Ben Horowitz 谈美国活力与 AI 的未来 | The a16z Show

Over 70% of people in China are optimistic about AI and less than 30% in America were optimistic about AI. 中国超过70%的人对AI持乐观态度，美国却不到30%。 We have placed the largest bet in American history on the proposition that this country will win the next century of technology. 我们在美国历史上下了最大的赌注——这个国家将赢得下一个世纪的科技竞争。 We won the industrial revolution and we did that cuz we had superior technology and here we are on the dawn of a new technological revolution, the AI revolution. 我们赢得了工业革命，靠的是领先的技术。而现在，我们站在新一轮技术革命的黎明——AI革命。 Every interesting company that gets started is a technology company. 每家有意思的新公司，都是科技公司。 Now, America does give everybody a chance and entrepreneurs can really count on that. 美国给了所有人机会，创业者真的可以依赖这一点。 If America loses its technology edge and its dominance, the entire world will lose as well. 如果美国失去技术优势和主导地位，整个世界也会一起失去。 What makes the American system irreplaceable for the world at large? 美国体制对整个世界而言，是什么让它无可替代？ Everybody's in the same game, but the rules of the game have changed. 所有人都在同一场游戏里，但规则变了。 And what I mean by that is, 我的意思是， so we've had a lot of uh excellent discussions. 我们有过很多精彩的讨论。 We've talked a lot about policy. 聊了很多政策方面的话题。 Uh but we're actually going to start this more on the uh venture capital and and technology side. 不过今天我们其实要从风险投资和技术这一侧出发。 Uh you recently shared a blog post of the firm has raised over $15 billion in a new fundraising uh set of set of funds for uh uh the firm, the largest in A6Z history. 你最近分享了一篇博文，说公司在新一轮募资中筹集了超过150亿美元——这是a16z历史上规模最大的一次。 What do you think are the new obligations that come with that kind of scale? 这种量级带来了哪些新的责任？ Uh we are the largest venture capital firm in the world. 我们是全球最大的风险投资公司。 Uh and how does that uh tie into the mission? 这和公司的使命又是怎么联系起来的？ Yeah. 对。 So, it's interesting. 所以，这很有意思。 My my old mentor Andy Grove said to me, he said, "Ben, when you're a leader in an industry, then the whole industry, um, the size of it, the ethics of it, the morality of it kind of depends on you." 我的老导师Andy Grove曾对我说：「Ben，当你成为一个行业的领导者，整个行业的规模、道德标准，某种程度上就都压在你身上了。」 And I remember thinking when he said that to me, he was running Intel at the time, um, I thought, "Wow, I'm glad I'm never going to be the leader of an industry because that's a lot of responsibility." 我记得当时听到这话，他正在掌管Intel，我心想：「太好了，我永远不会成为什么行业领导者，那责任太重了。」 Uh, but here I am. 但现在就是这样。 here we are. 我们就在这里。 Uh and I think you know for us you have to take a step back and say okay for the technology industry and particularly for kind of new technology companies um what does it need to be and you know you have to think about it on a large scale and and the way we've been thinking about it is well if you go all the way back to humanity like what's important for humanity what advances humanity and it really kind of comes down to um do people have a chance to contribute because when people have a chance to contribute then they can have an impact and then they can kind of advance the state of things for everybody. 我认为，对我们来说，得退一步想清楚：科技行业，尤其是新科技公司，应该是什么样的？要从大局出发——追溯到人类层面，什么对人类最重要？推动人类进步的关键是什么？归根结底就是：人们是否有机会去贡献。当人们有机会贡献，就能产生影响，进而推动整体进步。 Uh and there's really been no country um in the world that comes close to uh America at giving people a shot. 而在给人机会这件事上，全球没有任何国家能接近美国。 Um you know giving them a chance to succeed and you know it's not a completely equal chance. 给人一个成功的机会——当然不是完全平等的机会。 Some people are born rich, some people are born poor, some people have better genetics, some people uh live in dysfunctional families and so forth. 有人生来富有，有人生来贫穷，有人天赋异禀，有人成长在功能失调的家庭。 Um but a chance uh and most countries uh people don't have a chance um you know or they have a very small chance, a very slim chance. 但这是一个机会。大多数国家的人根本没有机会，或者机会极其渺茫。 And uh and so that that ends up being really important. 这最终变得非常重要。 And then if you think about why does America have the influence it has today from a military standpoint, from an economic standpoint, from a cultural standpoint, it comes back to well, we won the industrial revolution. 想想美国今天在军事、经济、文化上的影响力从何而来——答案就是：我们赢得了工业革命。 Um, and we did that because we had superior technology. 因为我们拥有领先的技术。 And here we are on the dawn of a new technological revolution, the AI revolution. 现在我们站在新一轮技术革命的黎明——AI革命。 And are we going to win? 我们能赢吗？ Um, and are we going to have that influence? 我们还能保持那种影响力吗？ And are we going to be able to give people a shot? 还能给人们机会吗？ and kind of to continue to advance humanity. 继续推动人类进步。 I think that's an open question right now. 我觉得这现在是一个悬而未决的问题。 And so when I think about our role in the industry, it's what can we do to help America win technologically? 当我思考我们在行业中的角色时，核心就是：我们能做什么来帮助美国在技术上取胜？ Um and that's that's everything from what we invest in to how we integrate into um the government and make it accessible to all the citizens and in you know integrate with our allies and so forth. 这涵盖我们投资什么、如何融入政府、如何让科技惠及所有公民，以及如何与盟友协作，等等。 And so it's a big mission. 这是一个宏大的使命。 Um it's a lot of work. 是很大的工作量。 uh and you know it's what it's why we American dynamism in the conference and everything. 这也是我们做American Dynamism、开办大会的原因。 Yeah. 对。 We you you know you have said that the American way you know giving people a shot uh that if we lose this technology race if America loses its technology edge and this dominance that the entire world will lose as well. 你说过，美国给人机会这件事——如果我们输掉这场技术竞赛，如果美国失去技术优势和主导地位，整个世界也会一起失去。 What what makes the American system irreplaceable? 美国体制为什么无可替代？ Why is our techn technological dominance not just good for America but actually good for for the world at large? 为什么美国的技术主导地位不仅对美国有利，对整个世界也有利？ Yes. 对。 So I think a lot of things go into it but to to me it always comes back to there's a line in the Declaration of Independence um that is very well known but um also underrated which is we hold these truths to be self-evident. 很多因素共同作用，但对我来说，始终回归到《独立宣言》中一句众所周知却又被低估的话——「我们认为这些真理是不言而喻的」。 And what does that mean? 这是什么意思？ Um well it means that you know these truths didn't come from us. 意思是，这些真理不是我们创造的。 They're they're truths they are self-evident. 它们本身就是自明的。 They came from a higher thing. 来自更高的存在。 They came from God. 来自上帝。 We didn't make these rules. 这些规则不是我们制定的。 We didn't give you these rights. 这些权利不是我们给你的。 We didn't give you this freedom. 这些自由不是我们给你的。 Um it came from something else. 来自别的什么。 And that's really really important because it means like if I'm the president, if I'm Congress, no matter who I am, I can't change it. 这非常重要——它意味着，不管我是总统还是国会议员，无论是谁，都无法改变它。 No matter how much I want to change it. 无论我多想改变。 And you know there there are many uh who who would like to change some things who think they know better um than each other. 当然有很多人想改变某些东西，觉得自己比别人懂。 Yeah. 对。 Yeah. 对。 And you know like that is a thing. 这确实是一回事。 Um but because of that uh those the freedoms that you have in America can are really really protected to a degree that they're not in any other country and they're very hard to lose. 正因为如此，美国的自由受到了其他任何国家都无法比拟的保护，而且很难被剥夺。 And we've seen this you know um there's just a great talk about free speech. 我们在言论自由问题上看到过这一点。 We've seen this with free speech where countries are like, well, you know, maybe that's not such a good idea anymore. 我们看到有些国家开始觉得，言论自由也许不再是个好主意了。 But if uh the if it can't be taken if it didn't come from people, it can't be taken away from people. 但如果这种自由不是由人给予的，就无法被人剥夺。 And that's been very very powerful and very persistent, I think, over the entire uh history of the country. 这一点在整个建国历史中都极具威力，也非常持久。 Um and and it's really unique. 这是真正独一无二的。 Uh you know, there there aren't other countries who have uh quite as strong a version of that. 没有哪个国家拥有如此强大的版本。 Absolutely. 当然。 You've seen since we've launched uh you know it's now been four plus years since we launched the American Dynamism practice. 自从我们推出American Dynamism项目以来，已经四年多了。 We're on our second fund. 我们正在进行第二支基金。 Uh you and and Mark have been incredible supporters of this effort uh of investing in the national interest at the intersection of advanced uh software and hardware and you know rebuilding not just the defense industrial base but manufacturing and and all the the precursors that go along with it. 你和Mark是这项事业的坚定支持者——在国家利益的交叉点投资先进软硬件，重建国防工业基础、制造业及其配套体系。 Um, what's been most surprising to you that you've learned about investing at these intersections of national security and venture capital? 在国家安全与风险投资的交叉点上投资，你最大的意外收获是什么？ You know, along with it came a big presence in in Washington. 这带来了在华盛顿的大量存在。 Uh, so what what what's been the most surprising? 最大的意外是什么？ What do you think the biggest learning has been? 最大的收获是什么？ Well, you know, it's been interesting because the if you go back to kind of pre-Chat GPT, the conventional wisdom was, you know, China had this big AI lead on us. 有意思的是，回到ChatGPT出现之前，主流观点是中国在AI上遥遥领先于我们。 Um and then chat GPD comes out and says oh well maybe no we have a lead on now and then you know things have evolved from there. ChatGPT出来之后，大家说，也许不是，我们现在领先了——之后又持续演变。 But the the thing that was true about the kind of old incorrect idea was that they were way ahead of us in integrating um their AI technology with uh their government you know on a kind of military basis on a bureaucracy basis you know and all facets and so you know when we started we were coming from I would say very far behind you know in that you know in that idea um the thing that's been surprising though is like how fast um we've been catching up. 那时那个错误观点里有一件事是真的：他们在将AI技术整合进政府方面——军事、行政体系各个层面——远远领先于我们。所以我们起步时落后很多。但令人惊喜的是，我们追赶的速度非常快。 Uh and I think that that's been really kind of heartening from both the number of entrepreneurs that want to help and then um the willingness of the US government to say, "Hey, we're interested in these new technologies. 这让我很振奋，一方面是想出一份力的创业者越来越多，另一方面是美国政府愿意说：「我们对这些新技术感兴趣， We're interested in these new companies. 我们对这些新公司感兴趣。 We're not stuck in our ways. 我们不墨守成规。 Um we'll change the rules if we have to." 规则不合适，我们就改。」 And that's been uh you know it's been amazingly fruitful and I think that you know we're seeing it in the kind of current conflicts that we have uh and um you know it gives me great hope that you know if we keep at it that that we'll be very strong going forward. 这非常有成效。我认为我们从当前的一些冲突中已经看到了成果，这让我非常有信心——只要坚持下去，我们会非常强大。 Yeah, I agree. 对，我同意。 I think this is a moment of optimism to see just how quickly things can shift uh when there's a sense of urgency and and a sense of change makers. 这是一个乐观的时刻——能看到当紧迫感和变革者到位时，事情可以转变得多快。 Uh I want to talk about AI and policy. 我想聊聊AI和政策。 Uh we had uh Emil Michael earlier, the under secretary of war for research and development, CTO of the department of war here. 今天早些时候，国防部研究与工程副部长、国防部CTO Emil Michael也来了。 He was obviously in the news uh talking about anthropic over the last week, but this isn't an an issue. 他上周因为Anthropic的事登上了新闻，但这不是孤立事件。 It may have bubbled up to the mainstream news in the last week, but this has been an ongoing issue. 这件事上周才进入主流媒体视野，但其实一直是个持续性的问题。 Um let's just actually talk about anthropic and AI that's like directly headon right now. 咱们直接聊聊Anthropic和AI这个当下的核心问题吧。 Yeah. 好。 Um and then we'll talk broader about policy in Washington. 然后再谈谈华盛顿的更广泛政策。 Yeah. 好。 So, look, I think to to me the thing on the whole anthropic kurfuffle um that nobody's really said out loud, but is the obvious thing that happened is, you know, if you understand deals, particularly software deals, you realize that that deal did not fall apart because of philosophical differences. 关于整个Anthropic风波，我觉得有一件明摆着但没人说出口的事：如果你懂交易，尤其是软件交易，就会知道这笔交易不是因为理念分歧告吹的。 It fell apart because Ananthropic wanted out of the deal. 是Anthropic自己想退出。 Um, and you know that because they had all the leverage. 你知道这一点，因为主动权完全在他们手里。 you know, they were already deployed. 他们已经在部署了。 We're about to go to war. 我们即将开战。