ゴールドマン・サックス会長が語るAIと金融の未来 | The a16z Show

anybody who's investing, you know, you're doing two things. 投資している人なら誰でも、二つのことを同時にしています。 You're trying to make money for yourselves and your clients, and so you're trying to get out there and take risk, and you're also trying to be a risk manager, and you have to do both. 自分自身とクライアントのためにお金を稼ごうとしている。リスクを取りにいきながら、同時にリスクマネージャーでもある。両方をやらなければならない。 I think it was your quote there. それはあなたの言葉でしたよね。 It's like, if you're so good at predicting the future, tell me what's going to happen next. 将来の予測がそんなに得意なら、次に何が起きるか教えてください、というわけです。 Once the present turns into the past, everybody's a genius. 現在が過去になった瞬間、誰もが天才になります。 Most of what we do with respect to risk is not so much predicting, it's a lot of contingency planning. リスクに関して私たちがすることの大半は、予測ではなくコンティンジェンシープランニングです。 We are on the precipice of some of the largest IPOs ever. 史上最大規模のIPOの波が来ようとしています。 What are risks that you think are underappreciated? 過小評価されていると思うリスクは何ですか？ Before this technological age, not just AI, but in general, could you have had a mistake that could cost billions of dollars? この技術の時代が来る前、AIだけでなく一般的に言っても、数十億ドルの損失を招く間違いが起きていたでしょうか？ Um, not really. まあ、そうとも言えません。 But now you can leave a a piece of software could go out and do 70,000 transactions. でも今はソフトウェアが7万件のトランザクションを実行できます。 The leverage in these things is themselves a problem. こういったものに組み込まれたレバレッジ自体が問題です。 Not because it's smarter than us and it's going to turn us into pets, but because we don't have the ability to test whether it's right or not. AIが私たちより賢くてペットにされるからではなく、それが正しいかどうかテストする手段がないからです。 Your tweet, by the way, about the White House Correspondent Center was amazing. ホワイトハウス記者協会についてのあなたのツイート、ところで素晴らしかったですよ。 Uh, I think for for the good of like the timeline, we need you back on on Twitter more often. タイムラインのためにも、Twitterにもっと頻繁に戻ってきてほしいと思います。 I know. わかってますよ。 You know what it's a funny thing is I おかしなことにね、 You would think that um you see something and you're activated to tweet about it. 何か見て、ツイートしたくなって、それで動くと思うでしょう。 It me I said,"Oh, gee, I haven't tweeted for a long time. 自分で言いましたよ、ずいぶん長いことツイートしていないな、 Let me find something to tweet about." ツイートすることを見つけてみよう、と。 That's more and also being in the risk management business それ以上に、リスク管理の仕事をしているから I always know that everybody keeps doing that and eventually you get cancelled because you do you know you do something you step over some invisible line that you you know that nobody knew about and so I realized that from a riskreward point of view it's all ego and no no real value other than that but that was saying you know when you retired you your grasp its draws 皆がやり続けるといつかキャンセルされるとわかっています。何かやらかして、誰も知らなかった見えない一線を越えてしまう。リスクとリターンの観点から見れば、すべてエゴで本当の価値はない。でも引退したとき、発言力が増すと思ったんです。 why not なぜしないんですか I mean it was like 10 million views later or something 確か1000万ビューとかだったような I mean it was like 10 million views later or something I went to 1000万ビューとかのやつ、あのとき私は I remember when I was um doing it あれをやっていたとき覚えていますが what's his name from なんていう名前でしたっけ uh えー You know, I got this そうなんですよ I said to you know when I retired 引退したとき言ったんですよ no unrestrained いや、制約なしで uh no I I am いや、私は I am freed from the restraints that I had because I started you know I did this at Goldman Goldman Sachsで始めたときの制約から解放されました。 and I realized that I was um you know playing a dangerous game because I was being snarky with the president and I had all those back and forths totally 気づいたんですよ、危険なゲームをしていたと。政治家に対して皮肉を言っていましたから with um Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. サンダースとエリザベス・ウォーレンにね。 The the other thing I was curious to ask you, you know, you're obviously like famous for being come under pressure and a risk a risk manager, but it was reported that you you know what like during the active shooter, like you lean over to the person next to you, you're like, you're going to you're going to finish that that salad. もう一つ聞きたかったのですが、プレッシャーに強いリスクマネージャーとして有名ですよね。銃撃犯が現れた状況で、隣の人に「サラダ食べないの？」と声をかけたと伝えられていますが、あれは本当のことですか？ Is that was that a real あれは本当のことでしたか？ No, that was いや、あれは Yeah, that was real. ええ、本当のことです。 But I but it wasn't, you know, it wasn't like I was でもそれは、あの、そういうわけじゃなくて I was hungry. お腹が空いていたんです。 I 私は So every you know, I always used in in moments of crisis like that, I always tried to be disarming. 私はいつも、危機的な瞬間には緊張を和らげようとします。 Sure. もちろん。 And you know, everybody was and and by the way, it was very sensible to duck down under the desk. みんなもそうしていました。机の下に隠れるのは全く合理的なことでしたよ。 I mean, it was a line, you know, realized we were pretty close up and I was just it wasn't it wasn't that thoughtful on my part. 思い出すと、かなり近い位置にいて、何が起きているのかを観察していました。 It was just that I was like it was like it was like being in a movie and I was like enjoying watching it. まるで映画の中にいるようで、ただ観察していました。 Totally. 全くその通り。 And you had all these um guys who were wearing tuxedos. タキシードを着た男たちが大勢いて、 Suddenly they had little, you know, they had uh they had pistols in their hand and there were guys in full tactically and they all ran in and they all s you know they all were on the stage with with their guns facing outward of course because that's where the threat would have come from. 突然ピストルを持った男たちが現れて、会場に入ってきました。みんな飛び込んだり床に伏せたりしていました。 Then I you know suddenly you know guy tugs at my you know leg and he said you know you really should get down. そしたら隣の人が脚を引っ張って、本当に伏せたほうがいいと言うんです。 And I said you're really right. 全くその通りだと思いましたよ。 I said you know this is like like when I get into an airplane this is one this is another time that I'm glad I'm short. 飛行機に乗るときと同じで、これはそういう状況だ、って言いました。 Um, but I was uh watching it and then and then I saw what everybody was doing and know I didn't see a lot of panic. それを見ながら、みんなが何をしているか観察していて、 I didn't see any panic really the people under this which was a sensible thing to do. 机の下の人たちは本当にパニックしているわけじゃなかった。合理的な行動でした。 Yeah. そうですね。 But again to break the moment I looked down and they said by the way are you going to finish your uh are you going to finish your are you going to finish your salad? 場の雰囲気を変えようと下を見て、ところでそのサラダ食べ終わる？と言ったんです。 And as I said it was, you know, it was kind of a you know it was kind of funny at the time. おかしな話ですが、当時は自然に出てきました。 Ice in the veins you know I don't know. 冷静ですね、本当に。 Well, were were you always even killed like as a as a kid or 子どもの頃からそうでしたか？ Yes, I was. ええ、そうでした。 You know, in somebody said go Gleman, you know, you're very good in a crisis and uh and and and that's why you go out of your way to create them. 誰かがね、こう言ったんですよ。ブランクファイン、危機のときは本当にうまくやるね、だからわざわざ危機を作り出すんだろう、って。 So, just so you can give you an opportunity to be good in a crisis. 危機においてうまくやれるチャンスを与えてやろうと。 And I would say that my normal resting um you know, my resting state is to not be resting. 私の通常の休息状態は、休息していない状態だと言えます。 So, I tend to be a little bit wound all the time, but I don't get especially wound. 常に少し緊張しているのですが、特別に緊張することはありません。 In fact, things slow down for me. むしろ物事がスローダウンします。 I'm used to seeing things uh like that. そういう状況を見慣れているんです。 They're in slow motion, and I become very sensitive to what the people around me are thinking and trying to, you know, get them uh most of the time like at Goldman and and in most most of life in a crisis time, the really important thing is just to get people to do their jobs and to stop being, you know, stop, you know, don't be frozen and don't be uh don't submit to the chaos. スローモーションで見えて、周囲の人が何を考え何をしようとしているかに非常に敏感になります。Goldman Sachsでの危機の時もそうでしたし、大半の場面で、危機においてもっとも重要なのは人々に自分の仕事をさせ、フリーズしたり混乱に飲み込まれたりしないようにすることです。 Do you think that was like a nate or was there something from your childhood that sort of like helped kind of breed that temperament? それは生まれつきですか、それとも子ども時代の何かがそれを育てたのでしょうか？ I don't know. わかりません。 I wouldn't have predicted that about myself, but I've now gone through, you know, we, you know, going, we had the crisis of the century roughly every four or five years. 自分でもそうなるとは予測していませんでしたが、金融危機など様々な危機を経験する中でそう気づきました。 Um, and it's always that way. いつもそうなんです。 But, by the way, it doesn't mean I like crises and I wouldn't go out of my way to volunteer to be in one. それは危機が好きとか自ら飛び込みたいということではありません。 It's just that when it happens, I I I generally have confidence that I'm not going to get dis that I'm not trying to tempt the fates. ただ、それが起きたとき、私は一般的に自分が動揺しないという自信があります。運命を試もうとしているわけでもありません。 If I'm going to get discombobulated, everyone is going to get discombobulated before me. 私が動揺するようなことになれば、その前に誰もが動揺しているはずです。 That's how I that's how, you know, and so I I've done that. そういうことで、そうやってきました。 And by the way, that that taught me a lot about, you know, the people that you need to rely on because you can't really tell, それが、頼りになる人について多くを教えてくれました。外見からは本当にわかりません。 you know, I mean, not to coin a phrase, but you can't tell a book by its color. こう言ってはなんですが、人は見かけによらないということです。 And I, you know, I went through and, you know, maybe this is out of sequence, but I went through the financial crisis and we had, you know, we had people, you know, and thinking one in particular who was great athlete, terrific guy, real man's man, you know, 金融危機を経験した中で、話が前後しますが、すごいアスリートで男らしいと思われていた人がいまして、 did rodeos on the weekend and 週末にロデオをやっていたような人で and he was, you know, terrible. その人が本当にダメだったんです。 Yep. なるほど。 And you know and then here I am the co co-president of the firm you know here そして当時私は会社の共同社長でしたが、 I am trying to teach people how to me and you know trying to say you know you have to breathe and then there were people who didn't look like they could walk up a whole flight of stairs 人々に教えようとしていました。落ち着いて、呼吸して、と言おうとしていたら、階段を一フロア上がれそうにも見えない人たちが and they were you know really good and so you know just people you know you just don't know 本当に優秀だったりするんです。人はわからないものです。 and that's why だからこそ I mean my advice uh you know when you when you pick board members 取締役を選ぶときのアドバイスとして yep そうですね and by this is a very I'm turning something that's generic into a very narrow things. これは一般論を非常に具体的な話に変えてしまうことになりますが。 I I think a good place to go is find people who've already gone through a crisis because to me, people who look like and sound like すでに危機を経験した人を探すのが良いと思います。なぜなら、優秀そうに見える人が、 they'll get through it. 乗り越えられると思うからです。 It's not really uh 実際のところ I'm not sure how much of a correlation there is to the to the to the reality of it, but when somebody's gone through a crisis, I think that's your best bet. どのくらい相関があるかは確かではありませんが、危機を経験した人は危機の感触を知っています。 Totally. 全くその通りです。 Well, I I definitely want to spend some time on on the financial crisis. 金融危機についてはぜひ時間を取りたいと思っています。 Obviously, was uh such a defining kind of period. 明らかに非常に決定的な時期でしたよね。 Um but maybe to go backwards sometime obviously you um でも少し遡ると、あなたは you know, you had a very modest upbringing. とても質素な育ちでしたよね。 Um, you know, I was curious like, you know, uh, what role did like living near New York City or Manhattan maybe more specifically play in sort of like creating ambition or or for me, you know, I didn't grow up in the projects, but I grew up very modestly as well. ニューヨーク市やマンハッタンの近くで育つことが、野心を育てる上でどんな役割を果たしたか気になっていました。私もそれほど裕福ではなかったですが。 And where'd you grow up? どこで育ちましたか？