Sarah Paine — 普京与习近平为何逃不出地理的宿命

Good evening. 晚上好。 It's such a pleasure to be with you. 很高兴能和大家在一起。 I'm going to make an argument today about how the world is organized or at least how different types of empires back in the day tried to organize it. 我今天要讲的，是关于这个世界的组织方式，或者说，历史上不同类型的帝国是如何试图组织它的。 It turns out that continental and maritime powers tried to organize the world in very different ways and that these have real uh implications in our own day. 事实证明，大陆型强权与海洋型强权在组织世界的方式上截然不同，而这些差异在当今时代仍有实实在在的影响。 Uh and I'm going to be using terminology from geopolitics and also grand strategy. 呃，我会用到地缘政治学和大战略这两个领域的术语。 What is that? 那是什么？ Geopolitics is the influence of geography on politics and grand strategy is grand in the number of instruments of national power that it integrates. 地缘政治学研究地理对政治的影响；大战略之所以称其为大，在于它整合了国家权力的众多要素。 And you're thinking, well, what are they? 你可能在想，那都有哪些要素？ And think about who sits on a cabinet around a president who gets convened. 想想总统召集的内阁成员都有谁。 Those are the elements of national power, right? 他们就是国家权力的组成部分，对吧？ So you've got the state department, diplomacy, the military, you've got finance, agriculture, you got a whole long list of people. 所以，有国务院、外交官、军队、财政部、农业部，一长串人都在其中。 and you want to integrate these uh these things. 你需要把这些……这些元素整合起来。 But before I get going, I'm going to give you a um a sneak detour, a really whirlwind tour of American history, which I'll get done really fast along with a tour of some of the great geopoliticians. 但在正式开讲之前，我要先给你们一个简短的插曲，一场走马观花式的美国史之旅，我会很快带大家过一遍，顺带介绍几位伟大的地缘政治思想家。 And uh before I will after that appetizer, I will deliver the promised main course. 呃，在那道开胃菜之后，我会再奉上承诺中的主菜。 Okay, this is June 6th, 1944, D-Day, Normandy landings, where sea power, maritime power meets land power. 好，这是1944年6月6日，D日，诺曼底登陆，海权与陆权的正面交锋。 It turns out maritime powers are the exception and continental powers are the rule. 事实证明，海洋型强权是例外，大陆型强权才是常态。 Why? 为什么？ Because maritime powers, if need be, can defend themselves primarily at sea with their navies. 因为海洋型强权在必要时，主要可以依靠海军在海上保卫自己。 Whereas a continental power simply cannot, think Ukraine, a navy is not going to save them from Russia. 而大陆型强权就做不到，想想乌克兰，海军救不了它免受俄罗斯的进攻。 So uh this is the first distinguishing characteristic between a maritime and continental power whether it is feasible to defend yourself at sea or not. 所以，这是区分海洋型强权与大陆型强权的第一个特征：在海上自我防卫是否可行。 And from this comes some implications that if you sit in a continental world you had better have a competent army and if you're a maritime power to defend yourself you better have a pretty good navy. 由此引申出一些含义：身处大陆格局中，就必须拥有一支能打仗的陆军；若是海洋型强权，则必须拥有一支相当强大的海军。 But these implications go beyond the military to economics and politics as well. 但这些含义不仅限于军事，也延伸到经济和政治领域。 And I'll go into these, but this country began its life as a continental power all about expanding to guess what here, right? 我会深入展开讲，不过这个国家最初是作为大陆型强权起步的，一心想着向西扩张到……猜猜是哪里，对吧？ To the west coast. 西海岸。 And uh the United States tried invading Canada a couple times. 美国曾几次试图入侵加拿大。 Not a new idea. 这不是什么新鲜想法。 In 1775 and 1812, the British won those things and we had to back off on that idea. 1775年和1812年，英国人都赢了，美国不得不放弃那个念头。 And then you get here, President Monroe declaring the Monroe Doctrine, which is a classic continental spheres of influence, stay out of my backyard moment. 后来门罗总统宣布了门罗主义，这是大陆型势力范围划分的经典之作，别踏入我的后院。 Uh, the only trick was that the United States was so weak in those days, telling the Europeans to stay out of the Americas was just on the wish list. 呃，唯一的问题是，当时美国实在太弱了，警告欧洲人不得插手美洲事务，不过是停留在愿望清单上。 It was impossible to deal with. 根本没有能力兑现。 But if you look at the United States, how it became the United States, it's all about territorial expansion to reach the West Coast. 但如果你回顾美国如何成为今天的美国，整个过程都是围绕着领土扩张，以抵达西海岸为目标。 And unlike a typical continental power which does this with massed armies, the United States preferred checkbook diplomacy. 不同于典型大陆型强权依靠大规模军队实现这一目标，美国更偏好支票外交。 So when Napoleon Bonapart was short of cash in 1803, that's when the Louisiana purchases made. 1803年拿破仑·波拿巴手头拮据，于是就有了路易斯安那购地案。 And then when uh the Russians were short of cash, a perennial problem, that's when the United States bought not only Alaska but the northern part of the the West Coast. 后来俄国人也手头拮据，这是个老毛病，于是美国不仅买下了阿拉斯加，还买下了西海岸北段。 But when the checks were not accepted, which is what happened with Mexico, uh the United States did the standard mass armies approach in the Mexican-American War, and that's how the United States gets uh Texas. 但支票行不通的时候，比如墨西哥不买账，美国就走了大规模军队那条老路，发动了美墨战争，就这样拿下了德克萨斯。 So that the next check offered the Mexicans accept. 于是再开出一张支票，这次墨西哥人接受了。 And that's the Gatston purchase, which gets the United States, Tucson, Arizona, and other places. 那就是加兹登购地案，美国由此得到了亚利桑那州图森以及其他地方。 The longest counterinsurgency in this country's history was against the native population that put up a really bitter struggle. 这个国家历史上最漫长的反叛乱战争，是对抗原住民的战争，他们进行了极其顽强的抵抗。 So the it's not the longest counterinsurgency is not the recent stuff in the Middle East. 所以，最漫长的反叛乱战争并不是近年的中东战事。 It's about what we did to the native population here that eventually had to give up. 而是我们对原住民所做的一切，他们最终不得不投降。 And the Americans had a name for their national expansion. 美国人给自己的国家扩张起了个名字。 It was manifest destiny. 叫天定命运。 the idea there was an obvious uh fate of America or the United States to uh control a good part of North America and there were all about territorial expansion and this painting which hangs in the I think it's the western staircase as you're getting into the chamber of the house of representatives it goes by the politically correct title nowadays a westward hoe well that's not the title when it was painted it was westward the course of empire takes its way 核心理念是，美国注定要控制北美的大部分地区，他们的一切都围绕着领土扩张。那幅画挂在……我想是众议院议事厅入口的西侧楼梯间，如今它的官方名称政治正确，叫做西进吧，但它最初的名字不是这个，原名是帝国的征程向西行。 Americans were all about expansion and proud of 美国人热衷扩张，并为之自豪， However, a different view starts emerging in the late 19th century propended by it was captain then later Admiral Alfred the Mahan who is by far the most famous professor ever associated with the naval war college where I spent 24 years of my career and what he's looking at the more he goes actually power in the position in the world really isn't a function so much of continental expansion and consolidation but really it's about all the wealth you can acrue from trade and he thought there were certain prerequisites to um follow a maritime security paradigm. 然而，一种不同的观点开始在19世纪末兴起，由马汉上尉，后来晋升为海军上将，提出。他是与海军战争学院最著名的相关学者，我在那里度过了24年的职业生涯。他越来越认识到，一个国家在世界上的权力与地位，其实并不主要取决于大陆扩张与整合，而更在于通过贸易积累的财富。他认为，遵循海洋安全模式有若干前提条件。 What are they? 是哪些？ One, you need a moat. 第一，你需要一道护城河。 You cannot be subject to uh invasion right across your border or it's over. 你不能随时面临跨境入侵的风险，否则就什么都谈不上。 Secondly, you need a dense internal transportation grid in order to get the goods out in peace time. 其次，你需要一个密集的国内交通网络，以便在和平时期将货物运出去。 You need reliable egress by sea to get the navy out in wartime. 战时还需要可靠的出海通道，确保海军能够出动。 And you need a dense coastal population. 你还需要密集的沿海人口。 These are the people going to be running all the commerce. 这些人将是推动商业运转的主力。 And uh you also need stable government institutions that are going to be stable in the sense that they're going to fund a navy and that they're going to pass laws that are going to u make commerce happen. 另外，你还需要稳定的政府制度，稳定到足以持续资助海军、立法促进商业活动。 If you look at these prerequisites and you look at China and Russia today, neither one has the full list. 如果你对照这些前提条件来看今天的中国和俄罗斯，两者都不具备完整清单上的条件。 Far from it. 远远达不到。 Neither one has a mode. 两者都没有护城河。 Both of them have more neighbors than any two other countries on the planet. 它们的邻国数量比地球上任何其他两个国家都多。 And many of those neighbors don't like them at all for excellent reasons. 而且很多邻国对它们并没有好感，原因充分。 Russia has a lamentable internal transportation grid whereas China's has been improving. 俄罗斯的国内交通网络差强人意，而中国在这方面已有所改善。 Neither one has reliable egress by sea surrounded as they are by narrow uh in the case of China island clustered seas with a whole and Russia as well loads of of neighbors. 两者都没有可靠的出海通道：中国被一连串海峡和岛链包围，俄罗斯同样四面都是邻国。 These places tend to get blockaded and closed down in wartime. 这些地方在战时往往遭到封锁、被迫关闭。 Russia has reliable egress up north. 俄罗斯在北方有出海通道。 Well, great. 好吧，听起来不错。 No one lives there. 但那里根本没人住。 What do you want to do? 你能做什么？ go pet a polar bear, polar bear, it will not work out. 去摸北极熊？那可不会有好结果。 In addition, uh on dense coastal population, yes, China has dense coastal population, but again, it's onto a narrow sea. 此外，关于密集的沿海人口，是的，中国沿海人口密集，但同样面朝那片狭窄的内海。 Russia does not have a dense coastal population up north. 俄罗斯北方沿海地区人口并不密集。 And uh Russia's never had a commerce-driven economy. 而且俄罗斯从来没有以商业为驱动的经济。 China much more so under Dang Xiaoping, but recently Xiinping has been priv privileging the crony sector over the private sector. 中国在邓小平时代进步了不少，但习近平近来把扶持权贵的裙带部门置于私营部门之上。 And neither one has stable government institutions. 两者都没有稳定的政府制度。 What's the litmus test for that one? 判断标准是什么？ That would be transparent regular elections and dictatorship for life does not remotely qualify. 定期举行透明选举。终身独裁，完全不沾边。 So, China and Russia certainly have maritime ambitions. 所以，中国和俄罗斯当然有海洋野心。 Uh but I'm not clear they actually understand what goes into uh an full maritime paradigm. 但我不确定它们真正理解完整的海洋模式需要什么。 Anyway, um there was a counterargument to man that comes a generation later by a Britain, Sir Halford McKiner, who's looking at the world and looking at Britain's problems and he thinks that actually Russia occupies the best uh geopolitical location in the world, not Great Britain because and this is a map from his 1904 article and he defines as the pivot area. 无论如何，麦金德的反驳声音在一代人之后出现了。一位英国人，哈尔福德·麦金德爵士，他审视世界，研究英国面临的困境，认为实际上俄罗斯占据了世界上地缘政治上最有利的位置，而不是大英帝国。这是他1904年论文中的地图，他定义了枢纽地带。 Eurasia is the part of the world he's focusing on and it's where Russia is and he also calls it the great heartland and he said look that area the pivot area is the citadel of land power on the great mainland of the world it is the greatest natural fortress on the world why because it's insulated by mountains deserts uh frozen seas and rivers that uh exit onto the oceans and very inaccessible places during wartime time and therefore it is impervious to sea power that Britain can't really get at at this area and he said but if you occupy the heartland this pivot area you have the possibility for defense in depth strategic uh retreat and selfsufficiency so the heartland is not insulated by the sea it's insulated from the sea and a maritime power like Britain if it wants to influence the heartland land. 他聚焦的是欧亚大陆，俄罗斯所在之处，他也称之为大心脏地带。他说：那片枢纽地带是整个世界大陆地权的堡垒，是世界上最大的天然要塞。为什么？因为它四面环绕着山脉、沙漠、冰封的海洋，以及流向大洋极难进入的出口，战时几乎无懈可击。因此，英国的海权根本无法真正触及这一地区。他说，但如果你占据了心脏地带这片枢纽区域，你就拥有纵深防御、战略撤退和自给自足的可能性。所以，心脏地带不是被海洋隔绝，而是与海洋隔绝；像英国这样的海洋型强权，若想影响心脏地带， It's got to do it on the periphery. 就只能在外围施加影响。 In those days, it would be through having colonies in these very uh strategic locations. 在那个年代，是通过在这些极具战略价值的地点设立殖民地。 In our own day, would be having allies with bases in these locations. 在当今，是通过在这些地点与盟国共用基地。 Uh this man Nicholas Spikeman was also very concerned about who controls Eurasia. 尼古拉斯·斯皮克曼也非常关注谁控制欧亚大陆。 He felt that the country that controls Eurasia could well control the world. 他认为，控制欧亚大陆的国家很可能控制整个世界。 and he had much to worry about when he completed his very important work in 1943, the year he dies. 他完成了一部极为重要的著作，于1943年他去世那年出版。 He's a naturalized American citizen from the Netherlands, then under Nazi occupation, and he felt that the Nazis had come really close to dominating Eurasia in 1941. 他是来自荷兰的归化美国公民，当时荷兰正处于纳粹占领之下。他认为，纳粹在1941年曾非常接近于主宰整个欧亚大陆。 And here's what he said. 他是这样说的： Despite occupying the uh the safest position of any nation in the world, we Americans have been involved in two devastating world wars in the space of a quarter of a century. 尽管美国占据着世界上任何国家中最安全的地理位置，我们却在短短四分之一个世纪内卷入了两场毁灭性的世界大战。 And in the second one, i.e. the ongoing one, we are at one point uh and in serious danger of defeat. 而在第二场，也就是正在进行中的这场，我们曾一度面临严重的战败危险。 The expectations of US statesmen regarding the outcome of their actions were consistently wrong and their thinking about national security generally fail to provide successful answers. 美国政治家们对自身行动结果的预判屡屡失误，他们在国家安全问题上的思考，总体而言未能提供有效答案。 sound familiar? 听起来耳熟吗？ Uh in addition, he's looking at the world and he said, "Look, the influence of the United States can be brought to bear in Europe and Far East only by means of seaborn traffic and the power of the states of Eurasia can reach us effectively only by crossing the seas." 另外，他审视世界后说：美国的影响力只能通过海上运输投射到欧洲和远东；而欧亚大国的权力要想有效触及我们，也只能跨越大洋。 And this is true despite the development of air power because big things go by sea and they still do. 即便有了空权，这个判断依然成立，因为大件货物依旧走海路，至今如此。 Therefore, US security was a function of sea power and that sanctuary at home and by that I mean in invulnerability to attack is a function of a maritime shield. 因此，美国的安全取决于海权，而国土安全，也就是免受攻击的能力，则取决于这道海洋盾牌。 And Spikeman is really concerned who control controls the rimland of this great heartland, friend or foe. 斯皮克曼真正关心的是：谁在控制这片大心脏地带的边缘地区，是友是敌？ And here's why. 原因如下： The United States will have to depend on her sea power communication across the Atlantic and the Pacific to give her access to the old world. 美国将不得不依赖穿越大西洋和太平洋的海上交通，才能进入旧世界。 And the effect of this of this act access is going to delimmit what sort of foreign policy the United States can have. 而这种接入能力将决定美国能够推行什么样的外交政策。 And what the United States requires is a continental ally who can provide a base from which land power can be exercised. 美国所需要的，是一个能够提供基地、使陆权得以施展的大陆盟友。 What he's saying in World War II, victoring that thing is going to depend on alliances and allies. 他在二战中说的意思是：赢得这场战争，要靠联盟和盟友。 critical. 至关重要。 All right. 好。