Goldman Sachs 主席谈 AI 与金融的未来 | The a16z Show

anybody who's investing, you know, you're doing two things. 任何在投资的人，你知道，其实都在同时做两件事。 You're trying to make money for yourselves and your clients, and so you're trying to get out there and take risk, and you're also trying to be a risk manager, and you have to do both. 你既要为自己和客户赚钱，要出去冒险，又要做风险管理，两件事都得做。 I think it was your quote there. 我觉得那是你说的那句话。 It's like, if you're so good at predicting the future, tell me what's going to happen next. 就是说，如果你真的擅长预测未来，告诉我接下来会发生什么。 Once the present turns into the past, everybody's a genius. 等现在变成过去，人人都是事后诸葛亮。 Most of what we do with respect to risk is not so much predicting, it's a lot of contingency planning. 我们在风险管理上做的，大部分不是预测，而是大量的应急预案规划。 We are on the precipice of some of the largest IPOs ever. 我们正站在有史以来规模最大的几个 IPO 的临界点上。 What are risks that you think are underappreciated? 你觉得哪些风险是被大家低估的？ Before this technological age, not just AI, but in general, could you have had a mistake that could cost billions of dollars? 在这个科技时代之前，不只是 AI，泛泛而言，有可能出现一个损失达数十亿美元的错误吗？ Um, not really. 呃，不太可能。 But now you can leave a a piece of software could go out and do 70,000 transactions. 但现在可以了，一段软件出去能执行 70,000 笔交易。 The leverage in these things is themselves a problem. 这些东西里的杠杆本身就是个问题。 Not because it's smarter than us and it's going to turn us into pets, but because we don't have the ability to test whether it's right or not. 不是因为它比我们聪明、要把我们变成宠物，而是因为我们没有能力验证它是否正确。 Your tweet, by the way, about the White House Correspondent Center was amazing. 顺便说一下，你那条关于白宫记者晚宴的推特太精彩了。 Uh, I think for for the good of like the timeline, we need you back on on Twitter more often. 呃，我觉得为了整个时间线的健康，我们需要你在 Twitter 上更活跃一些。 I know. 我知道。 You know what it's a funny thing is I 你知道吗，有件事挺有趣的，我 You would think that um you see something and you're activated to tweet about it. 你会以为，你看到什么事就会忍不住发推。 It me I said,"Oh, gee, I haven't tweeted for a long time. 而我却是，我说，哦天哪，我好久没发推了。 Let me find something to tweet about." 让我找点什么东西发发。 That's more and also being in the risk management business 这更多也是因为做风险管理这行 I always know that everybody keeps doing that and eventually you get cancelled because you do you know you do something you step over some invisible line that you you know that nobody knew about and so I realized that from a riskreward point of view it's all ego and no no real value other than that but that was saying you know when you retired you your grasp its draws 我清楚地知道每个人都这样做，最终总会被取消，因为你会，你知道，做了某件事，跨过某条没人知道的隐形红线，所以从风险回报的角度来看，这完全是自我满足，没有任何真正的价值，但这就是说，你知道，当你退休时，你对它的执念 why not 为什么不呢 I mean it was like 10 million views later or something 我的意思是，后来大概有 1000 万次阅读之类的 I mean it was like 10 million views later or something I went to 我的意思是，后来大概有 1000 万次阅读之类的，我当时 I remember when I was um doing it 我记得当时我在做那件事 what's his name from 那个叫什么名字的人来着 uh 呃 You know, I got this 你知道，我弄到了这个 I said to you know when I retired 我对自己说，你知道当我退休时 no unrestrained 不再受约束 uh no I I am 不，我不是 I am freed from the restraints that I had because I started you know I did this at Goldman 我从那些束缚中解脱了，因为我知道，我在 Goldman 的时候就开始了 and I realized that I was um you know playing a dangerous game because I was being snarky with the president and I had all those back and forths totally 我意识到我在玩一个危险游戏，因为我在嘲讽总统，和他们来来回回完全 with um Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. 和 Sanders 还有 Elizabeth Warren。 The the other thing I was curious to ask you, you know, you're obviously like famous for being come under pressure and a risk a risk manager, but it was reported that you you know what like during the active shooter, like you lean over to the person next to you, you're like, you're going to you're going to finish that that salad. 还有一件事我很好奇，你知道，你显然以在压力下保持冷静和做风险管理著称，但据报道，在那次疑似枪击事件中，你侧身对旁边的人说，你说，你要把那盘沙拉吃完吗？ Is that was that a real 那是真实发生的吗 No, that was 不，那是 Yeah, that was real. 对，那是真的。 But I but it wasn't, you know, it wasn't like I was 但我，但这不是说，你知道，不是那种 I was hungry. 我当时很饿。 I 我 So every you know, I always used in in moments of crisis like that, I always tried to be disarming. 所以，你知道，每次遇到这样的危机时刻，我总会努力表现得轻松一些。 Sure. 对。 And you know, everybody was and and by the way, it was very sensible to duck down under the desk. 你知道，大家都这样，而且说实话，那种情况下趴到桌子下面是非常明智的。 I mean, it was a line, you know, realized we were pretty close up and I was just it wasn't it wasn't that thoughtful on my part. 我的意思是，站台很近，我们意识到我们距离很近，我只是，这不是说我有多深思熟虑。 It was just that I was like it was like it was like being in a movie and I was like enjoying watching it. 只是感觉就像在电影里一样，我就像在欣赏着这一切。 Totally. 完全理解。 And you had all these um guys who were wearing tuxedos. 而且当时那些穿着燕尾服的人， Suddenly they had little, you know, they had uh they had pistols in their hand and there were guys in full tactically and they all ran in and they all s you know they all were on the stage with with their guns facing outward of course because that's where the threat would have come from. 突然间，你知道，他们手里都有手枪，还有穿着全副战术装备的人，他们全冲进来，全都上了台，枪口朝外，当然，因为威胁会从那个方向来。 Then I you know suddenly you know guy tugs at my you know leg and he said you know you really should get down. 然后，你知道，突然有个人扯了我的腿，说，你知道，你真的应该趴下来。 And I said you're really right. 我说，你说得很对。 I said you know this is like like when I get into an airplane this is one this is another time that I'm glad I'm short. 我说，你知道，就像我登飞机一样，这又是一次让我庆幸自己个子不高的时刻。 Um, but I was uh watching it and then and then I saw what everybody was doing and know I didn't see a lot of panic. 呃，我当时在看着这一切，然后我看了看周围，你知道，我没有看到太多恐慌。 I didn't see any panic really the people under this which was a sensible thing to do. 我真的没有看到任何恐慌，躲在下面的那些人，这是很明智的做法。 Yeah. 对。 But again to break the moment I looked down and they said by the way are you going to finish your uh are you going to finish your are you going to finish your salad? 但为了打破当时的气氛，我低头看了看，顺便问道，你要把这盘，你要把这盘，你要把这盘沙拉吃完吗？ And as I said it was, you know, it was kind of a you know it was kind of funny at the time. 正如我说的，你知道，这在当时还挺好笑的。 Ice in the veins you know I don't know. 神经够冷静，你知道，我也不确定。 Well, were were you always even killed like as a as a kid or 那你一直都这样吗，就连小时候也是这样，还是 Yes, I was. 是的，是这样。 You know, in somebody said go Gleman, you know, you're very good in a crisis and uh and and and that's why you go out of your way to create them. 你知道，有人说，Lloyd，你在危机中表现得非常好，这就是为什么你会不遗余力地去制造危机。 So, just so you can give you an opportunity to be good in a crisis. 这样你才能有机会在危机中表现出色。 And I would say that my normal resting um you know, my resting state is to not be resting. 我会说，我平时的那个，你知道，我的休息状态就是不休息。 So, I tend to be a little bit wound all the time, but I don't get especially wound. 所以，我一直有点紧绷，但不会特别紧绷。 In fact, things slow down for me. 事实上，事情对我来说会慢下来。 I'm used to seeing things uh like that. 我习惯于看到那样的场景。 They're in slow motion, and I become very sensitive to what the people around me are thinking and trying to, you know, get them uh most of the time like at Goldman and and in most most of life in a crisis time, the really important thing is just to get people to do their jobs and to stop being, you know, stop, you know, don't be frozen and don't be uh don't submit to the chaos. 它们在我眼里是慢镜头，我对周围人的想法变得非常敏感，尽力去，你知道，带领他们，大多数时候，比如在 Goldman 或者生活中的大多数危机时刻，真正重要的是让大家做好本职工作，不要，你知道，不要僵住，不要屈服于混乱。 Do you think that was like a nate or was there something from your childhood that sort of like helped kind of breed that temperament? 你觉得这是天生的，还是成长经历中有什么塑造了这种性格？ I don't know. 我不知道。 I wouldn't have predicted that about myself, but I've now gone through, you know, we, you know, going, we had the crisis of the century roughly every four or five years. 我以前不会这么评价自己，但经历了这么多，你知道，我们，大概每四五年就会经历一场世纪危机。 Um, and it's always that way. 呃，一直都是这样。 But, by the way, it doesn't mean I like crises and I wouldn't go out of my way to volunteer to be in one. 但说实话，这不代表我喜欢危机，也不代表我会主动去寻找危机。 It's just that when it happens, I I I generally have confidence that I'm not going to get dis that I'm not trying to tempt the fates. 只是当危机发生时，我通常有信心，我不会，我不是在挑战命运。 If I'm going to get discombobulated, everyone is going to get discombobulated before me. 如果我要被打乱节奏，那所有人都会比我先乱掉。 That's how I that's how, you know, and so I I've done that. 这就是我，你知道，所以我一直是这样过来的。 And by the way, that that taught me a lot about, you know, the people that you need to rely on because you can't really tell, 顺便说一下，这让我对于你需要依靠的人有了很多了解，因为你真的看不出来， you know, I mean, not to coin a phrase, but you can't tell a book by its color. 你知道，我不是想创造什么名言，但你不能以貌取人。 And I, you know, I went through and, you know, maybe this is out of sequence, but I went through the financial crisis and we had, you know, we had people, you know, and thinking one in particular who was great athlete, terrific guy, real man's man, you know, 而且，你知道，我经历过，也许这说的顺序有点乱，但我经历了那场金融危机，我们有，你知道，我们有人，想到了其中一个人，他是个很好的运动员，很棒的人，真正的硬汉， did rodeos on the weekend and 周末去参加牛仔竞技表演 and he was, you know, terrible. 他，你知道，表现得很糟糕。 Yep. 是的。 And you know and then here I am the co co-president of the firm you know here 然后你知道，这里是我，公司的联合主席，你知道 I am trying to teach people how to me and you know trying to say you know you have to breathe and then there were people who didn't look like they could walk up a whole flight of stairs 我试图教大家怎么，你知道，试图告诉大家，你需要呼吸，然后有些人看起来走一整段楼梯都困难 and they were you know really good and so you know just people you know you just don't know 他们，你知道，表现得非常好，所以，你知道，人这个东西，你就是看不出来 and that's why 这就是为什么 I mean my advice uh you know when you when you pick board members 我的意思是，我的建议，呃，当你选择董事会成员的时候 yep 对 and by this is a very I'm turning something that's generic into a very narrow things. 而且这是个很，我正在把一件通用的事情变成一件非常具体的事。 I I think a good place to go is find people who've already gone through a crisis because to me, people who look like and sound like 我觉得一个好的方向是找那些已经经历过危机的人，因为在我看来，那些看起来和听起来 they'll get through it. 能扛过去的人， It's not really uh 这未必 I'm not sure how much of a correlation there is to the to the to the reality of it, but when somebody's gone through a crisis, I think that's your best bet. 我不确定这和现实的相关性有多强，但如果一个人经历过危机，我认为那是你最好的选择。 Totally. 完全同意。 Well, I I definitely want to spend some time on on the financial crisis. 嗯，我确实很想聊聊那场金融危机。 Obviously, was uh such a defining kind of period. 显然，那是一段极具决定性意义的时期。 Um but maybe to go backwards sometime obviously you um 但也许可以先往前倒一倒，你显然 you know, you had a very modest upbringing. 你知道，你的成长背景很普通。 Um, you know, I was curious like, you know, uh, what role did like living near New York City or Manhattan maybe more specifically play in sort of like creating ambition or or for me, you know, I didn't grow up in the projects, but I grew up very modestly as well. 呃，我很好奇，你知道，住在纽约市附近，或者更具体地说是曼哈顿，对于培养你的抱负起到了什么样的作用，对我来说，我虽然不是在贫民区长大的，但我的成长环境也很朴素。 And where'd you grow up? 你是在哪里长大的？