Pax Silica: Por Dentro da Estratégia Tecnológica da Administração Trump com Jacob Helberg

we're not going to do government operated supply chains because that's not how we shine as a country. não vamos criar cadeias de suprimentos operadas pelo governo, porque não é assim que o nosso país brilha. Our superpower is really our private sector and our companies. Nosso superpoder é realmente nosso setor privado e nossas empresas. The old Steve Jobs quote that American products enchant and delight users around the world by the billions. A famosa frase de Steve Jobs de que os produtos americanos encantam e deliciam usuários ao redor do mundo aos bilhões. That is really is our edge as a country. Essa é realmente a nossa vantagem como país. And so the answer's been trying to work in lockstep with our private companies and our builders to build platforms E então a resposta tem sido trabalhar em sintonia com nossas empresas privadas e nossos construtores para criar plataformas [music] [music] that are commercially viable and that will can ultimately live outside of the government as a private service. que sejam comercialmente viáveis e que possam, em última instância, existir fora do governo como um serviço privado. The General Purpose are joined by Jacob Helberg, the Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs. O General Purpose recebe Jacob Helberg, o Subsecretário de Estado para Assuntos Econômicos. We spoke with Jacob before he was confirmed in this role and we're very excited to have him back to discuss Pax Silica, which is a multi-nation effort to secure the AI supply chain for the United States and its allies. Conversamos com Jacob antes de ele ser confirmado neste cargo e estamos muito empolgados em tê-lo de volta para falar sobre o Pax Silica, que é um esforço multinacional para proteger a cadeia de suprimentos de IA para os Estados Unidos e seus aliados. Jacob, thanks so much for being here. Jacob, muito obrigada por estar aqui. Yeah, thanks for joining us. Sim, obrigado por se juntar a nós. Thanks for having me. Obrigado pelo convite. So, let's get right into it. Então, vamos direto ao ponto. Three months ago you announced Pax Silica, super ambitious coalition. Três meses atrás você anunciou o Pax Silica, uma coalizão super ambiciosa. Can you explain what it is and where you are in it? Você pode explicar o que é e em que estágio está? Yeah, absolutely. Sim, com certeza. So, I gave a speech at the Hudson Institute that was really meant to be our blueprint for Pax Silica. Então, eu dei um discurso no Hudson Institute que era realmente para ser o nosso blueprint para o Pax Silica. Pax Silica is an economic security coalition that now has 14 countries and the idea is really to have an ecosystems based approach to our supply chains and specifically the AI supply chain. Pax Silica é uma coalizão de segurança econômica que agora tem 14 países e a ideia é realmente ter uma abordagem baseada em ecossistemas para nossas cadeias de suprimentos e especificamente a cadeia de suprimentos de IA. And in my speech at Hudson I outlined our different lines of efforts including our policy road maps and our projects and about a week and a half ago we we basically did the first big, you know, what would be the tech equivalent of a product rollout where we announced a forward deployed industrial base with our oldest ally in Asia, the Philippines. E no meu discurso no Hudson, descrevi nossas diferentes linhas de esforço, incluindo nossos roteiros de políticas e nossos projetos, e há uma semana e meia fizemos essencialmente o primeiro grande lançamento, o equivalente tech de um lançamento de produto, onde anunciamos uma base industrial de implantação avançada com nosso aliado mais antigo na Ásia, as Filipinas. We made this arrangement with them where they are granting us 4,000 acres which is obviously very substantial. Fizemos esse acordo com eles em que estão nos concedendo 4.000 acres, o que é obviamente muito substancial. It's a third of the size of Manhattan to do a very large industrial build-out. É um terço do tamanho de Manhattan para fazer uma construção industrial de grande porte. That's one-of-a-kind that that helps combine the predictability and certainty of the American common law system with the industrial comparative advantages that the Philippines offers. É algo único que combina a previsibilidade e a segurança do sistema de direito comum americano com as vantagens industriais comparativas que as Filipinas oferecem. And the goal is really to secure inputs that are vital for our supply chains. E o objetivo é realmente garantir insumos vitais para nossas cadeias de suprimentos. And so we're super excited to be here in San Francisco talk to builders and see ways that we can actually accelerate supply chain security for our tech companies. Então estamos super empolgados em estar aqui em San Francisco, falar com construtores e encontrar maneiras de realmente acelerar a segurança da cadeia de suprimentos para nossas empresas de tecnologia. Is this set up as a special economic zone in the Philippines or could you tell us more about the details beyond sort of the legal side that you mentioned? Isso está configurado como uma zona econômica especial nas Filipinas ou você pode nos contar mais detalhes além do aspecto legal que mencionou? Yeah, absolutely. Sim, com certeza. So it Então é So right now the there are two phases to the plan. Então, agora, existem duas fases no plano. The first phase is the State Department taking into custody the the zone. A primeira fase é o Departamento de Estado assumindo a custódia da zona. We we're we are referring to it as an economic security zone because it is a very unique type of of arrangement. Estamos nos referindo a ela como zona de segurança econômica porque é um tipo muito único de arranjo. The State Department has authorities to take in land and property into custody sort of how foreign governments gift the State Department counselors and consulates and embassies. O Departamento de Estado tem autoridade para tomar terras e propriedades sob custódia, assim como governos estrangeiros doam ao Departamento de Estado consulados e embaixadas. It's very unique to do a gift of 4,000 acres, but fortunately there's no statutory limits on how big or small property can be. É muito único fazer uma doação de 4.000 acres, mas felizmente não há limites estatutários sobre o tamanho da propriedade. And so that's phase one. E então essa é a fase um. So right now it's actually diplomatic property that is effectively, you know, governed by the same laws as as our embassies are. Então, agora é na verdade uma propriedade diplomática que é efetivamente governada pelas mesmas leis que nossas embaixadas. Phase two will be the long-term development and build-out of the land. A fase dois será o desenvolvimento e a construção de longo prazo do terreno. And so we are going to spend we have two years a two-year window to negotiate the details with our Filipino counterparts on the investor protections that will apply to the land, the tax taxation regimes, and and all of the different, you know, legal safeguards that investors will be able to benefit from from for the long term. Então vamos ter um período de dois anos para negociar os detalhes com nossos parceiros filipinos sobre as proteções ao investidor que se aplicarão ao terreno, os regimes de tributação, e todas as diferentes salvaguardas legais das quais os investidores poderão se beneficiar a longo prazo. And the goal is within that two-year window to actually have a long-term framework that will be multi multiple decades. E o objetivo é que, dentro dessa janela de dois anos, tenhamos um framework de longo prazo que dure múltiplas décadas. It's it amazing innovation. É uma inovação incrível. Are there specific domains that you think makes sense to invest in there from a manufacturing, mineral processing, whatever it is perspective now? Existem domínios específicos que você acha que fazem sentido investir lá, seja em manufatura, processamento de minerais, ou qualquer outra área? Yeah, so the goal is really to actually test a concept that could potentially be replicable. Sim, o objetivo é realmente testar um conceito que poderia ser potencialmente replicável. I mean, right now if you know, when we think about the AI supply chain, a lot of people just think of chips, but the reality is that the AI supply chain actually includes thousands of inputs like precision reducers and server motors and rare earth magnets and actuators and our concentration risk as a country is incredibly high for basically all of those inputs. Ou seja, agora quando pensamos na cadeia de suprimentos de IA, muita gente pensa apenas em chips, mas a realidade é que a cadeia de suprimentos de IA inclui na verdade milhares de insumos como redutores de precisão, motores de servidor, magnetos de terras raras e atuadores, e nosso risco de concentração como país é incrivelmente alto para praticamente todos esses insumos. And so, the goal is to identify key geographies that actually have industrial, you know, strengths and bring unique capabilities to the table that could actually help us move the needle meaningfully in in, you know, different segments of the supply chain. Então, o objetivo é identificar geografias-chave que realmente tenham profundidade industrial, trazem capacidades únicas para a mesa, e que possam realmente nos ajudar a avançar de forma significativa em diferentes segmentos da cadeia de suprimentos. So, the Philippines already has a native indigenous manufacturing ecosystem that's already quite deep. As Filipinas já possuem um ecossistema de manufatura nativo e indígena que já é bastante robusto. It's It's our oldest ally in Asia. É nosso aliado mais antigo na Ásia. So, we have a very deep values alignment with the Philippines and so, we think that the nexus between the values alignment combined with their industrial advantages actually makes for a very compelling value proposition for a lot of companies. Então temos um alinhamento de valores muito profundo com as Filipinas e acreditamos que o nexo entre o alinhamento de valores combinado com suas vantagens industriais realmente representa uma proposta de valor muito atraente para muitas empresas. We're talking with a number of companies focused on the robotics supply chain. Estamos conversando com várias empresas focadas na cadeia de suprimentos de robótica. As you guys know living out here and I'm sure you guys include robotics companies in your portfolio. Como vocês sabem vivendo aqui e tenho certeza que vocês incluem empresas de robótica em seus portfólios. But the robotics supply chain robotics is an incredibly promising industry that really is poised to change a lot of things in in manufacturing as well as in people's daily lives and the supply chain is right now completely dominated by China. Mas a cadeia de suprimentos de robótica é uma indústria incrivelmente promissora que está prestes a mudar muita coisa na manufatura e também no cotidiano das pessoas, e a cadeia de suprimentos é atualmente completamente dominada pela China. And so, that's an that's an area where that's you know, where we're particularly interested in potentially making a bet on. Então, é uma área em que estamos particularmente interessados em potencialmente fazer uma aposta. When most people hear economic security policy, one of the first things they think of is the Belt and Road Initiative. Quando a maioria das pessoas ouve política de segurança econômica, uma das primeiras coisas em que pensa é na Belt and Road Initiative. How would you contrast, you know, your strategy and the State Department's strategy here with that approach? Como você contrasta, sabe, sua estratégia e a estratégia do Departamento de Estado com essa abordagem? Yeah, so that's such a great question. Sim, é uma pergunta ótima. And I think, you know, one of the one of the benefits that we've been able to um leverage uh developing the strategy today E acho que um dos benefícios que conseguimos aproveitar ao desenvolver a estratégia hoje [clears throat] [clears throat] is the ability to study 25 years of, you know, of China's Belt and Road Initiative, how they've done what they've done, you know, what's worked, what hasn't worked. é a capacidade de estudar 25 anos da Belt and Road Initiative da China, como eles fizeram o que fizeram, o que funcionou, o que não funcionou. And E [clears throat] [clears throat] you know, fundamentally sabe, fundamentalmente You want to explain what that is, too, for our audience? Você quer explicar o que é isso também para nossa audiência? Yeah, so the Belt and Road Initiative is a very, very large foreign policy project of the Chinese government that basically involved using state-owned enterprises that are essentially extensions of the government to carry out massive infrastructure projects overseas. Sim, então a Belt and Road Initiative é um projeto de política externa muito, muito grande do governo chinês que basicamente envolveu o uso de empresas estatais que são essencialmente extensões do governo para realizar enormes projetos de infraestrutura no exterior. And the idea is using infrastructure projects as a tool of foreign policy to achieve foreign policy outcomes. Het idee is infrastructuurprojecten te gebruiken als instrument van buitenlands beleid om buitenlandse beleidsdoelstellingen te bereiken. was the big build-outs, for example, in Africa that waren de grote uitbouwprojecten, bijvoorbeeld in Afrika die Exactly. Precies. did it in a variety of countries there. het in verschillende landen daar deden. That's right. Klopt. So, whether it's creating mines or, you know, processing facilities, a lot of the times it involved building out, you know, very big roads, sometimes bridges, a lot of the times it included railways. Of het nu gaat om het aanleggen van mijnen of verwerkingsfaciliteiten, vaak ging het ook om het aanleggen van grote wegen, soms bruggen, en veel van de keren ook spoorwegen. Um and [clears throat] and fundamentally what it was was state-owned enterprises um building government-operated railways, government, you know, built roads and bridges. En fundamenteel was het staatsbedrijven die door de overheid geëxploiteerde spoorwegen, wegen en bruggen bouwden. And the Chinese government, by virtue of its system, really built all of this in-house. En de Chinese overheid, vanwege haar systeem, bouwde dit allemaal zelf intern. Which for us, you know, when we think about how should we we want to secure supply chains, we need to make a lot of investments, you know, that um that are, you know, touch upon these kinds of industrial capabilities, but as Americans, we're not going to do this in-house inside of the government. Voor ons, als we nadenken over hoe we toeleveringsketens willen beveiligen, moeten we veel investeren die deze industriële capaciteiten raken, maar als Amerikanen gaan we dit niet intern binnen de overheid doen. effects of this for China was basically both building out their industrial base, but then also securing natural resources in some of these countries. Het effect hiervan voor China was in feite zowel de uitbouw van hun industriële basis als het veiligstellen van natuurlijke hulpbronnen in een aantal van deze landen. Exactly. Precies. they were able to build a network that ensured that their factories in China had all the inputs um in order to actually really, you know, thrive. Ze konden een netwerk opbouwen dat ervoor zorgde dat hun fabrieken in China over alle inputs beschikten om echt te kunnen floreren. And and you know, Shenzhen today is really, you know, the world's factory floor um because they have deep relationships with suppliers and vendors, you know, on every continent, basically. En Shenzhen is vandaag echt de fabriekshal van de wereld, omdat ze diepe relaties hebben met leveranciers op feitelijk elk continent. Um and the infrastructure that they leverage allows them to get access in a way that's very very competitive. En de infrastructuur die ze benutten, geeft hen toegang op een manier die zeer concurrerend is. So, the question for us is, you know, how do we compete in that landscape at a time when we want to re-industrialize? De vraag voor ons is dus hoe we concurreren in dat landschap op een moment dat we willen reindustrialiseren. And the answer is we're not going to do government-operated supply chains because that's not how we shine as a country. En het antwoord is dat we geen door de overheid beheerde toeleveringsketens gaan opzetten, want zo blinken we niet uit als land. And I the, you know, sort of where we've landed is our superpower is really our private sector and our companies. En waar we zijn uitgekomen, is dat onze superkracht echt onze private sector en onze bedrijven zijn. And it's sort of the old Steve Jobs quote that, you know, American products enchant and delight users around the world by the billions, and that's how with you know, that is really is our edge as a country. En het is min of meer de oude uitspraak van Steve Jobs dat Amerikaanse producten gebruikers wereldwijd per miljard betoveren en verrukken, en dat is echt onze troef als land. And so, how do we, you know, adopt a product-based, a product-centric approach to, you know, our foreign policy where we can actually um use that kind of approach to to achieve foreign policy outcomes. Hoe hanteren we een productgerichte aanpak van ons buitenlands beleid waarmee we buitenlandse beleidsdoelstellingen kunnen bereiken? And and what we've done, so that's very much sort of the lens of how we've, you know, decided to focus our economic security strategy. En dat is heel erg de lens waarmee we onze economische veiligheidsstrategie hebben besloten te richten. Um the answer's been trying [clears throat] to work in lockstep with our private and our builders to build platforms that are commercially viable and that will can ultimately live outside of the government as a private service. Het antwoord is geweest om hand in hand te werken met onze private bedrijven en onze bouwers om platforms te bouwen die commercieel levensvatbaar zijn en uiteindelijk buiten de overheid kunnen functioneren als een privatedienst. And so, the forward-deployed industrial base is meant to be a platform uh for pri- for private investment that will be viable for the long term. De forward-deployed industrial base is dus bedoeld als een platform voor private investering die op de lange termijn levensvatbaar zal zijn. It's the first of its kind. Het is de eerste in zijn soort. We're thinking about making a big play in the logistics space uh in partnership with um large, you know, corporates um and in June we're we're looking at potentially doing a broader rollout where we're going to roll out four or five different big lines of effort. We denken na over een grote stap in de logistieke sector in samenwerking met grote corporates, en in juni kijken we mogelijk naar een bredere lancering waarbij we vier of vijf grote actielijnen zullen ontvouwen. You guys are both invited to Washington for it. Jullie zijn allebei uitgenodigd in Washington daarvoor. And and so you know, having a product based approach is very much how we're thinking about it. Een productgerichte aanpak is heel erg hoe we erover nadenken. As somebody who's done a deep study of the pros and cons of Belt and Road, there's obviously access to infrastructure and inputs as some dimension of success here. Als iemand die een diepgaande studie heeft gedaan van de voor- en nadelen van Belt and Road, is toegang tot infrastructuur en inputs duidelijk een dimensie van succes hier. What's been the failure point for Belt and Road? Wat is het mislukpunt geweest van Belt and Road? Well, the failure point is, you know, so first of all, obviously Nou, het mislukpunt is, eerst van alles, uiteraard [clears throat] [clears throat] some of the projects, you know, have been useful for China. sommige projecten zijn nuttig geweest voor China. There is there's a lot of waste in the Belt and Road initiative and, you know, mainly it's because whenever you have, you know, central planning and and really government bureaucrats effectively, you know, allocating large pools of capital. Er is veel verspilling in het Belt and Road-initiatief, en dat komt voornamelijk doordat je bij centrale planning en overheidsbureaucraten die grote kapitaalpools alloceren veel verspilling krijgt. There's a lot of waste because vendors, you know, massively overcharge things. Er is veel verspilling omdat leveranciers dingen enorm overdrijven in prijs. There's a lot of waste because there's a lot of roads to nowhere. Er is veel verspilling omdat er veel wegen naar nergens zijn. Um Hm And and what happens is, you know, China will basically deploy capital to its own companies that then, you know, basically write IOUs to the host country. En wat er gebeurt, is dat China in wezen kapitaal inzet bij zijn eigen bedrijven die dan schuldbrieven uitschrijven aan het gastland. And the host country realizes that you know, they they you know, they've gained a reputation for these projects have gained a reputation for being debt trap because China will say, you know, we'll build a road and, you know, as a loan except the company building the road is Chinese and so China can basically decide, you know, what the price is and as you guys know, you know, when you build a house or when you do any construction project, a lot of projects run over budget a lot and so, you know, when a host country thinks it's taking on, you know, X [clears throat] million dollars in liabilities and it actually ends up being 10 X En het gastland komt erachter dat deze projecten een reputatie hebben gekregen als schuldval, omdat China zal zeggen, we bouwen een weg, en als lening, behalve dat het bedrijf dat de weg bouwt Chinees is, zodat China in feite de prijs kan bepalen, en zoals jullie weten, als je een huis bouwt of een bouwproject doet, overschrijden veel projecten het budget, dus als een gastland denkt X miljoen dollar aan verplichtingen op zich te nemen maar het uiteindelijk 10 keer zoveel wordt Um that's when they kind of end up in quicksand. dan raken ze als het ware in drijfzand. And so the Belt and Road Initiative has really garnered a reputation for um really being a tool of political leverage that um a lot of countries are still digging themselves out of. Het Belt and Road Initiative heeft dus echt een reputatie gekregen als instrument van politieke druk waaruit veel landen zich nog steeds proberen te bevrijden. And so versus one of partnership. En dus versus een van partnerschap.