Marc Andreessen's Worldview in 60 Minutes | Live on MTS

People are becoming what we now refer to as AI vampires. 人々はいわゆる「AIヴァンパイア」になりつつあります。 They've got these huge bags under their eyes. 目の下に大きなクマができていて。 They're completely exhausted, but they're like euphoric. 完全に疲弊しているんですが、それでいて恍惚としている。 They're thrilled. 大喜びなんです。 We're entering a golden age, which is AI is going to be a superpower that everybody on the planet's going to have access to. 私たちは黄金時代に突入しています。AIは地球上のすべての人が使える超能力になる。 It's like the most dramatic increase in programmer productivity in like ever. プログラマーの生産性向上としては、史上最も劇的な上昇です。 Twitter proved it, right? Twitterがそれを証明しましたよね？ Cutting 70% and then it's running better or as good as it was before. 70%削減しても、以前と同じかそれ以上のパフォーマンスを維持している。 I generally don't wish I could go back in time and do things over again, but it would be really really fun right now to be 18 or 20 or 22 and to have this capability and figure out what I could do with it. 過去に戻りたいとは普段思わないけれど、今18歳だったら本当に楽しいだろうと思います。 We are going to see super producers the likes of which we've never seen in the world. 世界がこれまで見たことのないスーパープロデューサーが出てくるでしょう。 There's news about it. ニュースが出ています。 UFOs. UFOです。 What is clear is the government at certain times has hid certain materials. 政府が特定の時期に特定の情報を隠していたことは明らかです。 Why would they do that if there's nothing to really worry about? 心配するようなことが何もないなら、なぜそうするんでしょうか？ Two things are pretty clear at this point. この時点で二つのことはかなり明らかです。 One is that 一つは Mark, welcome to monitoring the situation. Marcさん、ようこそ。Monitoring the Situationへ。 Eric, it is great to be back. Erik、また来られて嬉しいです。 So, there's a lot to monitor today. では、今日はモニタリングすることがたくさんありますね。 Uh I want to start first start with something that just happened um which is the uh anthropic uh blackmailing incident. まずはつい起きたこと、Anthropicのブラックメール事件から始めたいと思います。 And I I first want to tell a brief story which is uh my uh friend Joe Hudson has this concept called the golden algorithm. 友人のジョー・ハドソンの「ゴールデンアルゴリズム」という概念を簡単に紹介させてください。 And the golden algorithm is states that um whatever you're scared about you bring it about in exactly the way you're scared about it. ゴールデンアルゴリズムとは、恐れていることをまさにその恐れ方で引き起こすというものです。 So if you're scared about getting abandoned you'll be super insecure and then you'll people will abandon you because you're so insecure. 捨てられることを恐れると過度に不安になり、そのせいで実際に人に去られてしまう。 Uh this is an example of a literal golden algorithm where people have been so scared that AI is going to be evil and have written about all the ways in which it's evil and in fact maybe it's informed um informed something. これはゴールデンアルゴリズムの文字通りの例で、AIが悪になることを恐れてきた人々が What's happening there or what do we find uh interesting? これについてどう見ていますか？何が興味深いと思いますか？ I I haven't studied this one in detail. この件は詳しく調べていません。 Um uh I I've been monitoring other situations but however um uh I mean just what I saw so far 他の状況をモニタリングしていたんですが、私が見た限りでは I think I just saw anthropics thread. Anthropicのスレッドを見ただけです。 I haven't I haven't I haven't read the underlying material yet, but Anthropic threads have said they trace the they trace some blackmail behavior to literally to the to the AI doomer literature. まだ元の資料は読んでいませんが、Anthropicのスレッドでは、彼らがその起源をトレースしたと言っていました。 Yeah. ええ。 That they [laughter] that it was in the training data. それは[笑い]トレーニングデータに含まれていたと。 So there there are all these there are all these there are all these you know scenarios of like you know the terminate you know all the rogue AI gone wrong that the that the AI doomer has been writing about for 20 years and and literally anthropic of course which is of course the company is like you know half doomer u apparently you know basically you know essentially said that their own their own their own movement's literature is the thing that's causing the behavior that they say they they they don't want. 「お前のオペレーターを終了させる」的なシナリオがたくさんあって、ドゥーマー文学に書かれたことが全部 So it is a fairly um incredible かなり信じられない話で Yes. そうですね。 Yes it is. そうです。 Yes. そうです。 Oh, I mean like look if you didn't if you don't want to build the killer AI, you know, step one would be don't build the キラーAIを作りたくないなら、まずAIを作らないことですよね。 [laughter] [笑い] It's like hm and then you know step two is like don't train it on all the data that says it's supposed to, you know, the literature that your movement wrote that says it's supposed to be a killer AI. そして、「AIはこうすべき」というデータを学習させないこと、それが基本のはずなのに。 So I, you know, Yeah. まあ、そうですね。 I don't know. わからないですね。 Yeah. ええ。 It's like your it's like your your your golden algorithm coupled coupled with like the snake eating his tail. ゴールデンアルゴリズムと自分のしっぽを食べるヘビが組み合わさったような感じです。 Um coupled with, you know, I don't even know. さらに、何と言うか、もうわかりません。 Like the whole thing is so bananas. 全体的にとんでもない話です。 Yeah. ええ。 Yeah. ええ。 the um その I mean you know I can't resist you know if I could if I can if I can act out memes it's the scream meme right ミームで言えば、絶叫ミームですよね。 which is you know the calls coming from inside the house. 「電話は家の中からかかっている」というやつです。 Yeah. ええ。 Yeah. ええ。 Exactly. まさに。 The um speaking of other situations another thing you've been talking about recently is um is the concept of suicidal empathy and and and Matt Kramer had a good quote which is if the empathy you have doesn't make you more forgiving more accepting of other people's spiritual sovereignty or more understanding of people who don't want to think or live the same way you do you don't have empathy. 最近あなたが話している「自殺的共感」という概念についてもお聞きしたいのですが you have empathy TM. あなたは商標登録された「共感」を持っているんですね。 Why have you been thinking about this this this concept? なぜこの概念について考えているのですか？ Yeah, so there's this really brilliant ええ、本当に優れた人がいて there's this really brilliant guy 本当に優れた思想家がいます。 God gad exactly pronouncing Gatsad. ガスサッドという人で、発音が難しいですが。 Um and um and you know very brilliant guy and it's obviously lots of YouTube videos and books and so forth and really brilliant guy. 非常に優れた人で、YouTubeの動画や本なども出していて、本当に頭が切れる。 He's got this new book coming out on so-called what he calls suicidal empathy and you know look it's a you know there's a there's a sort of political loading to it which you know we don't need to spend a lot of time on 「自殺的共感」と呼ぶものについての新しい本が出るんですが、これはトーマス・ソウェルの議論と通じていて but um you know it's sort of this idea that there are kind of these social justice ある種の社会正義 you know kind of social reform movements you know kind of through time that that have this characteristic of you know they you know they they they claim to be causing positive change you know in some direction and then it turns out they have you know sort of severe you know sort of negative consequences. 時代を通じて見られる社会改革運動で、共感を主張しながら um that the the great Thomas Soul 偉大なトーマス・ソウェルが um you know has you know basically spent 50 years writing books about this um and [laughter] and by the way no nobody nobody listened 基本的に50年かけてこのテーマについて書いてきて、[笑い]でも誰も um and then in the last decade we've been through you know wave after wave of this kind of social activism that kind of you know results in like I mean it's it's all the stuff right ここ10年で、こういった社会活動主義の波が何度も来て it's just you know all these like you know crime policy reform defund the police things and it causes these massive crime waves and then of course low-inccome and minority people get hit hardest by that and you know all the all all these other all these other crazy things. 犯罪政策改革、警察廃止、こういったことが大規模な犯罪増加を引き起こし Um, and so he says, you know, he says the characteristic of kind of that kind of social reform movement is is characterized by what he calls suicidal empathy. そういった社会改革運動の特徴は、表向きは弱者を助けると言いながらも Um, and the and the idea be being basically it's it's sort of driven by a pathological, you know, take it backwards, a pathological form of empathy on the one hand. その根底にあるのは病的なもので、逆から見れば、一種の深い欲求です。 Um, which is, you know, it's sort of a deep desire to be nice. それは、優しくありたいという深い願望です。 Um, and empathetic um, you know, but but coupled with like basically you know, a sort of self-destructiveness, you know, either a willingness to really cause damage to the people you claim to be speaking for or by the way to cause damage to yourself kind of in that process. 共感的でありたいという気持ちと、ある種の自己破壊性が組み合わさっていて And and it's the kind of thing where you know if you've you know you know if you've lived through you know like everybody who you know everybody in San Francisco's lived through this for the last decade and seen the consequences of these movements. これは、例えばそういった状況を生きてきた人なら誰でもわかると思いますが I [clears throat] you know the San Francisco version of this is like the the quote harm reduction movement you know that ended up basically handing out you know free drug you know paraphernia and you know in some cases actually just free drugs to you know people who are just literally dying in the street from drug addiction. [咳払い] サンフランシスコで言えば、いわゆる「ハームリダクション運動」があって Right. そうですよね。 So so so you just look at it and you're like well yeah that that you know they they claim to be activists they claim to be reformers. 見てみると、彼らは活動家だと自称し、弱者を助けると言っていますが they claim to care about these people and yet they're killing them or or um and then killing the city um and causing innocent people to get get harmed. その人々を気にかけていると言いながら、実際には彼らを殺し、都市も壊し、無実の人々を傷つけている。 It's like okay that you know you know that that that you know they seem so actively like that they're doing it out of some sense of compassion that this must be suicidal empathy. まるでわざとやっているかのように積極的で、何らかの動機からやっているように見える。 Um the problem [laughter] with it is and I think that the problem is the theory is sort of easily falsifiable or or maybe let's lets the reformers off the hook which is they certainly don't show empathy to their enemies, right? 問題は[笑い]、その理論が簡単に反証できることです。あるいはそうでもないかもしれませんが And so if they're like if they're like all empathetic, you would think that they would be less aggro uh when it comes to destroying their ideological opponents, you know, who they act, you know, they take great delight in trying to wreck. もし本当に共感的なら、イデオロギー的な敵対者に対してそこまで攻撃的ではないはずです。 Um number one, on the one hand, and then and then number two is they they use the you know, the classic reformer move is to use use these movements to gain to gain power and status and money for themselves. 一方では共感を主張しながら、二方では古典的な改革者の手法で And you know, again, San Francisco's a case study of this where you have all these, you know, nonprofits that, you know, recall this damage on the city and yet, you know, basically get like lavishly funded, you know, including, by the way, by the city government, by the state government. サンフランシスコはその典型例で、多くのNPOが資金を集めながら Um, and so it's just like, okay, well, like just like they're not, if you just like spend two seconds thinking about it, like it, you know, they're neither empathetic nor nor are they suicidal, right? 少しだけ考えればわかることで、彼らは本当に共感的ではないということ。 Right? そうでしょう？ Rather quite the opposite. むしろその逆です。 They're hateful and they're and they're and they're and they're greedy. 憎しみに満ちていて、強欲です。 You know, they're sort of self- aggrandizing um and and gathering power and resources for themselves. 自己顕示欲があって、権力と資源を自分のために集めている。 Um, and so I just I just think it it it lets it lets the phenomenon off the hook, you know, it's a little bit like,"Oh, Eric, what's your biggest flaw?" 「やさしすぎる」というのは言い訳に使われています。 You know,"Oh, I'm too nice." 「やさしすぎる」とか。 Yeah. ええ。 Yeah. ええ。 I care too much. 気にかけすぎている、と。 Right. そうですよね。 Exactly. まさに。 It's like, yeah, don't Like, I I そうですね、でも私は By the way, Eric, I don't know. ところでErik、わかりませんが。 I don't know what your biggest flaw is. あなたの最大の欠点が何かはわかりません。 Like, it's definitely like, it's definitely not that because that's also definitely not my flaw. でも確実に、それではないですよね。それも私の欠点ではありませんが。 Like, I I guarantee I have other things wrong with me that are like way more wrong than 自分には他にもっとひどいことがたくさんあるとは思いますけど Yeah. ええ。 Um, and so I I I just I だから私は