El presidente de Goldman Sachs habla sobre AI y el futuro de las finanzas | The a16z Show

anybody who's investing, you know, you're doing two things. cualquiera que invierte, ¿sabes?, está haciendo dos cosas. You're trying to make money for yourselves and your clients, and so you're trying to get out there and take risk, and you're also trying to be a risk manager, and you have to do both. Intentas ganar dinero para ti y tus clientes, así que tratas de asumir riesgos, pero también tienes que ser un gestor de riesgo. Hay que hacer las dos cosas. I think it was your quote there. Creo que esa es tu cita. It's like, if you're so good at predicting the future, tell me what's going to happen next. Es como, si eres tan bueno prediciendo el futuro, dime qué va a pasar. Once the present turns into the past, everybody's a genius. Una vez que el presente se convierte en pasado, todo el mundo es un genio. Most of what we do with respect to risk is not so much predicting, it's a lot of contingency planning. La mayor parte de lo que hacemos con respecto al riesgo no es tanto predecir, sino planificación de contingencias. We are on the precipice of some of the largest IPOs ever. Estamos al borde de algunas de las IPOs más grandes de la historia. What are risks that you think are underappreciated? ¿Qué riesgos crees que están siendo subestimados? Before this technological age, not just AI, but in general, could you have had a mistake that could cost billions of dollars? Antes de esta era tecnológica, no solo de AI, sino en general, ¿podrías haber tenido un software capaz de salir y ejecutar 70,000 transacciones? Um, not really. Más o menos, no. But now you can leave a a piece of software could go out and do 70,000 transactions. Pero ahora sí puedes. Un software podría salir y hacer 70,000 transacciones antes de que nadie pudiera verificar si estaban bien. The leverage in these things is themselves a problem. El leverage en estas cosas es en sí mismo un problema. Not because it's smarter than us and it's going to turn us into pets, but because we don't have the ability to test whether it's right or not. No porque sea más inteligente que nosotros y vaya a convertirnos en sus mascotas, sino porque no tenemos la capacidad de verificar si está haciendo lo correcto. Your tweet, by the way, about the White House Correspondent Center was amazing. Tu tuit sobre el White House Correspondents' Dinner fue increíble, por cierto. Uh, I think for for the good of like the timeline, we need you back on on Twitter more often. Creo que, por el bien del timeline, te necesitamos de vuelta en Twitter. I know. Lo sé. You know what it's a funny thing is I ¿Sabes? Es algo curioso porque yo You would think that um you see something and you're activated to tweet about it. Uno pensaría que ves algo y te dan ganas de tuitear al respecto. It me I said,"Oh, gee, I haven't tweeted for a long time. A mí me pasó. Dije: "Vaya, hace mucho que no tuiteo. Let me find something to tweet about." A ver qué encuentro para tuitear." That's more and also being in the risk management business Eso es más, y además, por estar en el negocio de la gestión de riesgos, I always know that everybody keeps doing that and eventually you get cancelled because you do you know you do something you step over some invisible line that you you know that nobody knew about and so I realized that from a riskreward point of view it's all ego and no no real value other than that but that was saying you know when you retired you your grasp its draws Siempre sé que todo el mundo sigue así y al final te cancelan porque haces algo, pisas una línea invisible que nadie sabía que existía. Así que desde el punto de vista riesgo-recompensa, es puro ego y sin ningún valor real. why not ¿por qué no? I mean it was like 10 million views later or something O sea, fueron como 10 millones de visitas después. I mean it was like 10 million views later or something I went to O sea, fue como 10 millones de visitas después. Fui a I remember when I was um doing it Recuerdo que cuando lo hacía what's his name from ¿cómo se llama, de uh eh You know, I got this ¿Sabes? Yo tenía esto I said to you know when I retired Le dije, ¿sabes? cuando me jubilé no unrestrained no, sin restricciones uh no I I am eh, no. Yo soy I am freed from the restraints that I had because I started you know I did this at Goldman Estoy libre de las restricciones que tenía porque, ¿sabes?, empecé así, lo hice and I realized that I was um you know playing a dangerous game because I was being snarky with the president and I had all those back and forths totally y me di cuenta de que estaba jugando un juego peligroso porque estaba siendo sarcástico with um Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. con Sanders y Elizabeth Warren. The the other thing I was curious to ask you, you know, you're obviously like famous for being come under pressure and a risk a risk manager, but it was reported that you you know what like during the active shooter, like you lean over to the person next to you, you're like, you're going to you're going to finish that that salad. Lo otro que tenía curiosidad de preguntarte: claramente eres famoso por tu sangre fría. Is that was that a real ¿Fue real eso? No, that was No, fue Yeah, that was real. Sí, fue real. But I but it wasn't, you know, it wasn't like I was Pero no fue, ¿sabes?, no fue como si yo estuviera I was hungry. Tenía hambre. I Yo So every you know, I always used in in moments of crisis like that, I always tried to be disarming. Siempre, ¿sabes?, en momentos de crisis como ese, siempre intento usar el humor. Sure. Claro. And you know, everybody was and and by the way, it was very sensible to duck down under the desk. Y ¿sabes?, todo el mundo, y por cierto, era muy sensato agacharse I mean, it was a line, you know, realized we were pretty close up and I was just it wasn't it wasn't that thoughtful on my part. Quiero decir, era una fila, ¿sabes?, me di cuenta de que estábamos bastante cerca y yo simplemente It was just that I was like it was like it was like being in a movie and I was like enjoying watching it. Era como si estuviera en una película y yo era la cámara. Totally. Totalmente. And you had all these um guys who were wearing tuxedos. Y tenías a todos esos tipos en esmoquin. Suddenly they had little, you know, they had uh they had pistols in their hand and there were guys in full tactically and they all ran in and they all s you know they all were on the stage with with their guns facing outward of course because that's where the threat would have come from. De repente tenían, ¿sabes?, tenían pistolas en la mano y yo pensé que eran parte del espectáculo. Then I you know suddenly you know guy tugs at my you know leg and he said you know you really should get down. Entonces alguien me jala de la pierna y me dice, ¿sabes? And I said you're really right. Y yo dije: "Tienes razón." I said you know this is like like when I get into an airplane this is one this is another time that I'm glad I'm short. Dije, ¿sabes?, esto es como cuando me subo a un avión. Esta es una de esas Um, but I was uh watching it and then and then I saw what everybody was doing and know I didn't see a lot of panic. Estaba observando y luego vi lo que hacía todo el mundo. I didn't see any panic really the people under this which was a sensible thing to do. No vi pánico real entre la gente agachada, que era lo sensato. Yeah. Sí. But again to break the moment I looked down and they said by the way are you going to finish your uh are you going to finish your are you going to finish your salad? Pero de nuevo, para romper el momento, miré hacia abajo y me dijeron: por cierto, ¿vas a terminar tu ensalada? And as I said it was, you know, it was kind of a you know it was kind of funny at the time. Y como dije, fue, ¿sabes?, fue un poco gracioso, ¿sabes? Ice in the veins you know I don't know. Sangre fría, ¿sabes? No sé. Well, were were you always even killed like as a as a kid or Pero ¿siempre fuiste así, incluso de niño? Yes, I was. Sí, lo era. You know, in somebody said go Gleman, you know, you're very good in a crisis and uh and and and that's why you go out of your way to create them. Alguien me dijo: «Blankfein, eres muy bueno en las crisis». Así que ahí tienes una oportunidad de serlo. So, just so you can give you an opportunity to be good in a crisis. Así que, para darte la oportunidad de ser bueno en una crisis. And I would say that my normal resting um you know, my resting state is to not be resting. Yo diría que mi estado de reposo normal, ¿sabes?, mi estado de reposo es no estar tranquilo. So, I tend to be a little bit wound all the time, but I don't get especially wound. Así que tiendo a estar un poco tenso todo el tiempo, pero no me tenso especialmente. In fact, things slow down for me. De hecho, las cosas se ralentizan para mí. I'm used to seeing things uh like that. Estoy acostumbrado a ver cosas así. They're in slow motion, and I become very sensitive to what the people around me are thinking and trying to, you know, get them uh most of the time like at Goldman and and in most most of life in a crisis time, the really important thing is just to get people to do their jobs and to stop being, you know, stop, you know, don't be frozen and don't be uh don't submit to the chaos. Van en cámara lenta y me vuelvo muy sensible a lo que las personas a mi alrededor necesitan, no a lo que yo necesito. Do you think that was like a nate or was there something from your childhood that sort of like helped kind of breed that temperament? ¿Crees que fue algo innato o hubo algo de tu infancia que lo desarrolló? I don't know. No sé. I wouldn't have predicted that about myself, but I've now gone through, you know, we, you know, going, we had the crisis of the century roughly every four or five years. No lo habría predicho de mí mismo, pero ahora he pasado por, ¿sabes?, creo que suficientes situaciones de crisis. Um, and it's always that way. Y siempre es así. But, by the way, it doesn't mean I like crises and I wouldn't go out of my way to volunteer to be in one. Pero, dicho esto, no significa que me gusten las crisis ni que las busque. It's just that when it happens, I I I generally have confidence that I'm not going to get dis that I'm not trying to tempt the fates. Solo que cuando ocurre, generalmente confío en que no me voy a descomponer y en que si yo me descompongo, todo el mundo se va a descomponer. If I'm going to get discombobulated, everyone is going to get discombobulated before me. Si yo me voy a desmoronar, todo el mundo se va a desmoronar, porque si hasta yo me desmorono, todos están perdidos. That's how I that's how, you know, and so I I've done that. Así funciono, ¿sabes?, y eso lo he hecho. And by the way, that that taught me a lot about, you know, the people that you need to rely on because you can't really tell, Y eso, ¿sabes?, me enseñó mucho sobre la gente que necesitas a tu alrededor. you know, I mean, not to coin a phrase, but you can't tell a book by its color. ¿Sabes?, no quiero inventar la frase, pero las apariencias engañan. And I, you know, I went through and, you know, maybe this is out of sequence, but I went through the financial crisis and we had, you know, we had people, you know, and thinking one in particular who was great athlete, terrific guy, real man's man, you know, Y yo, ¿sabes?, pasé por esto y tal vez sea fuera de orden, pero en el FBI o en el Secret Service, el tipo que parecía más intimidante did rodeos on the weekend and hacía rodeos los fines de semana y and he was, you know, terrible. era, ¿sabes?, pésimo. Yep. Sí. And you know and then here I am the co co-president of the firm you know here Y ¿sabes?, luego estoy yo siendo co-presidente de la empresa, ¿sabes?, aquí I am trying to teach people how to me and you know trying to say you know you have to breathe and then there were people who didn't look like they could walk up a whole flight of stairs tratando de enseñar a la gente cómo conmigo, ¿sabes?, intentando decirles que tienen que and they were you know really good and so you know just people you know you just don't know y eran muy buenos, así que, ¿sabes?, la gente es, ¿sabes?, simplemente and that's why y por eso I mean my advice uh you know when you when you pick board members Mi consejo, ¿sabes?, cuando eliges miembros del consejo yep sí and by this is a very I'm turning something that's generic into a very narrow things. y esto es muy, estoy convirtiendo algo genérico en algo muy concreto I I think a good place to go is find people who've already gone through a crisis because to me, people who look like and sound like Creo que un buen lugar al que acudir es encontrar personas que ya hayan pasado por una crisis. they'll get through it. saldrán adelante. It's not really uh En realidad no es I'm not sure how much of a correlation there is to the to the to the reality of it, but when somebody's gone through a crisis, I think that's your best bet. No estoy seguro de cuánta correlación hay con la realidad de haber estado bajo presión y saber cómo responder. Totally. Totalmente. Well, I I definitely want to spend some time on on the financial crisis. Definitivamente quiero dedicar algo de tiempo a la crisis financiera. Obviously, was uh such a defining kind of period. Fue un período realmente definidor. Um but maybe to go backwards sometime obviously you um Pero tal vez para ir hacia atrás, obviamente tú you know, you had a very modest upbringing. ¿sabes?, tuviste una infancia muy humilde. Um, you know, I was curious like, you know, uh, what role did like living near New York City or Manhattan maybe more specifically play in sort of like creating ambition or or for me, you know, I didn't grow up in the projects, but I grew up very modestly as well. ¿Sabes?, tenía curiosidad de ver, ¿sabes?, qué papel tuvo vivir cerca de Nueva York en tu desarrollo? And where'd you grow up? ¿Y dónde creciste?