Pax Silica：特朗普政府的科技战略内幕 | Jacob Helberg 专访

we're not going to do government operated supply chains because that's not how we shine as a country. 我们不会采取政府主导的供应链模式，因为这不是我们国家所擅长的。 Our superpower is really our private sector and our companies. 我们的核心优势在于私营部门和那些企业。 The old Steve Jobs quote that American products enchant and delight users around the world by the billions. 老话说，Steve Jobs 讲过，美国产品能让全球数十亿用户着迷、充满喜悦。 That is really is our edge as a country. 这才是我们国家真正的竞争优势。 And so the answer's been trying to work in lockstep with our private companies and our builders to build platforms 所以，我们的方向是与私营企业和建设者并肩而行，共同打造平台。 [music] [音乐] that are commercially viable and that will can ultimately live outside of the government as a private service. 这些平台要有商业可行性，最终能以私营服务的形式脱离政府独立运转。 The General Purpose are joined by Jacob Helberg, the Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs. No Priors 今天迎来 Jacob Helberg，他是美国主管经济事务的国务次卿。 We spoke with Jacob before he was confirmed in this role and we're very excited to have him back to discuss Pax Silica, which is a multi-nation effort to secure the AI supply chain for the United States and its allies. Jacob 在确认任命之前曾与我们交流，我们非常高兴他再次来到节目，聊聊 Pax Silica，这是一项多国合作计划，旨在保障美国及其盟友的 AI 供应链安全。 Jacob, thanks so much for being here. Jacob，非常感谢你来到这里。 Yeah, thanks for joining us. 感谢你们的邀请。 Thanks for having me. 谢谢邀请我。 So, let's get right into it. 好，咱们直接切入正题。 Three months ago you announced Pax Silica, super ambitious coalition. 三个月前你宣布了 Pax Silica，一个雄心勃勃的联盟。 Can you explain what it is and where you are in it? 能解释一下它是什么，现在进展到哪里了吗？ Yeah, absolutely. 当然。 So, I gave a speech at the Hudson Institute that was really meant to be our blueprint for Pax Silica. 我在 Hudson Institute 发表了一篇演讲，那实际上就是我们 Pax Silica 的战略蓝图。 Pax Silica is an economic security coalition that now has 14 countries and the idea is really to have an ecosystems based approach to our supply chains and specifically the AI supply chain. Pax Silica 是一个经济安全联盟，目前已有 14 个成员国，核心理念是对我们的供应链，尤其是 AI 供应链，采取基于生态系统的整体方法。 And in my speech at Hudson I outlined our different lines of efforts including our policy road maps and our projects and about a week and a half ago we we basically did the first big, you know, what would be the tech equivalent of a product rollout where we announced a forward deployed industrial base with our oldest ally in Asia, the Philippines. 在 Hudson 的演讲中，我概述了我们不同的行动方向，包括政策路线图和各项具体项目。大约一周半前，我们做了第一次重大亮相，用科技圈的话说，就像是产品发布会，正式宣布与美国在亚洲最老的盟友菲律宾建立前沿部署产业基地。 We made this arrangement with them where they are granting us 4,000 acres which is obviously very substantial. 我们与他们达成了这一安排，他们向我们划拨了 4000 英亩土地，这显然是相当大的规模。 It's a third of the size of Manhattan to do a very large industrial build-out. 相当于曼哈顿三分之一大，用于大规模产业建设。 That's one-of-a-kind that that helps combine the predictability and certainty of the American common law system with the industrial comparative advantages that the Philippines offers. 这是前所未有的安排，它将美国普通法体系带来的可预期性与确定性，和菲律宾在工业上的比较优势有机结合在一起。 And the goal is really to secure inputs that are vital for our supply chains. 目标就是确保对我们供应链至关重要的各类投入品的安全。 And so we're super excited to be here in San Francisco talk to builders and see ways that we can actually accelerate supply chain security for our tech companies. 我们非常高兴来到旧金山，与建设者们交流，找到实际加速科技企业供应链安全的路径。 Is this set up as a special economic zone in the Philippines or could you tell us more about the details beyond sort of the legal side that you mentioned? 这是作为菲律宾的经济特区来设立的吗？还是能介绍一下除法律层面之外更多的细节？ Yeah, absolutely. 当然。 So it 就是说…… So right now the there are two phases to the plan. 目前计划分两个阶段推进。 The first phase is the State Department taking into custody the the zone. 第一阶段是国务院将该区域纳入管辖。 We we're we are referring to it as an economic security zone because it is a very unique type of of arrangement. 我们将其称为经济安全区，因为这是一种非常独特的安排。 The State Department has authorities to take in land and property into custody sort of how foreign governments gift the State Department counselors and consulates and embassies. 国务院有权将土地和财产纳入管辖，就像外国政府向国务院赠送领事馆、总领事馆和大使馆一样。 It's very unique to do a gift of 4,000 acres, but fortunately there's no statutory limits on how big or small property can be. 赠送 4000 英亩这么大的规模确实非常罕见，但幸运的是，法律对财产的大小没有任何上限限制。 And so that's phase one. 所以这就是第一阶段。 So right now it's actually diplomatic property that is effectively, you know, governed by the same laws as as our embassies are. 目前它实际上是外交财产，在法律上受到和我们大使馆相同的管辖。 Phase two will be the long-term development and build-out of the land. 第二阶段将是对这片土地的长期开发和建设。 And so we are going to spend we have two years a two-year window to negotiate the details with our Filipino counterparts on the investor protections that will apply to the land, the tax taxation regimes, and and all of the different, you know, legal safeguards that investors will be able to benefit from from for the long term. 我们有两年时间，要与菲律宾方面就一系列细节展开谈判，包括适用于该土地的投资者保护措施、税收制度，以及投资者长期受益的各类法律保障。 And the goal is within that two-year window to actually have a long-term framework that will be multi multiple decades. 目标是在这两年内确立一个可持续数十年的长期框架。 It's it amazing innovation. 真是了不起的创新。 Are there specific domains that you think makes sense to invest in there from a manufacturing, mineral processing, whatever it is perspective now? 从制造、矿产加工或其他角度来看，你认为有哪些具体领域值得在那里投资？ Yeah, so the goal is really to actually test a concept that could potentially be replicable. 是的，目标其实是真正验证一个可能具有可复制性的模式。 I mean, right now if you know, when we think about the AI supply chain, a lot of people just think of chips, but the reality is that the AI supply chain actually includes thousands of inputs like precision reducers and server motors and rare earth magnets and actuators and our concentration risk as a country is incredibly high for basically all of those inputs. 很多人谈到 AI 供应链，只想到芯片，但现实是 AI 供应链包含数千种投入品，比如精密减速器、伺服电机、稀土磁铁、致动器等，而我们国家在几乎所有这些投入品上的集中风险都极高。 And so, the goal is to identify key geographies that actually have industrial, you know, strengths and bring unique capabilities to the table that could actually help us move the needle meaningfully in in, you know, different segments of the supply chain. 所以，目标是找到真正具有工业优势、能带来独特能力的关键地区，切实推动供应链不同环节的实质性进展。 So, the Philippines already has a native indigenous manufacturing ecosystem that's already quite deep. 菲律宾已经有了完整的本土制造业生态，底蕴相当深厚。 It's It's our oldest ally in Asia. 它是我们在亚洲最老的盟友。 So, we have a very deep values alignment with the Philippines and so, we think that the nexus between the values alignment combined with their industrial advantages actually makes for a very compelling value proposition for a lot of companies. 我们与菲律宾在价值观上高度契合，加上他们的工业优势，这对很多企业来说形成了非常有吸引力的价值主张。 We're talking with a number of companies focused on the robotics supply chain. 我们正在与多家专注于机器人供应链的企业进行洽谈。 As you guys know living out here and I'm sure you guys include robotics companies in your portfolio. 你们在这边应该清楚，我相信你们的投资组合里也有机器人公司。 But the robotics supply chain robotics is an incredibly promising industry that really is poised to change a lot of things in in manufacturing as well as in people's daily lives and the supply chain is right now completely dominated by China. 机器人供应链，机器人是一个极有前景的产业，真的有望改变很多制造业格局以及人们的日常生活，但这个供应链目前完全被中国所主导。 And so, that's an that's an area where that's you know, where we're particularly interested in potentially making a bet on. 所以，这是我们特别感兴趣、有可能重点押注的领域之一。 When most people hear economic security policy, one of the first things they think of is the Belt and Road Initiative. 很多人一听到经济安全政策，第一个想到的就是 Belt and Road Initiative。 How would you contrast, you know, your strategy and the State Department's strategy here with that approach? 你怎么看国务院的策略与那套方式的区别？ Yeah, so that's such a great question. 这个问题问得太好了。 And I think, you know, one of the one of the benefits that we've been able to um leverage uh developing the strategy today 我认为，我们在制定今天这套战略时，一个很大的优势就是，嗯…… [clears throat] [清嗓] is the ability to study 25 years of, you know, of China's Belt and Road Initiative, how they've done what they've done, you know, what's worked, what hasn't worked. 有机会研究中国 Belt and Road Initiative 25 年的历程，他们是怎么做的，哪些奏效了，哪些没有。 And 而且…… [clears throat] [清嗓] you know, fundamentally 从根本上说…… You want to explain what that is, too, for our audience? 你能给我们的听众解释一下那是什么吗？ Yeah, so the Belt and Road Initiative is a very, very large foreign policy project of the Chinese government that basically involved using state-owned enterprises that are essentially extensions of the government to carry out massive infrastructure projects overseas. Belt and Road Initiative 是中国政府一个规模非常庞大的对外政策工程，基本上是通过国有企业，也就是政府的延伸，在海外承建大规模基础设施项目。 And the idea is using infrastructure projects as a tool of foreign policy to achieve foreign policy outcomes. 背后的逻辑是把基础设施项目作为外交政策工具，来实现外交目标。 was the big build-outs, for example, in Africa that 典型案例是非洲的大规模建设， Exactly. 没错。 did it in a variety of countries there. 在那里的很多国家都这么干了。 That's right. 对。 So, whether it's creating mines or, you know, processing facilities, a lot of the times it involved building out, you know, very big roads, sometimes bridges, a lot of the times it included railways. 不管是建矿山、建加工厂，很多时候还要修大路，有时是桥梁，很多时候还包括铁路。 Um and [clears throat] and fundamentally what it was was state-owned enterprises um building government-operated railways, government, you know, built roads and bridges. 嗯，而且从根本上说，那就是国有企业在建政府运营的铁路、政府建的道路和桥梁。 And the Chinese government, by virtue of its system, really built all of this in-house. 中国政府凭借自身的体制，把这一切都在内部完成了。 Which for us, you know, when we think about how should we we want to secure supply chains, we need to make a lot of investments, you know, that um that are, you know, touch upon these kinds of industrial capabilities, but as Americans, we're not going to do this in-house inside of the government. 对我们来说，当我们想着怎么保障供应链安全、需要在这些工业能力上大量投入时，作为美国人，我们不会把这些事情收到政府内部来做。 effects of this for China was basically both building out their industrial base, but then also securing natural resources in some of these countries. 这对中国的实际效果就是，一方面扩大了工业基础，另一方面也在这些国家锁定了自然资源。 Exactly. 没错。 they were able to build a network that ensured that their factories in China had all the inputs um in order to actually really, you know, thrive. 他们由此建起了一张网络，确保中国境内的工厂能够获得所有所需的投入品，真正得以蓬勃发展。 And and you know, Shenzhen today is really, you know, the world's factory floor um because they have deep relationships with suppliers and vendors, you know, on every continent, basically. 今天的深圳之所以是全球的制造工厂，就是因为他们与基本上每个大洲的供应商和供货商都建立了深度关系。 Um and the infrastructure that they leverage allows them to get access in a way that's very very competitive. 他们所依托的基础设施，让他们能以极具竞争力的方式获得这种资源。 So, the question for us is, you know, how do we compete in that landscape at a time when we want to re-industrialize? 那我们面临的问题就是，在我们想要再工业化的当下，如何在这个格局里竞争？ And the answer is we're not going to do government-operated supply chains because that's not how we shine as a country. 答案是，我们不会搞政府运营的供应链，因为那不是我们的强项。 And I the, you know, sort of where we've landed is our superpower is really our private sector and our companies. 我们得出的结论是，我们真正的超级力量在于私营部门和企业。 And it's sort of the old Steve Jobs quote that, you know, American products enchant and delight users around the world by the billions, and that's how with you know, that is really is our edge as a country. 就像 Steve Jobs 那句老话说的，美国产品让全球数十亿用户着迷、充满喜悦，这才是我们国家真正的竞争优势。 And so, how do we, you know, adopt a product-based, a product-centric approach to, you know, our foreign policy where we can actually um use that kind of approach to to achieve foreign policy outcomes. 那么，我们怎样把产品化、以产品为核心的思维方式引入外交政策，真正利用这种方式来实现外交目标？ And and what we've done, so that's very much sort of the lens of how we've, you know, decided to focus our economic security strategy. 这正是我们决定聚焦经济安全战略时的核心视角。 Um the answer's been trying [clears throat] to work in lockstep with our private and our builders to build platforms that are commercially viable and that will can ultimately live outside of the government as a private service. 嗯，我们的路径是与私营企业和建设者并肩而行，共同打造具有商业可行性、最终能以私营服务形式脱离政府独立运转的平台。 And so, the forward-deployed industrial base is meant to be a platform uh for pri- for private investment that will be viable for the long term. 所以，这个前沿部署产业基地的定位，是作为私人投资的平台，面向长期可持续发展。 It's the first of its kind. 这是同类中的首创。 We're thinking about making a big play in the logistics space uh in partnership with um large, you know, corporates um and in June we're we're looking at potentially doing a broader rollout where we're going to roll out four or five different big lines of effort. 我们正在考虑联合大型企业在物流领域大举布局，预计六月份还会推出一次更大规模的发布，将发布四五条不同的重点行动方向。 You guys are both invited to Washington for it. 你们两位都受邀来华盛顿参加。 And and so you know, having a product based approach is very much how we're thinking about it. 以产品化思维推进，正是我们现在的核心思路。 As somebody who's done a deep study of the pros and cons of Belt and Road, there's obviously access to infrastructure and inputs as some dimension of success here. 作为一个对 Belt and Road 的利弊做过深入研究的人，显然这里有一个成功维度：获取基础设施和投入品的渠道。 What's been the failure point for Belt and Road? Belt and Road 的失败点在哪里？ Well, the failure point is, you know, so first of all, obviously 嗯，失败点是，首先很显然…… [clears throat] [清嗓] some of the projects, you know, have been useful for China. 其中一些项目对中国来说确实有用。 There is there's a lot of waste in the Belt and Road initiative and, you know, mainly it's because whenever you have, you know, central planning and and really government bureaucrats effectively, you know, allocating large pools of capital. Belt and Road 里有大量浪费，主要是因为只要有中央计划、让政府官僚来分配大规模资本，就难免出现这种问题。 There's a lot of waste because vendors, you know, massively overcharge things. 浪费很多，因为供应商会大幅虚报价格。 There's a lot of waste because there's a lot of roads to nowhere. 浪费也很多，因为修了很多没有意义的路。 Um 嗯…… And and what happens is, you know, China will basically deploy capital to its own companies that then, you know, basically write IOUs to the host country. 中国的惯常做法是，把资本输送给本国企业，然后让那些企业向东道国打借条。 And the host country realizes that you know, they they you know, they've gained a reputation for these projects have gained a reputation for being debt trap because China will say, you know, we'll build a road and, you know, as a loan except the company building the road is Chinese and so China can basically decide, you know, what the price is and as you guys know, you know, when you build a house or when you do any construction project, a lot of projects run over budget a lot and so, you know, when a host country thinks it's taking on, you know, X [clears throat] million dollars in liabilities and it actually ends up being 10 X 东道国后来发现，这些项目已经背上了“债务陷阱”的名声，因为中国会说，我们来修路，以贷款的形式，但修路的公司是中国的，所以中国基本上可以自己定价。就像你们知道的，任何建房或建设项目都很容易超预算，当东道国以为借了 X 百万，最后发现是 10 倍…… Um that's when they kind of end up in quicksand. 那就是深陷泥潭的时候了。 And so the Belt and Road Initiative has really garnered a reputation for um really being a tool of political leverage that um a lot of countries are still digging themselves out of. 所以 Belt and Road Initiative 已经落下这么一个名声，说它实际上是一个政治杠杆工具，很多国家至今还在挣脱它的束缚。 And so versus one of partnership. 而不是伙伴关系式的。