We've seen the valuations of a bunch of software companies crash because people are expecting AI to commoditize software. 许多软件公司估值崩塌，因为市场预期 AI 会让软件商品化。 There's a potentially naive way of thinking about things, which is: look, Nvidia sends a GDS2 file to TSMC. 有一种听起来很朴素的看法：NVIDIA 向 TSMC 发送 GDS2 文件， TSMC builds the logic dies, it builds the switches, then it packages them with the HBM that SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung make. TSMC 制造逻辑芯片和开关，再与 SK Hynix、Micron、Samsung 的 HBM 封装在一起。 Then it sends it to an ODM in Taiwan where they assemble the racks. 然后运到台湾的 ODM 完成机架组装。 Nvidia is fundamentally making software that other people are manufacturing, and if software gets commoditized, does Nvidia get commoditized? NVIDIA 本质上是在做软件，制造交给别人——如果软件被商品化，NVIDIA 也会被商品化吗？ In the end, something has to transform electrons to tokens. 许多软件公司估值崩塌，因为市场预期 AI 会让软件商品化。 The transformation of electrons to tokens and making those tokens more valuable over time 将电子转化为 tokens、并让这些 tokens 不断增值， is 将电子转化为 tokens、并让这些 tokens 不断增值， hard to completely commoditize. 将电子转化为 tokens、并让这些 tokens 不断增值， The transformation from electrons to tokens is such an incredible journey. 将电子转化为 tokens，是一段令人叹为观止的旅程。 Making that token is like making one molecule more valuable than another molecule, making one token more valuable than another. 造一个 token 就像让一种分子比另一种更有价值，让一个 token 比另一个更珍贵。 The amount of artistry, engineering, science, and invention that goes into making that token valuable, obviously we're watching it happen in real time. 让 token 变得有价值所需的艺术、工程、科学与发明，我们正在实时见证这一切。 The transformation, the manufacturing, all of the science that goes in there is far from deeply understood and the journey is far from over. 这背后的转化过程、制造工艺、所有的科学——远未被深刻理解，这段旅程远未结束。 I doubt that it will happen. 我不认为会发生商品化。 We're going to make it more efficient, of course. 当然，我们会持续提升效率。 The way that you framed the question is my mental model of our company. 你描述问题的方式，正是我对我们公司的心智模型。 The input is electrons, the output is tokens. 输入是电子，输出是 tokens。 In the middle is Nvidia. 中间是 NVIDIA。 Our job is to do as much as necessary and as little as possible to enable that transformation to be done at incredible capabilities. 我们的工作是尽其所需、尽其所少，让这场转化以惊人的能力完成。 What I mean by"as little as possible," whatever I don't need to do, I partner with somebody and make it part of my ecosystem. 「尽其所少」的意思是：凡是我不必做的，我就找合作伙伴，让他们成为生态的一部分。 If you look at Nvidia today, we probably have the largest ecosystem of partners, both in the supply chain upstream and downstream, all of the computer companies, application developers, and model makers. 今天的 NVIDIA，拥有可能是全球最大的合作伙伴生态——上游供应链、计算公司、应用开发者、模型厂商。 AI is a five-layer cake, if you will. AI 就像一块五层蛋糕。 We have ecosystems across the entire five layers. 我们在全部五层都有生态。 We try to do as little as possible, but the part that we have to do, as it turns out, is insanely hard. 我们尽量少做，但必须由我们来做的那部分——事实证明难得出奇。 I don't think that gets commoditized. 我不认为这部分会被商品化。 In fact, I also don't think the enterprise software companies, the tools makers 其实我也不认为企业软件公司、工具制造商—— Most software companies today are tool makers. 当今大多数软件公司都是工具制造商。 Some of them are not. 当然也有例外。 Some of them are workflow codification systems. 有些是工作流程编码系统。 But for a lot of companies, they're tool makers. 但对很多公司而言，他们就是工具制造商。 For example, Excel is a tool, PowerPoint is a tool, Cadence makes tools, Synopsys makes tools. 比如 Excel 是工具，PowerPoint 是工具，Cadence 做工具，Synopsys 也做工具。 I actually see the opposite of what people see. 我看到的恰恰与大多数人相反。 I think the number of agents is going to grow exponentially, and the number of tool users is going to grow exponentially. 我认为 agents 的数量会指数级增长，使用这些工具的用户也会指数级增长。 It's very likely that the number of instances of 这些工具的实例数量，极有可能会暴增。 all these tools is going to skyrocket. 这些工具的实例数量，极有可能会暴增。 It's very likely that the number of instances of Synopsys Design Compiler is going to skyrocket, along with the number of agents using the floor planners, our layout tools, and our design rule checkers. Synopsys Design Compiler 的实例数量极有可能暴增，使用布局规划器、布线工具、设计规则检查器的 agents 数量也会随之激增。 Today we're limited by the number of engineers. 今天我们受制于工程师人数。 Tomorrow, those engineers are going to be supported by a bunch of agents. 明天，这些工程师将有大量 agents 辅助。 We're going to be exploring the design space like you've never seen before, and we're going to use the tools that we use today. 我们将以前所未有的方式探索设计空间，使用的仍是我们今天所用的工具。 I think tool use is going to cause the software companies to skyrocket. 我认为工具使用的爆发，将让软件公司飞速增长。 The reason why it hasn't happened yet is because the agents aren't good enough at using their tools yet. 之所以还没发生，是因为 agents 还不够善于使用这些工具。 Either these companies are going to build the agents themselves, or agents are going to get good enough to be able to use those tools. 这些公司要么自己开发 agents，要么等 agents 成熟到能用好这些工具。 I think it's going to be a combination of both. 我认为两者都会发生。 I think in your latest filings, you had almost a$100 billion in purchase commitments with foundries, memory, and packaging. 据你们最新的财务文件，与晶圆厂、内存和封装的采购承诺接近 1000 亿美元。 SemiAnalysis has reported that you will have$250 billion of these kinds of purchase commitments. SemiAnalysis 报道称，这类采购承诺将达 2500 亿美元。 One interpretation is that Nvidia's moat is really that you've locked up many years of these scarce components. 一种解读是：NVIDIA 的护城河在于锁定了多年的稀缺元件产能。 Somebody else might have an accelerator, but can they actually get the memory to build it? 别人可能有加速器，但他们能拿到足够的内存来制造吗？ Can they actually get the logic to build it? 他们能拿到足够的逻辑芯片来制造吗？ Is this really Nvidia's big moat for the next few years? 这是否才是 NVIDIA 未来几年真正的护城河？ It's one of the things that we can do that is hard for someone else to do. 这是我们能做到、别人难以复制的事情之一。 We've made enormous commitments upstream. 我们在上游做了大量承诺。 Some of it is explicit, these commitments that you mentioned. 有些是你提到的显性承诺。 Some of it is implicit. 有些是隐性的。 For example, a lot of the investments that are upstream are made by our supply chain because I said to the CEOs,"Let me tell you how big this industry is going to be, let me explain to you why, let me reason through it with you, and let me show you what I see." 比如，上游很多投资是由我们供应链做的，因为我对各位 CEO 说：「让我告诉你这个行业会有多大，让我解释原因，让我和你一起推演，让我给你看我看到的。」 As a result of that process of 经过这个告知、激励、与上下游各行业 CEO 达成共识的过程，他们愿意做出投资。 informing, inspiring, and aligning with CEOs of all different industries upstream, they're willing to make the investments. 经过这个告知、激励、与上下游各行业 CEO 达成共识的过程，他们愿意做出投资。 Why are they willing to make the investments for me and not someone else? 为什么他们愿意为我投资而不是别人？ The reason for that is because they know that I have the capacity to buy their supply and sell it through my downstream. 因为他们知道，我有能力消化他们的供给，并通过我的下游分销出去。 The fact is that Nvidia's downstream supply chain and our downstream demand is so large, they're willing to make the investment upstream. NVIDIA 的下游供应链和下游需求如此庞大，他们才愿意在上游投资。 If you look 如果你看 at GTC, people are marveled by the scale of it and the people that go. GTC 的规模和到场人数让所有人叹为观止。 It's a full 360 degrees, the entire universe of AI all in one place. 360 度全覆盖，AI 的整个宇宙汇聚一堂。 They're all in one place because they need to see each other. 他们聚集一处，是因为彼此都需要见到对方。 I bring them together so that the downstream can see the upstream, the upstream can see the downstream, and all of them can see the advances in AI. 我把他们聚在一起，让下游看到上游，上游看到下游，所有人见证 AI 的进步。 Very importantly, they can all meet the AI natives, all the AI startups being built, and all the amazing things happening so they can see firsthand all the things that I tell them. 更重要的是，他们能认识所有 AI 原生公司、所有在创建的 AI 初创企业，亲眼见证我告诉他们的一切。 I spend a lot of my time informing, directly or indirectly, our supply chain, partners, and ecosystem about the opportunity in front of us. 我花大量时间，直接或间接地让供应链、合作伙伴和生态系统了解我们面前的机遇。 Some people always say,"Jensen, 总有人说：「Jensen， in most keynotes, it's one announcement after another." 总有人说：「Jensen， With our 我们的主题演讲，总有一部分有点「折磨」，因为感觉像是在上课。 keynotes, 我们的主题演讲，总有一部分有点「折磨」，因为感觉像是在上课。 there's always a part of it that's a little torturous in the sense that it almost comes across like education. 我们的主题演讲，总有一部分有点「折磨」，因为感觉像是在上课。 In fact, that's exactly on my mind. 事实上，这正是我的用意。 I need to make sure the entire supply chain, upstream and downstream, the ecosystem, understands what is coming at us, why it's coming, when it's coming, how big it's going to be, and is able to reason about it systematically, just like I reason about it. 我必须确保整个上下游供应链、整个生态系统，都明白将要发生什么、为何发生、何时发生、规模有多大，并能像我一样系统地推演。 Regarding the moat as you describe it, we're able to build for a future. 关于你说的护城河，我们能够为未来而构建。 If our next several years are a trillion dollars in scale, we have the supply chain to do it. 如果未来几年的规模达到万亿美元，我们有供应链来支撑。 Without our reach, the velocity of our business 如果没有我们的触达力，我们业务的速度—— Just as there's cash flow, there's supply chain flow, there's churns. 就像有现金流，也有供应链流，有周转率。 Nobody is going to build a supply chain for an architecture if the business churns are low. 如果业务周转率低，没人会为一套架构构建供应链。 Our ability to sustain the scale is only because our downstream demand is so great. 我们能维持这一规模，只因下游需求如此旺盛。 And they see it, they hear about it, they see it all coming. 他们看到了，听到了，预见到了一切。 That allows us to do the things we're able to do at the scale we do them. 这让我们能以我们的规模做我们所能做的事。 I do want to understand more concretely whether the upstream can keep up. 我想更具体地了解上游能否跟得上。 For many years now, you guys have been 2x-ing revenue year over year. 多年来，你们的营收一直在年年翻倍。 You've been more than tripling the amount of flops you're providing to the world year over year. 你们向世界提供的算力，每年增速超过三倍。 And 2x-ing at this scale now is really incredible. 在这个规模上翻倍，真的了不起。 Exactly. 没错。 But then you look at logic. 但再看逻辑芯片这边。 You're the biggest customer on TSMC's N3 node, and you're one of the biggest on N2. 你们是 TSMC N3 节点最大的客户，也是 N2 最大的客户之一。 AI as a whole this year is going to be sixty percent of N3. 今年，AI 整体将占 N3 的 60%。 It's going to be 86% next year, according to SemiAnalysis. 据 SemiAnalysis，明年将达 86%。 How do you double if you're the majority? 你们已经是多数，还怎么翻倍？ And how do you do that year over year? 而且年年都要翻倍？ Are we in a regime now where the growth rate in AI compute has to slow because of upstream? AI 算力增长是否因上游瓶颈而必须放缓？ Do you see a way to get around this? 有没有办法绕过这个问题？ How do we build 2x more fabs year over year, ultimately? 最终，怎么做到晶圆厂产能每年翻倍？ At some level, 某种程度上，瞬时需求已超过全球上下游的供给总量。 the instantaneous demand is greater than the supply upstream and downstream in the world. 某种程度上，瞬时需求已超过全球上下游的供给总量。 At any instant, we could be limited by the number of plumbers, which actually happens. 在任何时刻，我们都可能被水管工的数量所限制——这确实发生过。 The plumbers are invited to next year's GTC. 水管工们已被邀请参加明年的 GTC。 By the way, great idea. 说真的，这是个好主意。