AI 悖论：自动化越多，人的工作反而越多 | Dan Shipper

The last time you were on this podcast, you had this hot take that people were sleeping on Claude Code. 上次你来这个播客，你有个强烈的观点，说人们都忽视了 Claude Code 的价值。 You were so unbelievably right. 你说对了，而且是大错特错地对了。 The premise of this episode is we're going to go through what else you predict will happen. 这期节目的主题是，我们要聊聊你还预测到了什么。 The AI job apocalypse is not really a thing. AI 导致的大规模失业潮，其实并不会发生。 I am super super bullish on PMs and full-stack designers. 我超级看好 PM 和全栈设计师。 So, you guys are hiring doubled in people in the past year, which is not what people would have expected from a company that is so AI forward. 所以你们公司去年员工人数翻了一倍，这不是人们对一家如此 AI 驱动的公司所期待的。 I'm simultaneously extremely AI pilled and [music] very bullish on humans. 我同时极度信仰 AI，[音乐] 也非常看好人类。 Automation is a lie. 自动化是个谎言。 Every agent needs a human. 每个智能体都需要人类。 We have so much automation, so much AI, and I also work way more. 我们有大量的自动化，大量的 AI，但我也工作得更多了。 Creativity. 创造力。 It just feels like it's going to be more and more valuable to stand out from all the slop that people are shipping and launching constantly. 感觉在人们不断推出的大量 slop（垃圾内容）中脱颖而出，将变得越来越有价值。 What models do in general is they make yesterday's human competence cheap. 模型总体上做的事情，是把昨天的人类能力变得廉价。 And so, it becomes commoditized. 然后这些能力就被商品化了。 It's not valuable anymore. 它不再有价值了。 What humans do is we go in there and we're like,"Yeah, we have all this frozen human competence from yesterday. 人类的做法是走进去，说："对，我们有这些来自昨天的固化人类能力。 How do I use this like make something new and interesting?" 我怎么利用这些来做出新的、有趣的东西？" What are some predictions for how the way we work is going to change? 你对我们的工作方式将如何改变有哪些预测？ It's going to bifurcate in two main ways. 会朝两个主要方向分化。 One is everyone's going to have at least one agent that they talk to, that they can offload work to. 一是每个人都至少会有一个智能体可以交谈，可以把工作委托给它。 Second is that most of the work that you do [music] is actually going to happen on your computer in an environment like Codex or Claude Co-work. 二是你做的大部分工作 [音乐] 实际上将在你的电脑上、在类似 Codex 或 Claude Code 这样的环境中完成。 What you're predicting here is the SaaS tools will run within Codex or Claude Code. 你的预测是，SaaS 工具将在 Codex 或 Claude Code 内部运行。 I think the SaaS apocalypse is dumb. 我觉得所谓"SaaS 末日论"很蠢。 I would buy SaaS stocks right now. 我现在就会去买 SaaS 股票。 What agents do is increase the number of users of SaaS, not get rid of it. 智能体的作用是增加 SaaS 的用户数量，而不是消灭它。 A lot of people are moving to CLI and trying to work from the terminal. 很多人正在转向 CLI，尝试从终端工作。 [music] [音乐] We speed ran the CLI era. 我们跑完了 CLI 时代的快进键。 It was nice while it lasted, but I think CLIs are over. 它的时光虽好，但我认为 CLI 的时代已经过去了。 Today my guest is Dan Shipper, CEO and founder of Every. 今天我的嘉宾是 Dan Shipper，Every 的 CEO 兼创始人。 Dan and his team are building maybe the most AI forward startup out there. Dan 和他的团队正在打造也许是目前最 AI 优先的初创公司。 And as a result, are very much living in the future of how work is going to look as AI becomes a bigger and bigger part of our day-to-day. 因此，他们非常真实地活在未来之中，那个随着 AI 在日常生活中占据越来越重要位置、工作将会呈现的样子。 Everybody at their company, including every non-technical person, uses Codex and Co-work and Claude Code to get much of their work done. 公司里的每个人，包括每一位非技术人员，都在用 Codex、Co-work 和 Claude Code 来完成大量工作。 And this is why, way before [music] anybody else, Dan saw the rise of Claude Code and what is now Cohere, which he predicted almost a year ago when he was on the podcast last [music] time. 正因如此，比其他任何人都早得多 [音乐]，Dan 就看到了 Claude Code 的崛起，以及现在的 Cohere，几乎是他一年前上播客时就预测到的 [音乐]。 So, I asked Dan to come back on the podcast to share his current biggest predictions for how work is [music] going to change over the coming year for most people. 于是我邀请 Dan 回到播客，分享他目前对工作方式将如何在未来一年为大多数人改变的最大预测 [音乐]。 We chatted about what work will look like at most companies at the end of this year, how the shape of the work we do will change, and who will do best in this coming future{slash} what you need to be working [music] on right now. 我们聊了今年年底大多数公司的工作会是什么样子，我们所做工作的形态将如何改变，以及谁在这个即将到来的未来中会表现最好 [音乐]，以及你现在应该在做什么。 Hint hint, product managers and designers are going to do very well. 剧透一下，产品经理和设计师将会做得非常好。 Dan makes a lot of bold predictions and many quite contrarian takes that I was not [music] expecting him to say, and we are going to revisit this conversation exactly a year from today to see how much he got right. Dan 提出了很多大胆预测和许多相当逆势的观点，这些观点我都没有预料到 [音乐]，我们将在今天起整整一年后回顾这次对话，看看他猜对了多少。 Before we get into it, do not forget [music] to check out Lenny's Product Hunt dot com for a free year of the hottest and most well-crafted AI products in the world available exclusively to Lenny's newsletter subscribers. 在正式开始之前，别忘了 [音乐] 去 Lenny's Product Hunt dot com 查看，那里有全球最热门、制作最精良的 AI 产品，免费供 Lenny 通讯订阅者使用整整一年。 With that, I bring you Dan 话不多说，请欢迎 Dan [music] [音乐] Dan, thank you so much for being here and welcome back to the podcast. Dan，非常感谢你来这里，欢迎再次回到播客。 Thanks for having me. 谢谢邀请。 Always a pleasure to be with you. 每次和你交流都是一种享受。 The last time you were on this podcast, you had this kind of it was almost like an offhand hot take that people were sleeping on cloud code and in particular cloud code for non-engineering work, for just like fixing files, sorting your hard drive, just all these things that people hadn't thought about. 上次你来这个播客，你有一个几乎是随口说出的强烈观点，说人们都忽视了 Claude Code，尤其是 Claude Code 在非工程工作中的应用，比如修改文件、整理硬盘，那些人们根本没有想到的事情。 Nobody was talking about this. 当时没有人在谈论这个。 This was a year ago. 那是一年前的事了。 You were so unbelievably right about this. 你对此简直是惊人地正确。 It's just like unreal what has happened since then. 自那以后发生的事情，真是令人难以置信。 They built Cohere, which was this whole 他们建立了 Cohere，这整个 They built on this very specific idea using Claude Code for non-technical work. 他们正是基于这个非常具体的想法，把 Claude Code 用于非技术性工作。 A Codex is getting into this now. Codex 现在也在进入这个领域了。 I imagine you've been seeing this. 我猜你也看到了这些。 They're like leaning into this non-technical use of basically coding agents. 他们正在大力拥抱这种基本上就是编码智能体的非技术应用。 I feel like this has also been a big part of Anthropic's success over the past year, just like how do non-technical people use this stuff? 我感觉这也是过去一年 Anthropic 成功的重要原因之一，就是非技术人员怎么用这些工具？ Uh so, you were just so go on this stuff. 呃，所以你在这方面简直。 I I I even wrote a newsletter post building on this idea. 我甚至写了一篇通讯文章来拓展这个想法。 I'm like,"Hey, this is you interesting. 我说："嘿，这很有意思。 I should dig into this." 我应该深入研究一下。" I asked people,"How do you use cloud code for non-engineering work?" 我问大家："你是怎么把 Claude Code 用于非工程工作的？" And I just had like so many examples and it's like my second most popular post. 结果涌来了太多例子，那篇文章成了我的第二受欢迎的文章。 So, uh clearly you uh you you have a unique glimpse into where things are heading. 所以，你显然对事情的走向有一种独到的洞察。 So, the premise of this episode is we're going to go through uh what else you predict will happen in the future, how things will change for people building products. 所以这期节目的主题是，我们要聊聊你对未来还有哪些预测，以及对做产品的人来说，事情会如何变化。 And I think it'd be helpful to start with giving people a brief glimpse into just how you operate and how your team operates that gives you this unique lens into where things are going. 我认为先让大家简单了解一下你的工作方式以及你团队的工作方式会很有帮助，这正是给你带来这种独特视角的东西。 So, just give us a sense of how you how you work. 所以，给我们说说你是怎么工作的。 Thank you. 谢谢。 Um I I really appreciate the introduction. 嗯，我真的很感谢这个介绍。 Um and yeah, I think what one of the things about predicting the future or or the way that we think about predicting the future at 嗯，是的，我认为关于预测未来，或者说我们在 Every 思考预测未来的方式 Every is that you what you don't want to do is prognosticate. Every 里，你不想做的事是进行空洞的预言。 What do you What you want to do instead um is just live in it together. 你想做的，是和大家一起活在其中。 So, everybody at Every is an AI early adopter. 所以，Every 的每个人都是 AI 早期采用者。 We're almost 30 people now. 我们现在接近 30 人了。 I think when when we did our interview we were 15, so we've doubled in size in the in the last year. 我想我们做访谈的时候是 15 人，所以在过去一年里我们规模翻了一倍。 We're all early adopters and we have engineers, we have designers, we have writers, we have editors, we have um sales people, we have customer service 我们都是早期采用者，有工程师、设计师、作者、编辑，还有销售人员、客服 And everybody has a little bit of that um whatever that thing is where you're just like, 而且每个人都有一点那种……不管那是什么，就是那种你会说： "Oh, I like to explore. "哦，我喜欢探索。 I like to experiment. 我喜欢实验。 I'm very curious and I'm like super all in on AI." 我非常好奇，而且我对 AI 是百分百全力投入。" And what I what that does, I think, is it creates this like little pocket of the future where we're all living in it together and we get to be a little bit further ahead cuz at any other company there's like a mix of people. 我认为这样做会产生一种效果，就是创造出一个小小的未来缩影，我们所有人都在其中共同生活，因此可以比别人超前一点点，因为在其他任何公司，都是各种人混在一起的。 There's early adopters, there's like there's sort of like the middle of the pack people and there's people who are that like very anti. 有早期采用者，有处于中间位置的人，还有非常抵制的人。 And another thing that happens, which is really cool, is we get to because of our role um you know, reviewing models and and being a little bit of a tastemaker in AI, we get access to stuff before it comes out. 还有另一件发生的事，非常酷，就是因为我们的角色，你知道，评测模型、在 AI 领域做一点口味引领者的工作，我们可以在产品发布前就接触到它们。 So, we get to beta test and alpha test and kind of help help steer the direction of where things are going a little bit, which is very, very cool. 所以我们可以做 beta 测试和 alpha 测试，某种程度上可以帮助引导事情的走向，这非常非常酷。 And so, when when I think about predicting the future, um it's actually when you create an environment like that, it's actually just about um noticing what's going on. 所以当我想到预测未来的时候，实际上当你创造出那样的环境，它其实就是关于注意到正在发生的事情。 Um and and I think what a core part of it, too, is writing about it. 嗯，我也认为其中一个核心部分是写作。 I think articulating what you're noticing, articulating the future, kind of brings it about in this way that um uh makes it real for you and your team and then anybody else who's like on the internet who's reading it. 我认为把你注意到的东西用语言表达出来，把未来用语言表达出来，会以某种方式把它变得真实，对你、对你的团队，然后对那些在网上阅读它的人。 And so, the Claude Code thing, it was this is this very organic thing where for us, um we tried Claude Code when it came out. 所以 Claude Code 那件事，对我们来说是一件非常有机自然的事情，当它发布的时候我们就试用了。 That's sort of our job. 那基本上是我们的工作。 We we we try all the new stuff from all the new all the new model all we tried all the new stuff from the model companies. 我们会试用所有模型公司的所有新东西。 And at the time it was like a little bit early. 当时还有点早。 But right around, I think like Sonnet 3.5 or Sonnet 3.7, we were testing that to do our vibe check on it. 但大概在 Sonnet 3.5 或 Sonnet 3.7 左右，我们正在测试它，做我们的直觉检验。 And we're like,"Holy 然后我们都说："我的老天 [ __ ] [脏话] This is crazy. 这太疯狂了。 This is like really You can 这真的，你可以 They got rid of the code editor." 他们把代码编辑器干掉了。" And so, from that point on, we just basically we we run At this point now we run like six products software products internally. 从那时起，我们基本上，我们在这个时候运行大概六个软件产品，那时候可能是两三个。 At that time we ran like maybe two or three. 那时候我们大概运营了两三个。 And from that point on, we just started shifting to a a world where everybody was 从那时起，我们就开始转向一个世界，在那个世界里，每个人都 No one was looking at the code. 没有人再看代码了。 Everybody was you know, talking to their computer in English using Claude Code in the terminal. 每个人都在用英语通过终端里的 Claude Code 跟自己的电脑对话。