z Show

anybody who's investing, you know, you're doing two things. 투자를 하는 분이라면 누구나 두 가지를 동시에 하고 있습니다. You're trying to make money for yourselves and your clients, and so you're trying to get out there and take risk, and you're also trying to be a risk manager, and you have to do both. 자신과 고객을 위해 돈을 벌려고 리스크를 감수하면서도, 동시에 리스크 관리자 역할도 해야 합니다. 두 가지를 모두 해야 합니다. I think it was your quote there. 그건 당신이 한 말이었죠. It's like, if you're so good at predicting the future, tell me what's going to happen next. 마치 '미래 예측을 그렇게 잘한다면, 다음에 무슨 일이 일어날지 말해봐라' 같은 거죠. Once the present turns into the past, everybody's a genius. 현재가 과거가 되면, 모든 사람이 천재가 됩니다. Most of what we do with respect to risk is not so much predicting, it's a lot of contingency planning. 리스크에 관해 우리가 하는 일의 대부분은 예측이 아니라, 비상 계획 수립이라고 할 수 있습니다. We are on the precipice of some of the largest IPOs ever. 우리는 역사상 최대 규모의 IPO들이 쏟아지기 직전에 있습니다. What are risks that you think are underappreciated? 저평가되고 있다고 생각하는 리스크가 무엇인지 말씀해 주시겠어요? Before this technological age, not just AI, but in general, could you have had a mistake that could cost billions of dollars? 이 기술 시대 이전에는, AI뿐 아니라 전반적으로, 수십억 달러의 손실을 초래하는 실수가 가능했을까요? Um, not really. 음, 사실 그렇진 않았죠. But now you can leave a a piece of software could go out and do 70,000 transactions. 하지만 이제는 소프트웨어 하나가 7만 건의 거래를 실행할 수 있어요. The leverage in these things is themselves a problem. 이러한 것들 자체에 내재된 레버리지가 문제입니다. Not because it's smarter than us and it's going to turn us into pets, but because we don't have the ability to test whether it's right or not. AI가 우리보다 똑똑해서 우리를 애완동물로 만들어서가 아니라, 그것이 옳은지 아닌지를 검증할 방법이 없기 때문입니다. Your tweet, by the way, about the White House Correspondent Center was amazing. 그런데 백악관 출입기자 만찬에 대한 당신의 트윗은 정말 굉장했어요. Uh, I think for for the good of like the timeline, we need you back on on Twitter more often. 타임라인을 위해서라도 트위터에 더 자주 복귀하셔야 할 것 같습니다. I know. 알고 있어요. You know what it's a funny thing is I 그게 재밌는 점이에요, 저는 You would think that um you see something and you're activated to tweet about it. 무언가를 보면 바로 트윗하고 싶어진다고 생각하실 텐데요. It me I said,"Oh, gee, I haven't tweeted for a long time. 저는 '아, 트윗한 지 오래됐네. Let me find something to tweet about." 뭔가 트윗할 거리를 찾아볼까' 이런 생각을 했어요. That's more and also being in the risk management business 그것도 리스크 관리 업계에 있어서이기도 하고 I always know that everybody keeps doing that and eventually you get cancelled because you do you know you do something you step over some invisible line that you you know that nobody knew about and so I realized that from a riskreward point of view it's all ego and no no real value other than that but that was saying you know when you retired you your grasp its draws 누구나 계속하다 보면 결국 취소되게 된다는 걸 알거든요. 아무도 몰랐던 어떤 보이지 않는 선을 넘어버리기 때문에. 리스크 대비 보상 관점에서 보면 전부 자아를 위한 것이고 실질적인 가치는 없어요. 은퇴하시면 자유로워지겠다고 생각하셨잖아요. why not 왜 안 되겠어요 I mean it was like 10 million views later or something 어쨌든 1천만 뷰 정도 됐으니까요 I mean it was like 10 million views later or something I went to 어쨌든 1천만 뷰 정도 나왔을 때 갔었죠 I remember when I was um doing it 기억나요, 그때 하고 있을 때 what's his name from 이름이 뭐더라 uh 음 You know, I got this 뭔가 얻었는데 I said to you know when I retired 은퇴하면서 말했었죠 no unrestrained 아니, 무제한으로 uh no I I am 음 아니요 저는 I am freed from the restraints that I had because I started you know I did this at Goldman Goldman에서 했던 제약에서 벗어났습니다. 저는 Goldman에서 이걸 시작했거든요. and I realized that I was um you know playing a dangerous game because I was being snarky with the president and I had all those back and forths totally 그게 위험한 게임을 하고 있다는 걸 깨달았어요. 대통령한테 빈정거리고 있었으니까요. with um Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. 샌더스, 엘리자베스 워런 등과 말싸움도 했고요. The the other thing I was curious to ask you, you know, you're obviously like famous for being come under pressure and a risk a risk manager, but it was reported that you you know what like during the active shooter, like you lean over to the person next to you, you're like, you're going to you're going to finish that that salad. 또 궁금한 게 있었는데, 당신이 위기 상황에서 침착하기로 유명하잖아요. 그런데 현장 총격 사건 당시 옆 사람한테 '그 샐러드 드실 건가요?'라고 했다는 보도가 있던데요. Is that was that a real 그게 실제였나요? No, that was 아니, 그건 Yeah, that was real. 네, 실제였어요. But I but it wasn't, you know, it wasn't like I was 하지만 그건, 제가 I was hungry. 배가 고팠거든요. I 저는 So every you know, I always used in in moments of crisis like that, I always tried to be disarming. 그러니까 저는 항상 그런 위기 상황에서 긴장을 풀어주려 했어요. Sure. 물론이죠. And you know, everybody was and and by the way, it was very sensible to duck down under the desk. 모두가 다 그랬고, 책상 밑으로 숨는 건 매우 합리적인 행동이었어요. I mean, it was a line, you know, realized we were pretty close up and I was just it wasn't it wasn't that thoughtful on my part. 무대 꽤 가까이 있었다는 걸 깨달았고, 그냥 그다지 심사숙고한 행동은 아니었어요. It was just that I was like it was like it was like being in a movie and I was like enjoying watching it. 그냥 영화 속에 있는 것 같았고 구경하는 걸 즐기고 있었어요. Totally. 완전히요. And you had all these um guys who were wearing tuxedos. 턱시도 입은 분들이 있었는데 Suddenly they had little, you know, they had uh they had pistols in their hand and there were guys in full tactically and they all ran in and they all s you know they all were on the stage with with their guns facing outward of course because that's where the threat would have come from. 갑자기 조그만 권총을 꺼내들었고, 완전 전술 복장을 한 사람들도 뛰어들어와서 총구를 바깥으로 향한 채 무대 위에 섰어요. 위협이 그쪽에서 오니까요. Then I you know suddenly you know guy tugs at my you know leg and he said you know you really should get down. 그러다 누군가가 제 다리를 잡아당기며 '정말 몸을 낮추셔야 해요' 라고 하더군요. And I said you're really right. 그래서 '정말 맞는 말이에요' 라고 했죠. I said you know this is like like when I get into an airplane this is one this is another time that I'm glad I'm short. 비행기 탈 때처럼, 키 작아서 다행이라고 생각하는 때가 또 왔군요. Um, but I was uh watching it and then and then I saw what everybody was doing and know I didn't see a lot of panic. 지켜보고 있었는데, 주변 사람들을 보니 크게 패닉하는 사람은 별로 없었어요. I didn't see any panic really the people under this which was a sensible thing to do. 실제로 책상 밑에 있는 사람들 중 패닉하는 사람은 아무도 없었어요. 그게 합리적인 행동이었고요. Yeah. 그렇죠. But again to break the moment I looked down and they said by the way are you going to finish your uh are you going to finish your are you going to finish your salad? 어쨌든 순간을 깨려고 내려다보며 '그런데 그 샐러드 드실 건가요?'라고 했어요. And as I said it was, you know, it was kind of a you know it was kind of funny at the time. 그 당시엔 좀 웃긴 상황이었어요. Ice in the veins you know I don't know. 강철 같은 신경이라고 할 수 있죠. 저도 모르겠어요. Well, were were you always even killed like as a as a kid or 어렸을 때부터 그러셨나요? Yes, I was. 네, 그랬어요. You know, in somebody said go Gleman, you know, you're very good in a crisis and uh and and and that's why you go out of your way to create them. 누군가 말했는데, '블랭크페인, 위기 상황에서 정말 뛰어나네요. 그래서 일부러 위기를 만드는 거 아닌가요?'라고 했죠. So, just so you can give you an opportunity to be good in a crisis. 위기에서 빛날 기회를 만들려고요. And I would say that my normal resting um you know, my resting state is to not be resting. 제 평상시 상태를 말씀드리면, 안정된 상태가 아니에요. So, I tend to be a little bit wound all the time, but I don't get especially wound. 항상 조금 긴장되어 있지만, 특별히 더 긴장되진 않아요. In fact, things slow down for me. 오히려 상황이 느려지는 느낌이에요. I'm used to seeing things uh like that. 그런 걸 보는 데 익숙해요. They're in slow motion, and I become very sensitive to what the people around me are thinking and trying to, you know, get them uh most of the time like at Goldman and and in most most of life in a crisis time, the really important thing is just to get people to do their jobs and to stop being, you know, stop, you know, don't be frozen and don't be uh don't submit to the chaos. 모든 게 슬로 모션처럼 보이고, 주변 사람들이 무슨 생각을 하는지 예민하게 감지하게 돼요. Goldman에서도, 그리고 대부분의 위기 상황에서도 중요한 건 사람들이 일을 계속하게 만드는 것이었어요. 얼어붙거나 혼란에 굴복하지 않게요. Do you think that was like a nate or was there something from your childhood that sort of like helped kind of breed that temperament? 그게 타고난 기질인가요, 아니면 어린 시절의 무언가가 그런 기질을 길러준 건가요? I don't know. 잘 모르겠어요. I wouldn't have predicted that about myself, but I've now gone through, you know, we, you know, going, we had the crisis of the century roughly every four or five years. 제 자신에 대해 그런 예측을 하지는 않았겠지만, 이제는 그런 경험들을 많이 해왔어요. 4~5년에 한 번씩 세기의 위기가 찾아왔으니까요. Um, and it's always that way. 항상 그런 식이었어요. But, by the way, it doesn't mean I like crises and I wouldn't go out of my way to volunteer to be in one. 그렇다고 위기를 좋아하거나 자원해서 뛰어들겠다는 건 아니에요. It's just that when it happens, I I I generally have confidence that I'm not going to get dis that I'm not trying to tempt the fates. 그냥 위기가 닥쳤을 때, 제가 먼저 흔들리진 않을 거라는 확신이 있어요. 함부로 말하는 게 아니라요. If I'm going to get discombobulated, everyone is going to get discombobulated before me. 만약 제가 혼란에 빠진다면, 그건 다른 모든 사람이 이미 빠진 후일 거예요. That's how I that's how, you know, and so I I've done that. 그런 식으로 살아왔고, 그게 많은 것을 가르쳐줬어요. 위기 상황에서 의지할 수 있는 사람에 대해서요. And by the way, that that taught me a lot about, you know, the people that you need to rely on because you can't really tell, 책을 겉으로 판단할 수 없다는 게 딱 맞아요. you know, I mean, not to coin a phrase, but you can't tell a book by its color. 진부한 말이 될 수 있지만, 외모로 사람을 판단할 수 없다는 거죠. And I, you know, I went through and, you know, maybe this is out of sequence, but I went through the financial crisis and we had, you know, we had people, you know, and thinking one in particular who was great athlete, terrific guy, real man's man, you know, 금융 위기를 겪으면서 이야기가 순서가 좀 다를 수 있지만, 특히 기억나는 사람이 있었어요. 대단한 운동선수에, 근사한 사람, 진짜 사나이 같은 did rodeos on the weekend and 주말엔 로데오도 하고요. and he was, you know, terrible. 그런데 정말 형편없었어요. Yep. 그렇군요. And you know and then here I am the co co-president of the firm you know here 그리고 저는 당시 회사의 공동 대표였는데 I am trying to teach people how to me and you know trying to say you know you have to breathe and then there were people who didn't look like they could walk up a whole flight of stairs 사람들에게 숨 쉬는 법을 가르쳐야 했어요. and they were you know really good and so you know just people you know you just don't know 반면에 계단 한 층도 올라가기 힘들 것 같은 사람들이 오히려 정말 잘 해냈어요. 사람은 모르는 거예요. and that's why 그래서 I mean my advice uh you know when you when you pick board members 제 조언은, 이사회 구성원을 뽑을 때 yep 네 and by this is a very I'm turning something that's generic into a very narrow things. 이건 일반적인 이야기를 매우 구체적인 것으로 바꾸는 건데요. I I think a good place to go is find people who've already gone through a crisis because to me, people who look like and sound like 이미 위기를 겪어본 사람을 찾으세요. 저는 겪어봤다는 게 외모나 말투보다 they'll get through it. 실제로 잘 헤쳐나갈지와의 상관관계가 높다고 생각해요. It's not really uh 그게 진짜 상관관계가 있는지는 확신이 없어요. I'm not sure how much of a correlation there is to the to the to the reality of it, but when somebody's gone through a crisis, I think that's your best bet. 하지만 위기를 이미 경험한 사람이라면, 그게 최선의 판단 기준이라고 생각해요. Totally. 완전히 동의합니다. Well, I I definitely want to spend some time on on the financial crisis. 금융 위기에 대해 꼭 이야기를 나눠보고 싶었어요. Obviously, was uh such a defining kind of period. 정말 결정적인 시기였으니까요. Um but maybe to go backwards sometime obviously you um 하지만 잠깐 되돌아가서, 당신은 정말 소박하게 성장하셨잖아요. you know, you had a very modest upbringing. 굉장히 소박한 환경에서 자라셨죠. Um, you know, I was curious like, you know, uh, what role did like living near New York City or Manhattan maybe more specifically play in sort of like creating ambition or or for me, you know, I didn't grow up in the projects, but I grew up very modestly as well. 뉴욕 시나 맨해튼의 가까운 환경이 어떤 식으로 야망을 형성했는지 궁금해요. 저는 공영 주택은 아니지만 매우 소박하게 자랐거든요. And where'd you grow up? 어디서 자라셨어요?