离开特斯拉重建美国的创始人们 | a16z

The US is 50 years behind on critical mineral supply. 美国在关键矿产供应方面落后了 50 年。 We are too slow at designing, building, and ramping up new minerals capacity, even after we have licensed to operate. 我们在设计、建设和提升新矿产产能方面太慢了，哪怕已经获得了运营许可。 Even though there's so much innovation happening at the edge of the grid, on the other side of the wire, there's really been no change. 电网边缘正在发生大量创新，但在电线的另一侧，也就是电网本身，几乎没有任何变化。 You both came out of Tesla. 你们俩都从 Tesla 出来的。 What does the Tesla model give you that a traditional industrial company doesn't have? Tesla 的模式给了你们什么，是传统工业公司没有的？ The belief that you can innovate on systems that are old and archaic. 是那种信念：相信你能在古老落后的系统上做创新。 If the outcome is worth it, Tesla will fight through the challenges of getting to that outcome. 如果结果值得，Tesla 会一路打通障碍去实现它。 We're making a big bet on autonomy and refineries, where we use reinforcement learning to actually remove humans from the loop in determining how refineries operate. 我们在自主化和精炼厂上押了大赌注，用强化学习把人从决策回路中移除，让系统自己决定精炼厂怎么运行。 The world's leading producer of silicon carbide, which is a key power semiconductor, is based here in the US, and so we should be leveraging the applications of that technology here first, manufacturing here at home. 全球领先的碳化硅 silicon carbide 生产商是关键功率半导体，就在美国本土，所以我们应该首先在这里把这项技术的应用落地，在本地制造。 And if we don't 如果我们不这样做的话 Now, it's tempting to talk about the AI race as a competition of models and chips. 现在，人们很容易把 AI 竞赛看作是模型和芯片的比拼。 But the truth is that AI dominance and re-industrialization more broadly are physical projects. 但事实是，AI 领导力，以及更广泛意义上的再工业化，本质上是物理项目。 They are energy projects. 是能源项目。 They are mining and refining projects. 是采矿和冶炼项目。 They are manufacturing projects. 是制造项目。 They are grid-scale projects. 是电网规模的项目。 Every breakthrough model, new factory, and autonomous system that we'll talk about here today has a real-world requirement underneath it. 我们今天要讨论的每一个突破性模型、新工厂和自主系统，背后都有现实世界的硬性需求。 Materials, energy, and the ability to move electricity where it's needed, when it's needed. 材料、能源，以及在需要的时候把电输送到需要的地方的能力。 We increasingly hear concerns that AI will put an undue strain on an already faltering grid, will demand more energy than we can give, more build-out than we can keep up with. 我们越来越多地听到这样的担忧：AI 会给本已脆弱的电网带来过大压力，会消耗超出我们能供给的能源，会产生超出我们能跟上的建设需求。 And in many ways, these are fair concerns. 在很多方面，这些担忧是合理的。 But rather than taking this at face value and putting our pencils down on progress, we see this as a call to action, an opportunity. 但与其把这些当作定论放弃前进，我们把它看作是一个行动号召，一个机会。 We can do great things in this country. 这个国家能做成大事。 We have rallied around national projects before, accomplished things few dreamed possible, and we can do so again. 我们曾经齐心协力完成过国家级项目，做成了很少有人敢想象的事，我们可以再做一次。 This is the next chapter of American dynamism. 这是美国活力的下一章。 If we want to rebuild the industrial backbone of the United States, we have to rethink the entire stack from critical minerals to energy generation to transmission to how we build and interconnect new infrastructure at the speed that it's needed. 如果我们想重建美国的工业脊梁，就必须重新审视整个技术栈，从关键矿产到能源发电，到输电，再到以所需的速度建设和互联新基础设施。 This next conversation brings together two incredible entrepreneurs building across that stack to talk about what it will take to do just that. 下一场对话汇聚了两位出色的创业者，他们正在跨越整个技术栈进行建设，来谈谈实现这一切究竟需要什么。 Please join me in welcoming co-founder and CEO of Mariana minerals, Turner Caldwell, and founder and CEO of Heron Power, Drew Baglino. 请大家欢迎 Mariana Minerals 的联合创始人兼 CEO Turner Caldwell，以及 Heron Power 的创始人兼 CEO Drew Baglino。 We'll spend a lot more time in this room today talking about AI, but the constraint on America's AI future, and as I mentioned, I think re-industrialization more broadly is in many ways atoms and not algorithms. 今天在这个房间里我们会花大量时间讨论 AI，但美国 AI 未来的瓶颈，以及我提到的更广泛的再工业化，在很多方面是原子而不是算法的问题。 So, you know, you two are both building fundamental pieces of this physical infrastructure for the that the future AI economy can't live without. 你们两位都在建设实体基础设施的基础模块，这些是未来 AI 经济不可或缺的东西。 So, maybe just for the audience to get started, why don't you briefly explain what you both build and and why these physical industries matter. 先简单介绍一下，你们各自在做什么，这些实体产业为什么重要？ Uh yeah, so Mariana minerals is a software first minerals mining and refining company. Mariana Minerals 是一家软件优先的矿产采矿和冶炼公司。 Um when I say software first, what that means is that about a quarter of the company is software engineers, machine learning engineers that are developing three core operating systems to accelerate project delivery and increase the amount of autonomy that we see in minerals operations and and in refining operations. 所谓软件优先，是指公司大约四分之一的团队是软件工程师和机器学习工程师，他们在开发三个核心操作系统，用来加速项目交付、提升矿产运营和冶炼运营的自主化程度。 Capital project OS is basically a product life cycle management tool is the way to think about it, but that goes from process development, mine development all the way through engineering, construction, and procurement and doing agentic workflow automation kind of through that stack. Capital Project OS 本质上是一个产品生命周期管理工具，覆盖从工艺开发、矿山开发，到工程、建设和采购的全流程，并在整个技术栈中实现 agentic 工作流自动化。 Plant OS is how we use reinforcement learning to control refineries Plant OS 是我们用强化学习控制精炼厂的方式。 Uh mine OS is again how we use reinforcement learning to control do short interval autonomous control of mining operations. Mine OS 则是用强化学习对采矿作业实施短周期自主控制。 Um but we do not sell software. 但我们不卖软件。 We are not a SaaS company. 我们不是 SaaS 公司。 Uh we develop uh we we engineer, build, and operate minerals projects. 我们工程、建设并运营矿产项目。 And so we have a copper mine that's operating in Southeast Utah that's producing high-grade copper materials today uh high-purity copper materials today. 我们在犹他州东南部有一座铜矿正在运营，目前在产出高品质铜材料。 Uh we're building a lithium refinery in Texas with the goal of building 10 projects in the next 10 years. 我们在得克萨斯州建设一座锂精炼厂，目标是在未来 10 年内建成 10 个项目。 How about you, Drew? Drew，你呢？ Yeah. 好的。 So uh first, thank you for having me today here representing the Heron Power team. 首先感谢你今天邀请我，代表 Heron Power 团队来到这里。 So at Heron Power, we build um power electronics to accelerate the electricity sector. 在 Heron Power，我们做电力电子产品，目标是加速电力行业的发展。 Um over the last four decades, you know, in parallel with the uh Moore's Law improvement of transistors and compute, there's been a similar improvement in power transistors. 过去四十年，在摩尔定律推动晶体管和计算性能提升的同时，功率晶体管也有了类似的进步。 Uh and over those decades, it's enabled uh more and more applications. 这几十年的进步带来了越来越多的应用。 You know, we see them in our how we charge our phones, in telecommunications, uh in data centers. 我们在手机充电、通信、数据中心里都能看到它的身影。 Uh but really that that improvement hasn't been brought to the grid itself. 但这些进步真正还没有被带进电网本身。 And in a time of growing demand uh for electricity for so many different reasons, all of them positive, and the fact that electricity growth and energy growth is correlated with economic growth and prosperity, uh we need new solutions. 在电力需求不断增长的背景下，增长的原因是多方面的，都是正面的，电力增长和能源增长与经济增长和繁荣正相关，我们需要新的解决方案。 And luckily, the power semiconductor space is uh is ready to bring those solutions. 幸运的是，功率半导体领域已经准备好提供这些解决方案了。 And I'm excited to do that. 这正是我期待做的。 At Heron Power, we're focused on uh building solid-state transformers to use silicon and software to replace steel, oil, and copper in power conversion at data centers, uh large-scale energy installations like solar and battery projects, and others. 在 Heron Power，我们专注于建造固态变压器，用硅和软件取代数据中心、太阳能和储能等大型能源装置中功率转换所需的钢铁、油和铜。 Amazing. 太好了。 Um so the US government has made it a pretty clear and loud priority to reshore critical supply chains from critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and you know, there's also been a lot of focus in the AI race against China. 美国政府已经明确且高调地把关键供应链回流，从关键矿产到先进制造，列为优先任务，同时在与中国的 AI 竞争中也有大量关注。 Um so maybe in plain terms, where does it leave us if American companies like yours don't exist and win? 用直白的话说，如果没有你们这样的美国公司存在并取得成功，会怎样？ Um yeah, I can take that first. 我先来回答这个问题。 Um well, this power semiconductor capability that is enabling solid-state transformers actually is the outgrowth of uh many decades of partnership between the federal government and uh academia and industry. 这种支撑固态变压器的功率半导体能力，实际上是联邦政府、学术界和产业界数十年合作的产物。 Um both the DOE and the Navy have focused a lot on advanced semiconductors. DOE 和海军在先进半导体方面投入了大量资源。 Um so, it just makes sense that the place where, you know, this technology was first developed should be the place where it all the benefits are commercialized. 所以很自然，这项技术最初诞生的地方，理应是将其所有商业价值最先兑现的地方。 Um the world's leading uh producer of silicon carbide, which is a key power semiconductor, is is based, you know, here in the US. 全球领先的碳化硅 silicon carbide 生产商，也就是一种关键功率半导体，就在美国本土。 Um and so, we should be, you know, leveraging the applications of that technology here first, manufacturing here at home. 所以我们应该首先在这里把这项技术的应用落地，在本地制造。 And if we don't, we're basically losing the all the benefits that accrue from that technology to other other company other countries. 如果我们不这样做，就等于把这项技术带来的所有收益拱手相让给其他国家。 I don't think we should do that. 我认为我们不应该这样做。 Yeah, I think put plainly, um you know, the US is 50 years behind on critical mineral supply. 简单说，美国在关键矿产供应方面落后了 50 年。 Uh and so, if we're not innovating in the critical mineral space, we will be perpetually behind. 如果我们不在关键矿产领域创新，就会永远处于落后状态。 And the things that China does right now to accelerate uh 而中国目前用来加速的那些做法 And when you say behind, do you mean specifically behind China? 你说的落后，特指落后于中国吗？ Uh specifically behind China. 特指落后于中国。 But I would say also globally we have a couple of decades of flag. 但我也要说，从全球来看，我们也落后了几十年。 Um the the the things that we can do at the top level are uh accelerate permitting, we can make uh project level finance more available. 在顶层能做的事包括：加快许可审批，提供更多项目级融资。 But that doesn't actually solve the underlying problem, which is that we are too slow at designing, building, and ramping up new minerals capacity, even after we have license to operate. 但这并没有真正解决根本问题，我们在设计、建设和提升新矿产产能方面太慢了，哪怕已经拿到了运营许可。 And so, Mariana's laser focused on that phase of project development, which is you have to get things permitted, yes, but once you start building, it can take 5 years to get something built, and then it can take three or three to five years to get something actually operating at rate. 所以 Mariana 聚焦的正是项目开发的这个阶段，许可是必须拿的，但一旦开始建设，往往要花 5 年才能建完，再花三到五年才能真正达产运营。 Uh and that's why we're laser focused on that, so that even if we kind of start to lower the burdens to play catch up with China, we actually have to go faster than China does. 这就是我们聚焦于此的原因，就算我们开始减轻负担追赶中国，我们实际上必须跑得比中国还快。 Yeah. 对。 Yeah. 对。 Um you know, both of you spent a long time at Tesla. 你们两个在 Tesla 都待了很长时间。 Drew, you spent 18 years at Tesla. Drew，你在 Tesla 待了 18 年。 You're like something of a deity among power electronics nerds, I would say. 在功率电子极客圈里，你差不多是个神一样的存在。 And now you work on grid scale power systems, which is which is different. 而现在你在做电网规模的电力系统，这是不一样的领域。 Um so, when you looked at the grid, what convinced you to leave Tesla and tackle this problem this I I think seemingly unsexy unsexy problem in in this way. 那么当你看向电网的时候，是什么让你决定离开 Tesla、去啃这个，我觉得表面看起来不那么性感的问题？ Um and and maybe I'll adding on to that, what does it actually take in terms of time, cost, regulatory hurdles to to do this in the US? 另外，在美国做这件事，实际上需要多少时间、成本，面临哪些监管障碍？ Big question there. 问题不小。 Two questions. 两个问题。 I 我 Um well, I was I had a front row seat to an amazing set of impactful innovations at the grid's edge, right? 我在电网边缘那些有巨大影响力的创新中有近距离的观察席位，对吧？ EVs becoming more affordable, you know, not just more affordable but more omnipresent around us, uh building the supercharging infrastructure uh to support those electric vehicles, and then working on grid storage. EV 越来越亲民，不只是更便宜，而是随处可见；同时还在建设超级充电网络来支撑这些电动车，以及 Megapack 和电网储能业务。 I was responsible for, you know, the Megapack and scaling the energy business at Tesla. Megapack 和 Tesla 能源业务的规模化，是我负责的。 Um and all along the way what what I saw was even though there's so much innovation happening at the edge of the grid, on the other side of the wire, there's really been no change. 而在这整个过程中我看到的是：电网边缘的创新那么多，但在电线的另一侧，也就是电网本身，几乎没有任何改变。 You know, the the systems underpinning the grid today are the same largely mechanical systems that were developed over 100 years ago. 今天支撑电网运行的系统，基本上还是 100 多年前开发的那套机械系统。 And you don't get control, you don't get monitoring, um you end up with an overbuilt system that is fragile. 没有控制，没有监测，最终得到的是一个臃肿且脆弱的系统。 Uh and also, there's not a lot of suppliers providing that equipment, and most of them are actually headquartered overseas, and that just doesn't seem like a a secure position for such critical infrastructure for us to have here in the United States. 而且提供这些设备的供应商也不多，大多数实际上总部在海外，这对于如此关键的基础设施来说，不像是一个安全的处境。 Um what does it take to get things done here? 要在美国把事情做成，需要什么？ Um I think you can. 我觉得是可以的。 I mean, I I built the megafactory uh with my team, and you know, my team was super awesome. 我的意思是，我和我的团队建了那个 Megafactory，我的团队非常强。 Uh, in Hello. 在 Lathrop， In Lathrop, California, uh, in 11 months. 在 Lathrop，加利福尼亚州，11 个月内完成。 It was a JCPenney warehouse 11 months later, the first product came off the line. 那里原来是一个 JCPenney 仓库，11 个月后第一件产品下线。 Um, but ultimately what it comes down to is alignment. 但最终关键在于协调一致。 You know, when you're working with your local jurisdiction, they can use the process for a code compliant project to say no at every step, or they can say yes at every step. 当你和当地政府打交道的时候，他们可以用每一个合规流程节点来说不，也可以在每一个节点说是。 And so how do we as a collective, you know, gain alignment that building, reindustrializing the US, building critical infrastructure, and supporting our critical supply chains here in the US is a good thing. 所以我们作为一个整体，如何达成共识，建设美国、推进再工业化、建设关键基础设施、维护本土关键供应链，是一件好事。